Welcome to the final installment of our four-part series highlighting the ups and downs of the Emmy race and the latest predictions at Prestige Junkie Pundits. Earlier, we handicapped the drama and comedy races and pondered which surprises might emerge — and some did! — at the Creative Arts Emmys.
Today, we wrap things up by looking at what actually triumphed on the first two nights of the Emmy Awards — hello, Widow’s Bay! — and trying to figure out what that can tell us about what’s coming at the primetime broadcast on Monday.
Katey Rich: Chris, just in case I missed the results from Sunday’s second night of Emmy Awards, the PR professionals of the world were on the case. I received multiple email blasts letting me know that Apple led all other networks in Emmy wins from the first two nights, and that Widow’s Bay led all other programs, with eight wins in its ledger before the main Emmy broadcast even begins.
To be fair to them, those are pretty good bragging rights.
And with all due respect to Apple’s other Emmy winners Margo’s Got Money Troubles, Pluribus, Palm Royale and Mr. Scorsese, the real story is once again Widow’s Bay, which now seems to have everything it needs to take home the top comedy series Emmy on Monday. I say that, as always, with immense respect for Hacks, which, as you have pointed out, has never done especially well in the technical categories. The HBO Max series did get its first-ever Emmy for editing on Sunday night, but was otherwise outdone by Widow’s Bay basically everywhere.
And it’s not just that Widow’s Bay won so many awards, but they felt so deserved! Betty Gilpin is, at long last, an Emmy winner after three previous nominations for GLOW, and delivered an acceptance speech in poem form that you really have to hope they edit into the main broadcast somehow.
I was also thrilled to see Widow’s Bay recognized for casting — they got Kate O’Flynn to take her first acting job in America, among many other triumphs — and in the sound categories, because there’s no good horror without sound design to amp it up. I know you’re not as big a Widow’s Bay diehard as I am (though I know your wife is working hard to get you on our side), but anything that stood out to you among those wins? And are you seeing anything that suggests Hacks might stage a surprise comeback on Monday night?
Chris: I think if you’re going to make a case for Hacks now, a good place to start is with that editing win. Hacks has never won there, and besting Widow’s Bay — a show that arguably works precisely because of the work its three separately nominated editors did in maintaining the tonal balance — was impressive.
But an editing win isn’t a cheat code for best comedy series. Note that when Hacks upset The Bear in 2024, The Bear won editing. Plus, overcoming a three-way vote split — as Widow’s Bay would have done — is incredibly rare. Since 2000, in the drama and comedy editing categories, it’s happened only four times: Orange Is the New Black in comedy, and Breaking Bad, Game of Thrones, and Pluribus this year in drama.
Still, a win’s a win — and the fact that Hacks beat Widow’s Bay there, and that Widow’s Bay couldn’t sweep the guest acting categories (with Hamish Linklater losing to Rob Reiner in guest actor), shows me there’s still a slight bit of doubt heading into Monday’s show. I will keep Widow’s Bay at the top of my picks, where it’s been for weeks. But if Hacks pulls off a writing or directing win, watch out.
While comedy remains the lifeblood of this year’s Emmy cycle, the same can’t be said for drama: The Pitt is steamrolling to a win, adding unexpected victories at the Creative Arts Emmys for guest actor Ernest Harden Jr. and for music and lyrics over the likes of Hacks and Lady Gaga. I actually think people are maybe underestimating how many Primetime Emmys The Pitt might win — the floor is maybe series, directing and two acting awards for Noah Wyle and Katherine LaNasa. But I wouldn’t be shocked if the show adds writing and a supporting actor award, too. (Patrick Ball remains my pick there.)
