☀️ WBD Movie Carnage, NBA Upside, Streaming Wins in Q2

Mornin! This is Sean McNulty (connect with me on LINKEDIN here if ya like or email me atseanmcnultynyc@gmail.com), and here’s the Hollywood + Media news to know on Thursday, August 6, 2026.

Where good news! LIV GOLF has found a new but undisclosed lead backer, so you can go back to not watching it like you were before.

AND: HBO MAX is doing a Gilmore Girls documentary.

YEAH: Gotta love TIKTOK withholding a safety feature from millions of users that would have shielded them from harmful content in the name of essentially A/B testing to see what it would do to engagement. One of them was a teenage boy continually fed videos about self-harm and suicide who later died by suicide himself, according to a Bloomberg report. Social platforms never cease to amaze.

PLUS: Definitely recommend checking out Lesley Goldberg’s insights into what’s afoot at PAR+ at the one-year mark of Cindy Holland / Jane Weisman / Efrain Miron joining the company in the Series Business column. A really great overview.

WELL: The U.K. has given a 👍 to WARNAMOUNT, agreeing with the EU that it won’t have too large of a concentration of movies given local competition there alongside the other studios. The U.K. also didn’t see an issue with WARNAMOUNT having too large of a concentration of kids programming.

• The cable TV bundle scale question there doesn’t really have a similar comp, and again, I think it is likely the state AGs’ stronger argument in the U.S.

THEN: Add America’s #2 movie theater chain (REGAL) to the #1 theater chain (AMC THEATRES), as well as #3 movie theater chain to a somewhat lesser degree (CINEMARK), in making statements in support of the WARNAMOUNT deal. Movie theater owner trade group CINEMA UNITED is still publicly against the deal.

• REGAL CEO Eduardo Acuna said the trial is only creating “more uncertainty and distraction that could be damaging to our industry“ and that “it is time for all parties to sit down and work out how to formalize these commitments.” (Meaning 30 movies a year from WARNAMOUNT, and I’m thinking the 45-day window, too.)
• What gives?
  • Well, CINEMA UNITED represents several hundred small movie theater owners, in addition to those Big 3.
  • Those non-Big 3 movie theater owners have far less leverage to negotiate distribution terms with WARNAMOUNT and its 30-movie volume than the Big 3, who seem rather confident in their leverage with WARNAMOUNT, which needs them for their movies.
    • Certainly an assessment I’d agree with: It would be very difficult to do a wide release throughout the U.S. without one of them — that’s not the case for a 4-theater chain in the Midwest.
  • SO: The state AGs’ lawsuit (and CINEMA UNITED’s support for it) is more fighting on behalf of those several hundred smaller theater owners and the customers of those theaters that could be paying more for their movie tickets if WARNAMOUNT uses its heft with the small theaters to demand a greater split of movie ticket revenue, thus likely raising the ticket prices at those theaters.
    • Or consumers could also see less choice if WARNAMOUNT requires them to keep movies longer (including the stinkers), or if those smaller theaters balk at WARNAMOUNT terms and book movies from other studios for longer instead.
    • Again, a situation that Matthew Frank covered distinctly in his tour of America’s small movie theaters last fall for The Ankler.
  • EITHER WAY: If WARNAMOUNT comes to fruition, any sour grapes from REGAL or AMC in particular about the combination in the future will certainly be, uh, extra sour.

BUT: At least mortgage rates are now back above 6.8% again.

WAKEUP Box Office Prediction

The tracking for the 2 new entries is . . . not great, so I’m just gonna sit back and enjoy the show this weekend.

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📉 Earnings Season

WBD proves ‘It’s a Business of Hits’ in 2026 — unfortunately, the hits were in 2025

Yeah, the topline Q2 numbers here aren’t pretty due to the movie business and the loss of the NBA on TNT.

• Revenue: $8.7B (-12% YoY)
  • Note this is a -$1.1B differential in one year’s time.
• Adj. EBITDA: $1.88B (-6% YoY)
• Free Cash Flow: $572M (-17% YoY)
• Net Profit: $149M (-91% YoY, although there were some big cost adjustments related to the PSKY deals that drove the big YoY change).

But WBD Q2 is really a tale of 3 different business trends. So let’s dive into:

• Just how bad the theatrical movie biz results affected numbers vs. the killer 2025, with some bad timing in the TV studio as well (and why owning huge Hollywood libraries matters).
• The real gains WBD is making in Streaming at the midpoint of 2026, and the noteworthy development in streaming at the “traditional” Hollywood studios in Q2.
• How the loss of the NBA is actually (relatively) a positive at WBD — and why the NBA is really the only entity that won the NBA rights deal battle of 2024, at least in 2026.
• Plus, how little the NBA affected the Streaming numbers, comps to profitability in the Linear TV-to-Streaming shift and more.