It’s hard to argue with the success of Michael — $97 million in North America and almost $220 million worldwide, the biggest opening ever for a biopic of any kind. But the controversial, critically derided Michael Jackson movie masked a deeper problem with the theatrical business, including five movies in the top 10 — A24’s Mother Mary and Universal’s You, Me & Tuscany among them — that grossed less than $2 million for the weekend.
“There was a lot of talk at CinemaCon about how 60-day windows would be great for the business,” says Sean McNulty. “But the movies that are there now, audiences are not coming out to see weeks later. You need more movies here. Outside of things like Project Hail Mary, which will play for weeks, everything else falls off pretty quickly.”
The expectation is that Michael will also play for weeks — 85 percent of exit audiences polled by PostTrak gave the Antoine Fuqua movie a “definite recommend” — and could reach $600 million or more at the global box office. However, if it lags, that could set up a potentially challenging May for the industry, especially since The Devil Wears Prada 2, Mortal Kombat II and The Mandalorian and Grogu might unfavorably compare with the 2025 May hits like Thunderbolts, Mission: Impossible — The Final Reckoning and Disney’s live-action Lilo & Stitch.
“I don’t think it’ll be this bad, but this May reminds me of two years ago, when The Fall Guy, Furiosa and IF all struggled,” says Christopher Rosen. “This May could be closer to that May than last May, which is a tongue-twister and a problem.”
