The Clues Pointing to ‘Widow’s Bay’ Beating ‘Hacks’

Katey: So when I came back from L.A. after a week of seemingly talking about nothing but Hacks and Widow’s Bay, I kind of made fun of the strategists who swore up and down that they really did love both shows even if they were working hard to help only one of them win. But I swear that I really do love both Hacks and Widow’s Bay! Given that Hacks co-creators Lucia Aniello, Paul W. Downs and Jen Statsky and Widow’s Bay creator Katie Dippold all got their starts at the UCB Theater around the same time, I’m betting they’re all right there with me — even as competitors.

One of the many things that makes this showdown so fascinating is the very different arguments each show is presenting to voters. Hacks is celebrating the conclusion of five excellent seasons while Widow’s Bay is the thrilling first-season wonder; both have Emmy favorites as leads in Jean Smart and Matthew Rhys, but they’re in separate categories (phew). And even though Hacks does feel like the overdog in this matchup, it’s somehow only won best comedy series once, and more than deserves a second win. Sure, you could say you can just wait and give it to Widow’s Bay next time, but we know how fickle Emmy attention can be!

I go back and forth on who I think will win comedy series constantly, so I’m chickening out and throwing it to you, Chris. I think you’re less invested than me and might be able to see things more clearly — who’s going to win here?

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Chris: This kind of feels like One Battle After Another versus Sinners all over again — no matter who wins, we all win. Both shows are great and, crucially, have near-perfect ratings in the public discourse; it’s a lot different than it was two years ago, when Hacks defeated presumed favorite The Bear just as everyone was getting awfully tired of The Bear.

So I’m not surprised the consensus here is that there is no consensus. Among our Prestige Junkie pundits, 75 percent have Hacks versus 17 percent for Widow’s Bay; but on the prediction markets, Widow’s Bay has the slight advantage, 58 percent to 38 percent. Still, you asked me who I think is going to win, and I have to go with my head and say Widow’s Bay for the simple reason that it appears just too strong against Hacks in several other categories.

Let’s start here: Since winning best comedy writing for its pilot episode, Hacks has never beaten another pilot for the award — losing to the pilots for Abbott Elementary, The Bear and The Studio. In fact, the only other Emmy writing win Hacks secured came in 2024 — when it defeated four other non-pilots. Apologies to the prediction markets, where Hacks has the edge, but that overall trend makes Dippold — a nominee for, you guessed it, the Widow’s Bay pilot — my pick to win this year.

In the directing category, Aniello has won just once, for the Hacks pilot; in other years, she was nominated but lost to the directors of first-year shows, including The Bear and The Studio. That doesn’t mean she can’t win again this year, but here’s a bit of a red flag: The comedy series winner typically carries directing — unless there’s a major vote split. That’s what happened in 2021, when Ted Lasso won best comedy series over Hacks, but Aniello defeated three Ted Lasso directing nominees. (A similar outcome happened in 2017, when Donald Glover won directing for Atlanta, beating three nominees from series winner Veep.)

Well, when Hacks won series in 2024, guess what? Aniello lost directing to Christopher Storer for The Bear, one of the true outlier defeats in recent Emmy memory based on the end result. To me, that’s a lot of smoke that leads to Hiro Murai winning forWidow’s Bay.

Then there are the acting races: You rightfully pointed out that Smart and Rhys seem locked to win their respective categories without competition from the opposing show to worry about. But we have Hacks and Widow’s Bay head-to-head in the supporting races — and both, to my eyes, are trending toward Widow’s Bay. I’ll let you bite into those, but suffice it to say, I’m unfortunately running out of places beyond Jean Smart where Hacks might actually win; if that holds true and it only secures one or two of those 24 overall nominations, how can it win series, too?

Katey: I did entertain the idea of a Jean Smart vs. Lisa Kudrow showdown back in the spring, and would still love for this to be more of a race, but I don’t think the final season of The Comeback ever really caught on enough to make that competitive. Meanwhile, I remember the lightning-bolt moment of clarity I had in early June: Matthew Rhys truly had no competition in the actor race, and I’ve been gratified to watch that stay true; right now he’s got a whopping 92 percent chance, according to the prediction markets. 

So, yeah, the action is really in the supporting categories, much as it is in the drama race. Hannah Einbinder is the reigning champion in supporting actress after getting her long-overdue first win last year, but now faces internal competition for the first time thanks to Megan Stalter scoring her own overdue first nomination for Hacks. Meanwhile, both Kate O’Flynn and Dale Dickey are nominated for Widow’s Bay, further proving the show’s strength and creating the potential for vote-splitting, too. 

