☀️ Summer ’26 Box Office Winners, Losers & Lessons

Mornin! This is Sean McNulty (connect with me on LINKEDIN here if ya like or email me at seanmcnultynyc@gmail.com), and here’s the Hollywood + Media news to know on Thursday, September 10, 2026.

Where I’m off to TIFF this morning, so first . . . it’s time to practice my anthem for customs.

SO: SNL set NY KNICKS star Jalen Brunson to host the season opener on Sept. 26, and here are your first 4 shows. Also, Martin Herlihy is leaving the show after 5 years as a writer, and 4 years of Please Don’t Destroy shorts (the group continues to perform live shows together).

NOW: Back to our regularly scheduled programming post-Labor Day — the Supreme Court has ordered the state AGs to file a response to the objections raised against their WARNAMOUNT lawsuit by the Iowa and Montana state AGs by Sept. 25, the day after the California judge will rule on the $1.9B bond matter.

• Even if it reaches the Supreme Court, it would likely be months before that happens.

GOOD NEWS: If you’re talking to someone with a new APPLE Watch — it’ll be listening to and recording everything you tell them. Happy 1984!

BETTER NEWS: I think we found our Film & TV tax credit money! Government leaders in 10+ states are hitting stop on the tax breaks for AI data centers. Dozens of other states have prepared, or are preparing, similar steps.

WELL: Just like Gen X in the ’90s, we now have two of our biggest Gen Z movie stars doing gambling app ads . . . albeit one with less clothing than the other.

ALSO: Gotta love sales of “to go” / food delivery from AMC THEATRES being nearly +50% YoY. Thanks, DOORDASH!

YEAH: Wimbledon is looking at the U.S. Open this year and saying nah, brah — it doesn’t have any plans for credentials for creators / influencers next summer, and if you bust out a ring light — you’ll be asked to leave (politely).

• No word on Wimbledon’s thoughts on the “feelin’ groovy” weed policy that the U.S. Open seems to be abiding by this year.

PLUS: The CFP is opening a negotiating window with ESPN to double the college football playoff system to 24 teams eventually (ESPN has right of first refusal on the rights to extra games). But wait — what about players having enough time to take their December final exams?

AH: Here is the July 2026 Gauge report from NIELSEN, where all of those video podcasts don’t seem to be moving the share needle for NETFLIX vs. YOUTUBE, which hit a new streaming viewership share high of 14.2%.

Again, the YOUTUBE number includes things like listening to music, Shorts viewing and many other things that NETFLIX does not do — but still, for the past 4 months, NETFLIX has been at or below its lowest share number for the previous 8 months.

The World Cup also drove PEACOCK to its 2nd highest monthly share in the past 12 months at 2.6%, only behind the Winter Olympics-driven February share of 3%.

Streaming also hit what I think is a new all-time high share of 49%.

AND: I’m hopefully going to be in a lot of screenings today at TIFF, so potentially no Wakeup tomorrow . . . but we’ll see how the day goes.

WAKEUP Box Office Prediction

WB’s Practical Magic 2 is looking at a pretty wide range . . . from the low $30Ms to a little over $40M if you’re feeling bullish.

I’m gonna go $32M to $36M myself.

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🍿 Summer Box Office Wrap

Yes, summer 2026 technically set a new U.S. box office record at $4.765B over 2013’s $4.756B, and was also +26% YoY vs. 2025.

Yes, summer 2026 also had an extra week vs. 2013, and 2013’s total was about $6.8B when adjusted for inflation. So, let’s keep some perspective.

ALSO: 2013’s top-grossing pic was Iron Man 3 at $409M vs. 2026’s Spider-Man: Brand New Day’s $924M (through Labor Day).

• SO: The 2013 marketplace had a much more balanced mix of moviegoing across product.
  • Summer 2013 also didn’t have its 2nd biggest movie doing 1/3 of its business via higher-priced IMAX tickets.

PLUS: Summer 2026 was also +9% over summer 2019 — but S&P’s INTELLIGENCE arm puts summer 2026’s actual admissions / ticket sales -248M vs. 2019, or -30%. So again — inflation and a greatly increased PLF/IMAX business are playing a large role in the box office’s financial turnaround.

BASICALLY: Count all of this as ya like . . . but either way — this summer hit a mark that many, many pundits and naysayers said would never be reached again, and overall was a winner, so take the win! Well, for some.

I’m going to pass on doing a studio-by-studio breakdown given this great disparity between the 3 top movies of the summer and . . . everything else.

• Spider-Man: Brand New Day: $2.3B+ and counting
• The Odyssey: $1.5B+ and counting
• Toy Story 5: $1.1B
• Then . . . we’re down to sub-$700M with a fast fall-off from there.

Instead, let’s take a close look at:

• Which movies were the Top 5 Winners and Losers of Summer 2026.
• The insights Hollywood should remember from what American audiences told it about its product this summer.