This week I’ve fallen into one of the oldest traps in the working world — asking people if we can “circle back” to something after Cannes and Memorial Day, only to feel shocked by how much work is now waiting for me.
Apparently, I’m not the only one. Emmy hopefuls are being put through their paces as May winds to a close, with the June 11 start of Emmy nominations voting looming ever closer. In this first phase, everyone is a contender, which means some pitches may start to sound more like Hail Marys. I’ve been hearing from independently produced shows with no marketing budget, writers whose episodes weren’t submitted by the network but are trying to self-submit anyway and people who were too busy for me earlier in the season and are now magically able to make time. Hey, every little bit counts!
You’ll be hearing from lots of people in this newsletter in the coming weeks, and of course we’re keeping busy on the Prestige Junkie podcast as well — Tuesday’s episode featured my conversation with Riz Ahmed about his deeply personal but also very surreal comedy series Bait, and there will be a special Saturday bonus episode of the show featuring my live chat in Los Angeles with the team behind The Audacity.
We’re even doing bonus newsletters in this crazy time — yesterday I caught up with the supremely busy Brett Goldstein about the ways Shrinking has evolved across its three seasons (with a somewhat surprising fourth one now on the way).
But today I’m hitting pause on all those interviews to shine a light on something very exciting happening here at Ankler HQ: the Emmy season return of Prestige Junkie Pundits! We’ve gathered some of our favorite minds from across the awards-obsessed world to share their predictions about this year’s race, which you can find updated throughout the season here. I’m happily one of those overworked experts, as is my colleague Christopher Rosen — and, wouldn’t you know it, Chris is here with me today to pull back the curtain on how we made our picks, what’s stressing us out and what surprises might still be in store.
State of the Race
Katey: There are a lot of interesting individual races to get into and plenty of room for surprises among the nominees, but I want to start with the big picture question that feels like it’s haunting all of my picks: Is it really just going to be The Pitt and Hacks all the way down? Last year’s reigning drama champion and the comedy winner from two years ago both seem well-positioned to dominate their categories, if not outright sweep, and as I go through my predictions in the drama and comedy categories it’s hard not to just put them at the top of every single one.
Sure, the competition is different from race to race. Noah Wyle seems ready to cruise to a second best actor in a drama series in, while Jean Smart — who has four Emmys for playing Deborah Vance! — has interesting competition in The Comeback’s Lisa Kudrow and even a newcomer like Elle Fanning for Margo’s Got Money Troubles. I’m tempted to stack both of the drama supporting categories with multiple actors from The Pitt, much like season two of The White Lotus took up so much supporting real estate back in 2023. But then you think of all the buzzy performances on the current season of Euphoria, or the perennial Emmy heavyweight The Morning Show, and wonder how much real estate there really is.
I would love to know if you have any argument against The Pitt and Hacks winning their respective best series trophies, because I really can’t come up with one. But even beyond that, how dominant do you expect them to be? Is there a weak link in one of these shows that might only reveal itself on nominations morning in July?
Chris: You know I love to be a contrarian — I recently told our mutual friends Jordan Hoffman and Matt Patches that Jon Favreau’s Chef was better than One Battle After Another (Letterboxd isn’t my only outlet for deranged hot takes!) — but I am stumped in trying to come up with reasons against The Pitt and Hacks.
With the former, it feels like Emmy voters were only first catching onto the show at this point last year — it’s kind of hard to believe it only received 13 nominations for season one, and if it doubled that total for season two, I would not be the least bit surprised.
With my beloved Hacks — I think it’s in a fortunate position in that there aren’t a lot of other comedies right now to take its place as the season’s frontrunner. The Studio is off-cycle, and enthusiasm for The Bear has diminished to the point that I think some major snubs are at least worth considering. (Are Jeremy Allen White and Ayo Edebiri even safe?)
And yet: Hacks is also in its fifth and final season, and sometimes Emmy voters just kind of get tired of stuff they have loved previously. I’m not saying that will happen with the HBO Max comedy — I thought it stuck the landing in tonight’s finale, and I look forward to seeing Smart and Hannah Einbinder win Emmys again in September. But if anything pops in the next few weeks — maybe Margo’s Got Money Troubles, or what if it’s another Apple comedy, Widow’s Bay? — could Hacks be Severance to TBD show’s The Pitt season one? Maybe?
But let me leave you with another category to consider, one without a ton of precedent but some return contenders: Where are you on the limited series race, which feels more competitive than it has in years because there’s no surefire frontrunner (apologies to our fave, Beef, which proved slightly more divisive in season two than I expected)?
Katey: I’m with you that Beef’s cool response is baffling — I thought the performances from all four leads were so strong, and that the writing is sharper and more surprising than nearly anything else on television, particularly in the limited series field. With all due respect to All Her Fault, The Beast in Me and Love Story, the world of limited series seems to have shrunk down to glossy tales with some kind of true crime hook, offering great showcases for actresses but a weird lack of adventure in a format where technically you can do whatever you want since you don’t have to build toward a second season.
Sure, the second season of Beef might not be the juggernaut of the first season, but what do you think would beat it? I confess I haven’t yet gotten around to HBO’s Half Man, whose most ardent fans admit it’s a tough watch. I really did enjoy Love Story, which breathed life into a vintage Ryan Murphy franchise with its expert evocation of ’90s chic and Sarah Pidgeon’s tremendous lead performance as Carolyn Bessette. And you know I won’t skip my chance to mention Death by Lightning, the terrifically entertaining and surprisingly funny period piece that dares to cast Michael Shannon as the gentle President James Garfield and Matthew Macfadyen as the maniac who killed him. A surprise nomination for that show or its actors (Shea Whigham somehow has zero Emmy nominations??) would thrill me, but I never know if I can get my hopes up for the good kind of Emmy surprises.
We’re obviously going to spend a lot of the next few weeks debating this, so let’s save some energy and wrap it up with this: Who are the personal faves you’re rooting for, or stubbornly predicting whether or not the consensus is with you? I’m sticking with Billy Magnussen in lead actor in a drama series race for AMC’s The Audacity, because I think there’s room for surprise and I want more people to watch that show. I’m similarly putting both Erika Alexander and Tracy Morgan in my predictions for The Fall and Rise of Reggie Dinkins, a comedy so funny (and with episodes so short!) I have to hope voters will get around to it.
What flyers are you taking? And what will you gloat about when your wild prediction comes true on nominations morning?
Chris: I mentioned Widow’s Bay before, and so I would be remiss not to highlight Matthew Rhys (who could also get nominated for The Beast in Me) for the Apple comedy thriller that has delighted my social media algorithms in recent weeks. He’s great on that show, so I wouldn’t be too mad if it happened! But I also want to plant a flag for Shrinking’s Ted McGinley, whom you covered yesterday in your great chat with Goldstein.
“He’s just a fucking assassin,” Brett said about McGinley’s comedic chops as Derek on the Apple show. Goldstein is obviously biased, but that doesn’t mean he’s wrong. McGinley is basically a television legend, with credits dating back to literally Happy Days (plus The Love Boat and Married… with Children; he’s just a quintessential TV “that guy”). He’s also just so good on Shrinking that if he does get a surprise nomination, I think he could even win — think something like Katherine LaNasa with a side order of Jeff Hiller. But for now, I’ll take the nomination and the gloating. Come through, TV academy!
