If the release of highly anticipated trailers for Digger and Behemoth! weren’t enough of a clue, this is your official warning: Oscar hype season is about to start in earnest.
Today, the New York Film Festival revealed that the James Gray Cannes movie Paper Tiger will make its North American debut to launch the Big Apple fest. Not to be left out, the Venice Film Festival announced that the latest Danny Boyle film, Ink, will be its big opening night gala, and the Toronto International Film Festival added five new titles to its lineup — including starry efforts like the Cate Blanchett-led Alpha Gang and the Margaret Qualley vehicle Love of Your Life. Next week, both Venice and Toronto will reveal much more of their lineups, giving us a strong sense of at least some of the titles that will dominate the awards conversation between now and next March. Then again, given that last year’s best picture winner, One Battle After Another, skipped the festival circuit entirely, we might see a lot of glaring omissions on those lineups — and even more mystery to ponder as fall begins.
But while we wait for Venice and Toronto to shed a whole lot of light — I’ll have my take on all of it in next Thursday’s newsletter — I’ve decided now is as good a time as any to take some big swings. Taking a look at what we know for now about Oscar season, I’m predicting 10 of the big narratives, trends and campaign tactics we’re going to be seeing all over the place, and how some of them might work out for the people involved. It’s going to be a big year for reunions, for actors having to be in multiple places at once and for one very special group of puppeteers.
But let’s start with the top gun…
1. The Tom Cruise Campaign
If Tom Cruise were standing on top of a giant shovel on the Warner Bros. lot just to promote the trailer release for Digger, we truly need to prepare for absolutely anything once the best actor Oscar campaign properly begins.
Rumor has it that Digger — the satirical comedy from director Alejandro González Iñárritu about a wealthy oil tycoon (Cruise) who tries to save the world from a problem he helped create — won’t premiere at the Venice Film Festival, but whether or not we get to see Cruise riding a gondola (I’m still holding out hope!), there is surely so much in store. I’m especially invested in seeing him refuse to break a sweat on Hot Ones. But there’s also the possibility of a real Time magazine cover to go with this fake one, another heavily orchestrated reunion with Steven Spielberg or other Hollywood luminaries and maybe even a jump out of a plane for old time’s sake. Whatever he gets up to at the World Cup closing ceremony on Sunday will surely only be a preview of what’s to come.
Having watched Cruise accept his honorary Oscar last fall, I’ve seen how he can captivate a room — a power that was crucial to Top Gun: Maverick’s Oscar run in 2022. But winning best actor requires a campaign of charisma and vulnerability that’s on a whole other level. Cruise has been one of the most carefully managed stars of the century, but the push to receive his first competitive Oscar will require him to actually let down his guard — something that major movie stars can have a hard time doing! Is Cruise up for what might actually be the biggest challenge of his career? I truly can’t wait to watch.
2. The Big Lebowski Cast
After winning best original screenplay at the 1997 Oscars for Fargo, directors Joel and Ethan Coen followed up their Academy breakthrough with a decidedly more challenging project: the stoner noir classic The Big Lebowski, a movie that has earned great respect over the ensuing decades as a cult favorite, but it didn’t connect with awards voters.
But this year, Lebowski could get its revenge.
Take the Digger trailer, where it’s impossible to miss Lebowski star John Goodman, playing a fictional American president who seems somehow even more over-the-top than Cruise’s title character himself. Goodman has been tipped as a potential supporting actor contender for months — and if he ends up being nominated, it will be his first-ever Academy recognition. (I’ll pause a moment while you process your shock.)
Over in the trailer for Wild Horse Nine, Lebowski costar Steve Buscemi pops in a single scene just talking on the phone to Sam Rockwell — and believe it or not, Buscemi has also never been nominated for an Oscar.
Then there’s Sundance hit The Only Living Pickpocket in New York, picked up by Oscar whisperer Sony Pictures Classics, with a buzzy lead performance from Lebowski scene-stealer John Turturro, who — yes, indeed — is still waiting for his first-ever Oscar nomination.
Add Oscar winner and Lebowski star Julianne Moore into the mix for her role in the Jesse Eisenberg musical, The Debut, and you just need to convince The Dude himself, Jeff Bridges, to present an award or two to make this a full-fledged Lebowski reunion. (Tara Reid doesn’t have any projects in the hunt this year that I’m aware of, but it’s not too late!)
Being a character actor long overdue for his or her first nomination is a tried-and-true Oscar campaign strategy, but it’s rare to see three such titans in the same Oscar race, much less three who starred together in one of the most beloved comedies of all time. It’s not possible for Goodman, Turturro and Buscemi to all win Oscars in a single year, barring a truly wild tie, but we may as well make the most of it while they’re in the mix.
