Netflix’s Season Two Problem Is All of Ours

A piece published by Bloomberg this week highlighted the stunning fallout between seasons one and two of several prominent Netflix shows.

Emmy-winning Beef (an anthology series that came back this spring with a whole new cast) dropped 70 percent; Tina Fey’s comedy The Four Seasons and Kate Hudson’s Running Point dipped more than 50 percent; and One Piece, a manga adaptation that was one of the most popular shows on the service in 2023, dipped 30 percent. 

Another series, The Night Agent, dropped 50 percent between seasons one and two, and then 35 percent between seasons two and three; Netflix is ending the show after its fourth season next year.

From Bloomberg:

Five shows out of hundreds — thousands! — of Netflix series is a limited sample size.

But the general point feels right. 

So many Netflix shows enjoy gigantic first seasons where the stunning new thing dominates conversation in a way that shows on other services rarely do. And then upon the return for a second season, the show is somehow barely noticed. It slinks from the stage like a one-hit wonder — when the crowd has tired of “99 Luftballons,” but is too restless to give “Just a Dream” a chance.

So what goes wrong at Netflix between seasons one and two? Is something going awry in the development process? Is it just a run of bad luck? 

After all, everyone has those. 

Or are we seeing some chickens coming home to roost about the tech world’s priorities versus traditional Hollywood models?

And more importantly, does it even matter if Netflix isn’t succeeding on these old-timey metrics of yore, given that the company’s meteoric rise is the dominant show business success story of this millennium?

Let’s get into it, but first, a note and some context: 

I’m venturing into territory where wise columnists hesitate to go — the dark forest of showbiz data. But I think there is a narrative-driven story to tell here. The numbers give you the shape of the problem, but don’t describe how it feels and smells. If it’s numbers or nothing for you, the internet offers some brilliant showbiz data nerds, starting with our own great Sean McNulty. I also recommend Entertainment Strategy Guy, David Poland and Stephen Follows.

But from this point on, we’ll be proceeding into the woods, math-free, and figuring out what the hell is going on here in Hollywood.

Join me if you dare!