But let’s be honest: The race is down to Einbinder and O’Flynn, and given the way people have been reacting when Kate O’Flynn walks into a room, I think it’s hers to lose. She’s the breakout star of the year’s breakout series — and with a part in Mike Leigh’s possible last film debuting at the fall festivals in just a few weeks, O’Flynn may only be at the beginning of her ascendance. 

That brings us to what I think may be the most chaotic Emmy category of all, for the second year in a row: supporting actor in a comedy. If you want to predict another huge upset win like Jeff Hiller’s last year, maybe this goes to Colman Domingo, who is once again the sole nominee from The Four Seasons? Maybe years of comeback vibes around Harrison Ford finally result in a win for Shrinking, or maybe scene-stealer Michael Urie gets that show’s first-ever acting trophy? Nick Offerman is a double nominee for both Death by Lightning and Margo’s Got Money Troubles, so maybe that’s a sign of affection that could propel him to the top?

The simplest answer is that Stephen Root is powered by the Widow’s Bay phenomenon to his own long-overdue first Emmy win — but I’m not sure he’s gotten enough attention in the show’s Emmy run to make that happen. But again, this is a chaotic category where anything can happen — as we saw last year. So where are you leaning?

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Chris: Well, I’ll tell you this much — as the days go on, I keep thinking Domingo might be this year’s Hiller, a lone nominee pulling off an outrageous and unexpected upset. But even I’m not bold enough to predict that kind of upset: not a single pundit is on the Domingo bandwagon, and his prediction market odds sit at 4 percent. Instead, I’ll go with a more realistic unlikely winner: Hacks’ Paul W. Downs, who was somehow snubbed last year in the category and is now back again.

Downs is an Emmy winner as co-creator and co-writer of Hacks, but he’s never won for acting. That’s unfortunate, because, from my perspective, he had maybe the trickiest part on Hacks. Downs’ Jimmy was often placed inside the show’s most broadly comic situations, but he always played the reality — a challenge, seemingly, as Stalter’s Kayla was spinning off into orbit (complimentary). And then he also had to land several key emotional beats — including telling Einbinder’s Ava that Smart’s Deborah had decided to end her life rather than undergo treatment for her cancer.

In some ways, Root feels a little like Ike Barinholtz last year — the lone supporting actor nominee from the series winner in The Studio who never seemed like a true frontrunner. Despite Barinholtz’s great performance, he wasn’t the scene-stealer, and he lost to Hiller. I worry about that with Root, which would leave room for Downs to win… unless this is how Tyler James Williams wins his first Emmy for Abbott Elementary, a show that continues to have solid, consistent support from Academy members — if not wins to show for it.

Katey, before I flip-flop again, let’s quickly hit the guest categories, where Widow’s Bay could finally make Betty Gilpin the Emmy winner she deserved to be for Netflix’s Glow all those years ago. (Never forget or forgive!)

Katey: How great would it be to get his-and-hers Emmy wins for Gilpin and Hamish Linklater, who plays her terrible husband in the flashback episode of Widow’s Bay and then returns as an undead Puritan corpse? Gilpin has the added advantage of facing off against a slew of Hacks actresses, all of whom are deserving but seem likely to cancel each other out. I have completely fallen in love with Lauren Weedman after she stole the show at our Women Shaping Television luncheon, and her Mayor Jo is one of the best long-running gags on Hacks. But even I don’t know how you choose between her and Kaitlin Olson as Deborah Vance’s daughter DJ, or the incredible double act of Cherry Jones and Leslie Bibb in the Montecito episode. 

So unless Jamie Lee Curtis is even more powerful than we realized and wins again for The Bear, I think this is wrapped up for Gilpin, a deserving winner if I’ve ever seen one. Unfortunately for Linklater, though, The Bear is a lot stronger in his category, with Rob Reiner nominated posthumously for his role as the menschy restaurant consultant Albert. 

Had Reiner not tragically died in December, we might be talking about the odds for Michael J. Fox’s moving work on Shrinking, or more likely Connor Storrie winning for Saturday Night Live, since Heated Rivalry isn’t eligible. But I can’t imagine any voter looking at their ballot and not choosing Reiner, whose only two previous Emmy wins came back in the ’70s for All in the Family. 

Chris, back to you for one last round — want to disagree with me on anything, or should we go ahead and send Betty Gilpin a congratulatory fruit basket? 

Chris: I’m going to place an order on Goldbelly right now.