Moana didn’t go very far after all.
Despite expectations to the contrary, Disney’s latest live-action remake of a classic animated movie from its library washed out with audiences over the weekend, failing to exceed even the lowest end of its tracking. Opening less than 10 years after the animated original and two years after the animated sequel, Moana debuted with just $43 million in North America, a figure comparable to notable Disney live-action failures like 2019’s Dumbo and 2025’s Snow White.
“The general assumption, and this really was apparent in tracking for a long time, was that Moana couldn’t possibly be Snow White — because Snow White was this much older property, and had not been around in many years. Moana is much fresher, more relevant to today’s kids,” says Shawn Robbins, Fandango’s director of movie analytics and the writer of the Box Office Theory newsletter. “But the flip side of that coin boils down to timing in a lot of different ways.”
To that point, Moana didn’t just arrive in theaters soon after Disney hit the jackpot with Toy Story 5 (which is now cruising toward $1 billion), but also one week after Minions & Monsters, which also disappointed in its debut frame.
“It’s part of a larger micro trend right now at the summer box office,” Shawn adds. “Everything came in hot — spring was on fire.” Among the titles that overperformed last season were Project Hail Mary, Michael, The Devil Wears Prada 2, Super Mario Galaxy and breakout horror hits Obsession and Backrooms.
“Then we hit June, the World Cup starts and we have this string of movies — with the exception of Toy Story 5 and Scary Movie, which, especially for its budget, performed well — that underperformed, from Supergirl to Minions and now Moana.”
That pile-up of misfires had Sean McNulty wondering if Disney executives got a little overzealous with the release-date strategy — especially since fall is lacking a home-run kids’ property.
“In November, Disney has an original animated movie, Hexed, coming out for Thanksgiving,” Sean says. “But the only family film in the holiday season otherwise is Warner Bros.’ The Cat in the Hat, which comes out in early November.”
As Sean notes, that’s still only two years after the animated Moana 2 hit theaters, but factoring in competition and options, it might have been better to wait a little longer.
“I think the date for me was the number one reason why it did as poorly as it did,” Sean adds. “I don’t think it was ever gonna do $100 million, but this could have done better. The date was just a miss.”