Then there’s limited series, where — thanks to the Television Academy’s choice to boot major limited series awards off the main telecast — we have a really great idea about how that one will ultimately shake out. So, out of respect to Widow’s Bay and the reps who reminded us how well it did over the weekend, the biggest winner of the Creative Arts Emmys ceremonies was DTF St. Louis, which topped Beef head-to-head in both supporting categories and also writing and directing. That’s suboptimal for Beef, a show we both consider to be a masterpiece, so I’m ready to accept that DTF St. Louis will win limited series. But how do you think those wins impact the lead acting races? Beef stars Carey Mulligan and Oscar Isaac don’t have to face any DTF actors in those categories — but with how the Academy has responded to Beef, are they still going to be left politely clapping in the crowd as their competition hoists an Emmy on Monday night?
Katey: I have come to accept that I will never entirely understand how DTF St. Louis became such an overwhelming favorite this season. A handful of real-life friends recommended the show to me back in the spring, but in terms of hype it seemed far behind both Beef and Love Story, or even how much DTF co-star Jason Bateman was plugging his other series, Black Rabbit. But the show’s 13 nominations were clearly no fluke, and even though Beef has more total nominations with 16, the acting snub for Cailee Spaeny was probably an indicator that it’s weaker than we realized.
So even though neither of Beef’s leads has to compete against DTF, they’ve got their own major hurdles that I’m not sure they can overcome. Sarah Pidgeon is one of the true breakout stars of this year of television, and I think even people who were more mixed on Love Story won’t hesitate to vote for her nuanced but also effortlessly cool conjuring of Carolyn Bessette Kennedy. Yes, her co-star Paul Anthony Kelly was snubbed in the best actor category, but just as Michelle Williams easily outshone Sam Rockwell on Fosse/Verdon, this show was really Pidgeon’s all along.
The category for lead actor in a limited series might be one of the low-key strangest of the entire Emmys, featuring two sole nominees for their shows (Richard Gadd in Half-Man and Riz Ahmed in Bait), Bateman for Black Rabbit and then two murderers: Charlie Hunnam for Monster: The Ed Gein Story and Matthew Rhys for The Beast in Me.
I think Rhys has the edge for two obvious (maybe too obvious?) reasons: The Beast in Me is the only show in this lineup with a series nomination, which suggests a broader level of support. And he’s practically guaranteed to win for Widow’s Bay, and what’s more fun than seeing someone flustered to have to give two acceptance speeches in a single night? This year has felt like such a coronation for Rhys that it’s easy to imagine voters simply checking his name in a lineup full of shows they may or may not have seen. Or is that too simple a solution, Chris?
Chris: I’ve watched enough detective shows to know that simple is sometimes just the way it goes. So, yeah, I agree that Rhys has to be considered the frontrunner now — and his Widow’s Bay campaign is a large reason why. If you’ve already seen him at an event for the Apple show, why not just vote for him for the Netflix one, too?
But if it isn’t that simple, allow me to make a case for someone else — namely, Charlie Hunnam. It would be weird, since the buzz on Monster is so old that it’s swung back around to the new season premiering this month, focused on Lizzie Borden. But the win would kind of make sense if you squint and look at past history. This category is reliably kooky: In 2019, Jharrel Jerome was an upset winner for When They See Us over Jared Harris, who starred in series winner Chernobyl; in 2020, Mark Ruffalo won for I Know This Much Is True over Jeremy Irons in Watchmen, also the limited series winner; and, in 2021, Ewan McGregor took it for Halston over presumed favorite Paul Bettany for WandaVision, despite McGregor being a lone nominee for his show.
Sure, those outcomes might have reflected genre bias (the Emmys, like the Oscars, don’t love comic book shows, unless it’s for crafts). But I often think Emmy voters use this category to single out big, bold performance swings and breakthrough moments. Hunnam has been an actor for years, but Monster cast him in a very different light — in a transformative part, to boot — and in a show we can assume voters have watched. I’m not saying they didn’t also watch The Beast in Me, but if I had to bet on an upset, I’d go Hunnam despite his minuscule odds in the prediction markets.
Katey: This is a reminder to pay more attention to this category next season, because you’re totally right that there’s a strange history here that we don’t talk about enough! I loved talking to Hunnam about Monster last December, even though the show was a little trying for me, and I would be thrilled to see him win. Though I’m still predicting Rhys. Your powers of persuasion aren’t quite that good yet.