3. Another Oscar Horror Boom
Watching Michael B. Jordan and Amy Madigan hold Oscars for movies in which they, respectively, drink blood and bewitch children made it feel pretty clear that Oscar’s longstanding aversion to horror movies is on hold.
At least for now.
So this year may be an even more interesting test. Focus is planning a fall awards push for its springtime horror smash, Obsession, and in what seems like a weak year for best actress (more on that in a moment), star Inde Navarrette could stand a real chance at a breakthrough Oscar nomination like Mikey Madison or Lily Gladstone.
The studio definitely didn’t expect Obsession to become an awards priority, but they’ve at least been preparing to be in a horror mood, with Robert Eggers’ Werwulf coming on Christmas Day. After Focus’ Nosferatu got four Oscar nominations and was a surprise hit in 2024, I’m feeling very bullish on Werwulf building on that success and breaking in with best picture or even acting nods (speaking of character actors who are overdue — Willem Dafoe, with four Oscar nominations but no wins, sure sounds great in that Werwulf trailer). Focus itself is wildly overdue for its first best picture win, and though I’m sure the studio that brought you Brokeback Mountain and Hamnet wouldn’t have expected it to happen this way, they are well-positioned to ride this modern horror wave to victory.
4. Best Actress ‘Weakness’
Any time someone starts calling an Oscar race weak in July, they are inevitably about to be proven wrong by a whole bunch of exciting announcements — which is what I sincerely hope is going to happen with this year’s best actress race.
Several previous winners are in the mix — including Moore (The Debut), Helen Mirren (A Talent for Murder), Penélope Cruz (The Bunker) and Madison (The Social Reckoning) — as are previous nominees Michelle Williams (A Place in Hell), Renate Reinsve (Fjord) and Sandra Hüller (Rose and Fatherland, not to mention her supporting chances for Digger and Project Hail Mary; more on this phenomenon in a bit).
But none of those feel locked in stone the way, say, Tom Cruise does, which should leave plenty of room for something the best actress race often includes: a discovery.
It could be Navarrette, Being Heumann’s Ruth Madeley, the Cannes-winning actress duo of Tao Okamoto and Virginie Efira from All of a Sudden (which Neon dated for Nov. 25) or maybe even Mason Reeves, the child actress at the center of Sundance hit Josephine. Even better — it could be someone who’s not even on our radar. (It hasn’t been officially dated, but A24’s Chris Rock movie Misty Green, with Rosalind Eleazar in the title role, might be one to bookmark.)
5. #OscarsSoWhite Lurking
Again: It’s July, and there are a lot of movies that could surprise on the fall festival circuit in the coming months. But so far — just a year after Sinners, KPop Demon Hunters and The Secret Agent brought a wide range of cultural breakthroughs to the Oscar race — this year’s field is looking remarkably more homogeneous, particularly in the acting fields.
That doesn’t mean it’ll be another #OscarsSoWhite moment, like what happened at the 2015 and 2016 Oscars ceremonies when all 20 acting nominees in consecutive years were white. But it currently puts a lot of unfair pressure on movies already in the conversation, such as Lionsgate’s smash hit Michael and its acting contenders, Jaafar Jackson and Colman Domingo, and Neon’s Cannes debut Clarissa, starring Sophie Okonedo and directed by British-Nigerian twin brothers Arie and Chuko (if submitted, it could be the first Nigerian film ever nominated for best international feature). It also puts a spotlight on Zendaya, a two-time Emmy winner still searching for her first taste of Academy recognition — although choosing one of her performances might be a challenge.
6. Actors With Multiple Movies
Zendaya faces a very enviable dilemma in this year’s Oscar race: balancing a bravura lead role (The Drama) with supporting work in two practically guaranteed best picture nominees (The Odyssey and Dune: Part Three). I’m told her role in The Odyssey is fairly small, whereas she’s taking center stage thus far in the marketing for Dune: Part Three — so much so that I’ve heard people speculating she could take advantage of that “weak” best actress field and campaign as a lead for the third Dune. (Stranger things have happened!)
Anne Hathaway, meanwhile, has a solid supporting role in The Odyssey, making it feel like her likely path to a nomination for a year that also includes Mother Mary, smash hit The Devil Wears Prada 2 and the upcoming thrillers, The End of Oak Street and Verity. Fellow The Odyssey costar Robert Pattinson, meanwhile, may stand a better chance for the fall release Primetime than for either The Odyssey, The Drama or Dune: Part Three.
Sandra Hüller is somehow not in The Odyssey, but she will have her own busy balancing act among Project Hail Mary, Fatherland, Rose and Digger; everyone seems to think Digger is her main play, but Project Hail Mary’s enduring popularity could make that one a stronger horse in the end.
