Welcome to the third in our four-part series highlighting the ups and downs of the Emmy race and the latest predictions at Prestige Junkie Pundits. Each Wednesday, Christopher Rosen and I share our picks in various categories and, inevitably, argue about who’ll be right come the Emmys on Sept. 14.
This week, the Emmys that come before the Emmys: the two-night Labor Day weekend event known as the Creative Arts Emmys — for now at least.
Katey: Chris, I am certain you won’t follow every moment of the Creative Arts Emmys this weekend, since you’ll be at the Telluride Film Festival soaking in an entirely different kind of awards-season hype. It’s part of the odd, also-ran nature of this two-night awards ceremony, which isn’t televised live but will be edited down and broadcast on FXX two days before the main Emmys telecast later this month. When I spoke to Television Academy president Maury McIntyre for Monday’s newsletter, it seemed pretty clear they want to rebrand these awards — maybe after a rumored reunion with the National Academy of Television Arts & Science, which hands out the Daytime Emmys, among others.
But for now, they’re the Creative Arts Emmys, honoring everything from lighting design for a TV special to, as of this year, supporting actor and actress in a limited series. It’s such a long list of categories we can’t possibly cover them all, but trends always emerge from these ceremonies that are worth watching. To start with the big picture — and to save the fun acting categories for the end — this is where The Pitt will probably start its dominant run, and where we will really start to learn if Hacks or Widow’s Bay is out ahead.
I do assume The Pitt will do very well, though I wonder if Pluribus might notch enough wins in these crafts categories to feel like it’s surging. The Vince Gilligan show is, after all, filmed in stunning outdoor locations and takes big creative swings, which could give it an edge in categories like cinematography and production design. The Pitt only won for casting in the craft races last year, though given what a juggernaut it’s become since then, I think it’s safe to expect that to change.
As ever, I’m throwing up my hands when it comes to predicting the comedy races, so I hand it to you. Will creating an entire fictional town and pulling off pitch-perfect horror parodies help Widow’s Bay run the table for comedy crafts? Or does Hacks, or even another comedy, have an edge we need to keep an eye on?
Chris: I hate starting with a negative — especially for my favorite show in the comedy field — but Hacks has never done well at the Creative Arts Emmys. In fact, despite several nominations for its guest actors and five bids overall for Adam Bricker’s thoughtful cinematography, among others, Hacks has won only three Creative Arts Emmys: two wins for its guest actresses (Julianne Nicholson last year and Laurie Metcalf in 2022), and a trophy for its costumes (also in 2022). Otherwise, Hacks has typically only been a player at the main ceremony: Jean Smart, writing and directing and its 2024 series win.
So I’ll reverse this a little: If Hacks does win at the Creative Arts Emmys this weekend — maybe Bricker finally for his cinematography, or casting after years of missing in that category? — that potentially bodes well for its odds to win comedy series. Otherwise, despite those 24 nominations, it’s possible the final season of this all-timer show goes home after the Emmys ceremony on Sept. 15 with a single award, for Smart.
In the drama field, The Pitt should do better, but I remain unconvined. Casting feels like a lock again, and clearly any number of the guest acting nominees could score here, too. (I don’t think we should be sleeping on Tina Ivlev, who played the sexual assault survivor Ilana in the 1 p.m. episode — a performance so upsetting and authentic it had Mariska Hargitay giving Ivlev her flowers.) But I also think the structure and success of The Pitt makes it a little harder for its craft contributions to stand out; maybe this is too anecdotal to be actionable, but I don’t really get into conversations about individual episodes of The Pitt, just more discussion about the patients and situations. That’s a contrast to other shows, where it’s clear there are standout episodes among the season (and, on the flipside, episodes that don’t always matter that much).
So, which show might be the big winner during the Creative Arts Emmys? Might I suggest DTF St. Louis, which, thanks to the controversial format tweaks you covered with McIntyre, could win at least four major awards. That’s what I’m predicting, at least. We’ll get into Beef vs. DTF and the limited series field next week — but how do you think those supporting categories might shake out?
Katey: I understand the idea behind the entire cast of DTF St. Louis going in the supporting categories — very The White Lotus of them! — but I also think in practice it makes it very, very hard to predict any of them as winners. It sounds like you disagree, but please tell me how David Harbour or Jason Bateman will do anything other than split votes, or how Linda Cardellini having internal competition from Joy Sunday doesn’t just give an edge to Youn Yuh-jung or even Constance Zimmer, a real scene-stealer in that packed Love Story cast.
I know that DTF’s surprising Emmy nomination haul of 13 means that we should take it seriously as a contender here, and the relatively low viewership for the second season of Beef suggests not enough people agree with me that it’s a masterpiece. DTF does seem like the best pick for a frontrunner in the overall limited series category, but I still can’t figure out how to square that with an acting win. David Harbour does seem to have gotten out there to campaign more than Bateman has, at least based on my very anecdotal experience, so do you think that gives him an edge?
