It’s still hard to know how the Corona virus will affect Hollywood right now, which is what really matters about this international tragedy. But I don’t think it’s too early to thing of this as a meteor careening in the general direction of the film industry in particular.
It’s being reported today that the studios are convening “strategy teams” on this, which in today’s corporate Hollywood I suppose counts as a major victory in itself. It’s hard not to feel panic is the proper response when you read graphs like this about the impact the illness is having just in these early days:
The situation in Korea — which has been basking in an Oscars afterglow — is particularly worrying as it is the world’s fifth largest box office market. As we noted on Sunday, Disney moved Pixar’s Onward off of its date there while the Global Times reports local pics Call and Innocence have also been delayed. The Korean Film Council said last week that attendance was sharply down; a challenge, we hear, is fewer screenings because there are longer periods between shows so that theater teams can sanitize auditoriums.
In general, the studios have been left in a holding pattern over the status of their recently shelved and upcoming releases. Disney’s Mulan, a ballad to China — which was expected to be the major driver on the film — is looking likely not to have a day-and-date release in late March (a date was never set previously as the Chinese authorities don’t typically confirm until 30 days out). We hear that Disney is not mulling moving Mulan off its domestic date to coordinate timing.
Marvel’s Black Widow is scheduled for late April/early May in the rest of the world, and so hopefully would see a China release shortly thereafter if the theaters come back in time.
Universal’s first time at bat with Bond, No Time To Die, has seen its Beijing premiere and press tour cancelled. It has an early April UK date with domestic the week following. Again, there was no set China date, but it now looks like 007 will be delayed. The last Bond movie did about $84M in the Middle Kingdom.
Who knows how this will play out, but it doesn’t take much to set off a panic in our social media times, and, to strain a metaphor, just as the disease itself seems to affect mostly the old and infirm, so are elderly and decrepit industries especially vulnerable. It’s not like the world is addicted to movie-going these days anyway that it will be such a gaping void in their lives if they avoid multiplexes for a few months.
The prospect that movie theaters could be shut down in much of the world for much of this year has to be considered within the realm of possible scenarios, perhaps edging towards likely.
It’s hard to imagine how all these studios that teeter on the precipice of solvency sustain that. What for instance does Sony do if its film division is deprived of most of its box office revenue for the year?
But a secondary scenario suggests itself, that could have a permanent impact on the industry, well after the corona fades.
Say you’re the CEO of a certain telephone or cable company for instance, and you’ve spent the last year seething about your theatrical arm – the terrible low margin business and the intransigence of the theater owners.
Then suddenly a health emergency comes along that forces you – for the public good mind you! – Not to release your films in theaters.
But lo and behold, you know what could help cheer up the world in these horrible times? If you were willing to take the hit to your expected box office tallies (the hit that you don’t really have a choice but to take)…as it turns out, your conglomerate happens to have a brand new streaming service…that could let people watch these brand new blockbuster movies from the comfort – and safety! – of their own homes. Like now!
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