I reported on stars’ big new paydays as game show hosts, analyzed who’s seeing upside from this year’s box office wins, covered Hollywood’s creator panic after the success of Backrooms and Obsession and followed every beat of Casey Wasserman’s move to sell his agency.
Hollywood dealmaking started the year with a bang, but it might end with a whimper.
Interest rates haven’t come down as much as dealmakers hoped; the regulatory environment is mercurial, to say the least; investors are wary of the AI bubble popping; and all of those factors combined with geopolitical instability have investors in a holding pattern.
And it doesn’t seem like the $111 billion cloud looming over the M&A market — Paramount Skydance’s beleaguered purchase of Warner Bros. Discovery — will be clearing any time soon.
There is a unique set of circumstances in Paramount-Warners, which includes not only antitrust concerns with the theatrical blockbuster and basic cable businesses, but also a lawsuit from Paramount investors over the CBS settlement with President Donald Trump. That means, even if the deal were to fall apart, it’s unlikely to have direct ramifications on a future deal between two of the other large Hollywood companies. Still, a dozen state attorneys general successfully convincing a federal judge to temporarily press pause on the sale while the court evaluates the situation could further discourage companies that were already lukewarm about making moves.
“There’s a massive backlog of unsold entertainment assets,” says Matthew Thompson, co-head of Sidley’s entertainment sports and media group. “People have been sitting on assets they otherwise would have disposed of, which is and will continue to have an impact on value. Yet premium assets will continue to trade at premium prices.”
In today’s midyear M&A report, I break down the key takeaways from some of the buzziest deals so far with the help of corporate lawyers and investors including Thompson, as well as Integrated Media CEO Jon Miller, Content Partners Capital EVP Alphonse Lordo, Weil partner Tom Ara and O’Melveny partner Leif Cervantes de Reinstein.
Their analysis reveals:
- Why A24 is seriously looking at Letterboxd, and who else is circling
- What could finally trigger a Lionsgate sale — and the costly 3 Arts complication
- The most likely buyers for NBCUniversal after the Comcast split
- How NBCU’s fate could put pressure on Disney to break itself up
- Why dealmakers are bullish on Fox’s Roku acquisition — even if Wall Street isn’t
- How Netflix will get into the M&A mix — and spend its Warner Bros. breakup fee
- 3 big opportunities investors can get in on with smaller deals as the recently hot mid-market has stalled
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