Chris: Here’s the thing with campaigning — or at least an awards season rule I’ve created for myself. When it comes to the Oscars, I don’t think it really matters — it helps with visibility, of course, but I don’t know if voters care that much about how many interviews a nominee does when it comes to picking a winner, especially because so many now live outside Los Angeles.
But at the Emmys, with a voting body primarily based in L.A.? I do think it helps to see these people pounding the pavement. So that’s one reason I think Harbour will prevail over his two costars, Bateman and Richard Jenkins. The other reason is the overall strategy: I think Bateman decided to run in the supporting category for DTF St. Louis to avoid stepping on his flashier lead acting work in Netflix’s Black Rabbit — and, as you know, it’s Black Rabbit that took up the bulk of his campaign work, owing to the fact that he also directed the show, too (and was nominated for his effort). So add all that up, and it’s no wonder Harbour is the prohibitive favorite in the category according to the prediction markets (he’s also leading among our pundits, but less decisively).
As for supporting actress, Cardellini is comfortably ahead according to the odds, and I could see her cruising to a win even with Sunday as a vote-split option in the category. But if we’re going on campaign vibes, I must ask: Has anyone done a better job of owning her narrative this year than Zimmer? At our Women Shaping Television luncheon, she stole the room from even Kate O’Flynn, putting a face and voice to the challenging and unfair reality facing actresses over 50. She’s exactly the type of working actor who the Emmys typically embrace (see Jeff Hiller), and while the same could be argued about Cardellini, who is overdue for an Emmy, I do think there’s an expectation that she’ll be great in something (see Dead to Me, No Good Deed, Bloodline). Zimmer is the surprise of the year in Love Story — and in a transformative role to boot. She’s a fairly big underdog on the prediction markets, but if I was picking an upset, I could be convinced it’s her.
Before we go, should we focus on the guest actors? I’m bullish on the Widow’s Bay duo of Betty Gilpin and Hamish Linklater in the comedy categories (Linklater would be an upset over the late Rob Reiner), but I almost have no idea how to manage the drama categories — Shailene Woodley and one of The Pitt guys? Help me figure this out.
Katey: I’m impressed that you believe in Hamish Linklater that much, but I still think that one is Reiner’s to lose! As for drama, you’re right that this could truly go anywhere. Shailene Woodley, another major highlight of our Women Shaping Television luncheon, personifies to me what I think this category is meant to be: a role that only spans a few episodes but is completely unforgettable, particularly impressive because the first episode of Paradise’s second season is almost entirely about her, a brand-new character who doesn’t even meet the main character played by Sterling K. Brown until the end episode two.
Like everyone else in the drama categories, Woodley has significant competition from The Pitt, but it’s hard to pick a clear favorite from the show’s three nominees here: Brittany Allen as dying mother Roxie, Tal Anderson as Mel’s sister, Becca, and Ivlev as a sexual assault victim reporting the crime. With all due respect to Miriam Shor (Pluribus) and Merritt Wever (The Gilded Age), The Pitt vote-splitting ought to make this Woodley’s to win.
So why isn’t that happening in the actor category? The Pitt has two nominees there — Ernest Harden Jr. as frequent patient Louie and Jeff Kober as motorcycle-riding Duke — and won this category with Shawn Hatosy last year. But while I think Harden probably has an edge as a sentimental favorite for The Pitt, all of the category’s remaining nominees are Emmy winners, which is a real edge! Jeff Hiller’s nomination for Pluribus is probably mostly a holdover from his delightful win for Somebody Somewhere last year, but Bradley Whitford (The Diplomat), Jonathan Pryce (Slow Horses) and Colman Domingo (Euphoria) all feel like real possibilities to me. I’ll predict Harden for the sake of it, but will brace for surprise!
We’ve mostly talked about the scripted categories here, but it’s worth noting that the first night of the Creative Arts Emmys, on Saturday, is largely dedicated to nonfiction and reality categories. I’ll be crossing my fingers for my beloved The Traitors, of course, and wondering if the breakthrough nomination for Summer House in unstructured reality programs could predict bigger things in the future for the larger Bravo-verse. I know you’re not much of a reality TV scholar, Chris, but anything from that night you’re especially eager to see play out?
Chris: It’s true: I’m not a reality guy. But I do consider myself a full-blooded Swiftie. So I’ll be keeping my eyes on the unscripted portion to see if The Eras Tour can beat The Muppet Show in the variety special (pre-record) category. Sorry, Miss Piggy; my heart belongs to Taylor Swift.