Despite being absolutely everywhere, these stars have all managed to avoid having people get sick of them. That can be the key difference between a nomination that rewards you for having a great year (Robert Downey Jr. in 2008, when he had Iron Man and was nominated for Tropic Thunder; Winona Ryder in 1994, when she had Reality Bites and was nominated for Little Women) and becoming a punchline (Chris Rock making fun of Jude Law at the 2005 Oscars for being in too many movies). Who can continue maintaining that careful balance? Presumably, many armies of publicists are working on it as we speak.
7. Olivia Wilde Comeback
After the critical failure of Don’t Worry Darling and the tabloid maelstrom that surrounded its release, it must be nice for Olivia Wilde to be on the receiving end of such praise for her new film The Invite. Reviews for A24’s Sundance pickup have been stellar (my buddy Sean Fennessey called it a “generational text” for millennials), and it’s already generating Oscar heat for costars Edward Norton and Penélope Cruz and for Wilde herself as a director and lead actress. But here’s a truly bold prediction for you: Rather than making it into the race for The Invite, Wilde will be nominated instead for best supporting actress for her turn in Behemoth!
Tony Gilroy‘s new film stars Pedro Pascal as a cellist who returns to Hollywood to work on film scores after years away from the movie industry; Wilde plays Pascal’s onscreen ex, and in the just-released trailer, kind of steals the whole thing with a couple of glances.
“When Olivia walked in, we were like, ‘Why didn’t we start with Olivia before Pedro? Holy shit. She’s just amazing,’” Gilroy said in an interview published this week. “She’s not an actor anymore. She’s a filmmaker.”
Of course, Wilde could also get in for directing The Invite — she’s one of the few female directors currently in the best director conversation — and then win for Behemoth! That scenario sets her up to be this year’s George Clooney. Recall what happened at the 2006 Oscars, when Clooney was a best director nominee for Good Night, and Good Luck and best supporting actor nominee for Syriana.
When he won the acting award, he said, “All right, so I’m not winning director.” Olivia, take notes!
8. Animated Originals Boom
Yes, Toy Story 5 is still dominating the box office and has rave reviews, so something would have to go truly wrong for it to become the first Toy Story film not to be nominated in best animated feature since the category was invented. But looking ahead and knowing Oscar’s fondness for big animated swings in recent years, I think the originals will likely lead the pack. Disney has the original fantasy Hexed arriving at Thanksgiving; DreamWorks Animation is backing Forgotten Island in the same September window that it opened The Wild Robot a few years ago; Netflix has Brad Bird’s original Ray Gunn; and Laika Studios has the stop-motion Wildwood from studio founder Travis Knight coming in October.
We’ve already got Pixar’s Hoppers and Sony Animation’s GOAT from earlier in the year, and there will inevitably be more international and indie efforts in the spirit of 2024’s Flow — Netflix picked up the animated memoir piece In Waves at Cannes, and I was a fan of the festival’s Tangles, which could be a solid contender if it finds distribution in time.
9. Widow’s Bay Bump
Call this wishful thinking from someone who is still sore about Hard Truths getting blanked by the Oscars two years ago, but I sincerely believe it: Mike Leigh’s new film Tender Loving Care, recently slated for a Dec. 4 release by distributor Bleecker Street, will fare better in the Oscar race partly because it costars Kate O’Flynn, the Emmy nominee and breakout star of Widow’s Bay.
As per Leigh tradition, details about this movie are still under wraps, so it’s hard to know if O’Flynn’s role is even big enough for an awards campaign — particularly since Leigh’s longtime partner Marion Bailey is the one being tipped as giving a “powerhouse” performance. But I’m counting on my fellow Widow’s Bay fanatics to come out for this one and get Mike Leigh where he belongs: back in the Oscar conversation.
10. Rocky’s Road
The best awards campaigns are often the ones with built-in mascots who can work the room — from Uggie, the dog from The Artist, and Messi, the dog from Anatomy of a Fall, to irrepressible child stars like Jacob Tremblay for Room. But you know what’s even better than a campaign mascot who has to eat and sleep? A puppet.
Enter Rocky the alien. The creature, who shares the screen with Ryan Gosling in Project Hail Mary and is voiced by puppeteer James Ortiz, will inevitably dazzle anyone who gets to see him in person.
In reality, Rocky might wind up being even more expensive to fly out for events than Messi was — the puppet used on set was operated by five puppeteers (called “the Rocketeers,” obviously), though there was also an animatronic version that might be able to walk red carpets in a pinch. Truthfully, I don’t care how much it costs: Get me my Rocky photo op. I’m an objective journalist, I swear, but I’ve got to follow my heart on this one.
