You are reading a preview of The Ankler, a newsletter about the business of Hollywood by Richard Rushfield.
So here’s the problem with Disney’s implosion . . . .
Disney was supposed to be the answer, the cure to Hollywood’s battle against the winds of indifference and short attention spans and piracy and international competition and YouTube.
Big IP was the bulletproof superhero that not only kept Hollywood relevant, but also put it at the center of the world conversation like never before. Big IP was the “flywheel” in modern parlance that spun a thousand strands of corporate earnings. Big IP was such a savior that it even reversed the hits/flops gravitational forces that had held Hollywood upright since its founding.
Big giant movies built around universally beloved Big Franchises screened to Massive Audiences.
Amazingly, Disney actually pulled it off, and the success was so great, every other studio had no choice but to try and follow suit, even if most of them never had a prayer of competing in that particular game. Following Disney into the promised land of Big IP had just about broken most of the studios, especially to the extent that none were able to replicate its success.
It was the Mouse’s Plan B that Roared.
So what’s Plan C?
Or are we seeing the limits of the other Plan C—the streaming digital future. Another Iger miracle is taking Disney + to 60 million-plus subscribers in just a few month. This was supposed to be the great shining path that would make the musty old theatrical business obsolete.
So with that booming business, Disney is just fine right? Streaming future handled; Hollywood is safe.
Plan D, anyone?
Slight aside here but stay with me, it comes back around.
Deservedly much blame has been laid on federal government and the White House for doing nothing to anticipate and plan for this threat right up until the moment when it consumed us.
Meanwhile, here in Hollywood, there’s been a fair amount of sympathy for our long-suffering CEOs who have seen their companies struck down, but these are things that no one—I mean, no one—could have anticipated.
But while we’re rightfully noting how this President and the government at large failed to plan for an event that we were constantly warned was coming, on our own selfish economic front, might we set aside a little blame for our CEOs who did nothing to plan for the iceberg headed our way?
I mean, I don’t expect the heads of entertainment conglomerates to have doctorates in epidemiology, but if you’re the head of a major corporation, isn’t part of your job to think about the unseen elements that could affect your company and do some contingency planning for them? To take a few moments every now and then to walk through their own plan for this or that black swan event?
Given that there have been consistent warnings that this was coming over the past decades and a number of near misses (particularly in Asia where Disney and others already have a bit of contact), if this is a black swan event it should’ve been high on the list of black swans. Significantly above say, an alien death ray, or a giant sinkhole swallowing Europe.
So once your people have told you that there’s a 4.5% risk for a major disruption caused by a pandemic in the next ten years, what do you do about that? Even if you saw what was coming five years ago, if you’re Disney, what would you do? Sell Disneyland? Start requiring people to wear hazmat suits to movie theaters to get acclimated? Accumulate more cash reserves? Set up emergency health-care plans?
Or maybe buy Netflix?
Fortunately, I’m a stone-throwing journalist and not the CEO of a major multi-national company so I don’t have to be in the solutions business. But it’s worth pointing out that no one seems to have been in it this time around. As far as I can tell, there wasn’t a company in Hollywood that was prepared for this on any level. That’s not the same as letting a nation fall ill and letting tens of thousands die when steps might have been taken to mitigate that, but as far as corporate leadership goes, why is that just okay?
The thing about this world of Big IP is that it means big bets on the table and not a lot of room for fallback, as we’re seeing.
So does this chapter tarnish the Iger legacy?
If in his final act he can somehow steer the company to the other side—I think emerging solvent is the bar we’re trying to clear here—then Iger will go down as a hero. How he does that and what the company looks like over the next couple years en route to that remain the big question marks while the company itself appears to be still searching for a plan.
Is Small The New Big?
There’s another thing that may indicate this moment will mark the end of the age of Big IP.
Which isn’t to say that Big IP will disappear from the screens – in the long run – but that its stranglehold over the imagination of film studios might loosen a bit. As noted: this game plan has worked out very well for Disney; mixed to horrible for everyone else.
One thing to think about on the road back is what kind of movies we’re going to be able to start making again, and who is going to be positioned to make them. Putting a production or film slate together is about managing risk, and what sort of chances are you willing to take. How much money on what star in what role is what it comes down to?
But now and for the medium term, the act of shooting has raised its risk profile to a non-negligible level. You can plan whatever you want about film crews living in a quarantine bubble, atmospherically radiated sound stages, thermometers shoved down everyone’s throats round the clock – every day you’re on set you’re still rolling the dice on a risk level that is significantly above zero. Which is to say prepare for a butterfly effect of if one grip sneezes in New Zealand, your entire production is shut down for weeks, with all attached costs. And the jury remains out as to whether insurance will cover this and if so, at what price.
This has been a preview of today’s edition of The Ankler, the industry’s secret newsletter. To read the rest of this issue, subscribe today for just $10 a month.
Also in today’s issue:
• Ryan Murphy: Senior Stories Thief
• Twilight of the Ari
• The Windows Kiss of Death
• Last Call for the Trades
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