If the best actor race is about multiple A-list men with long histories of success vying for awards recognition, consider the best actress contest its opposite: one major frontrunner in Julianne Moore followed by a ton of newcomers and breakouts, a handful of respected veterans and, by my count, just two no-argument, above-the-title movie stars (Zendaya and Emily Blunt). That’s fun! Assuming Moore is nominated for her barn-burner performance in The Debut, it seems very likely that the other four actresses joining her in the category will all be first-time nominees — including several names that were all but unknown a year ago.
Historically, actresses are far more likely than actors to win Oscars as newcomers, from Judy Holliday in 1950’s Born Yesterday to Mikey Madison for Anora just two years ago. But Oscar season has many different kinds of discoveries, and this year’s hopefuls can follow many different narratives on their way to trying to beat Julianne Moore. (Not that it’ll be easy, as I’ll discuss on tomorrow’s podcast with Christopher Rosen and Rotten Tomatoes awards editor Jacqueline Coley.)
As you can see over on the newly relaunched (and beautiful!) Prestige Junkie pundits site, there’s little consensus beyond Moore, which means those remaining four slots could be anyone’s game. For the sake of talking about breakthroughs of one kind or another, I’ll set aside the previous nominees who are in the mix — Helen Mirren for A Talent for Murder, Blunt for Disclosure Day, Sandra Hüller for Rose and/or Fatherland, Sophie Okonedo for Clarissa, Renate Reinsve for Fjord — and focus on the first-timers. If they’re getting their first Oscar nominations this year, how will they go about it?
Navarrette: A Star Is Born
The movie: Obsession
Age: 25
Previous credits: Netflix’s 13 Reasons Why, The CW’s Superman & Lois
It takes only a few minutes in any room with Inde Navarrette — and she is bound to be in a lot of rooms this awards season — to realize she’s become the kind of breakout star who changes the temperature of a place the moment she walks in. Curry Barker’s horror film was a box office phenomenon ($519 million worldwide on a budget under $1 million) for many reasons, but Navarrette’s lead performance as a dream girlfriend-turned-nightmare was undeniably crucial to its staying power. You don’t have to love horror (I sure don’t) or even love Obsession to recognize Navarrette’s star power
Horror hasn’t always been properly recognized by the Oscars (I can hear the “nominate Toni Collette for Hereditary, you cowards” crowd sighing from here), but last year’s awards bode particularly well for Navarrette. After Amy Madigan won best supporting actress for playing a child-kidnapping witch in Weapons, and Michael B. Jordan won best actor the same night for playing a vampire, the door really does seem open for a horror performance that gets everyone talking. Add that to Oscar’s fondness for minting new stars with best actress nominations, and Navarrette doesn’t just feel headed for a nomination, but one of the very few people who could actually be competitive for a win.
Zendaya: Megastar’s Moment
The movie: The Drama
Age: 30
Previous credits: Euphoria, Challengers, Dune, many Spider-Man movies
A superstar for nearly a decade now, Zendaya somehow had to wait until this year to have a big-screen role that matched the dramatic heft of her work on Euphoria, which won her two Emmys. Unless Dune: Part Three unexpectedly flops, The Drama will wind up being the lowest grosser of her four movies this year (The Odyssey and Spider-Man: Brand New Day being the others, of course) — but in addition to being a stealth financial success in its own right ($132 million worldwide), it’s also likely her best shot at a nomination for what’s been an exceptional year.
Being very famous and overdue for your first nomination can be a powerful Oscar campaign narrative — just ask Kristen Stewart, who got her first nomination for Spencer in 2021, or Scarlett Johansson, whose first two nominations for Jojo Rabbit and Marriage Story in 2019 happened after she was already the highest-paid actress in Hollywood. The Drama likely isn’t one of A24’s biggest awards-season priorities (they’ve also got Moore in The Debut and Olivia Wilde in The Invite, who I’ll get to shortly), but getting Zendaya her first-ever nomination would be significant bragging rights worth pushing for.
Reeves: The Child Discovery
The movie: Josephine
Age: 10
Previous credits: None
Beth de Araujo’s Sundance hit Josephine is a harrowing watch, made even more devastating by Mason Reeves, who plays a young girl who witnesses a brutal sexual assault after being separated from her father (Channing Tatum) during a morning run in the park. Reeves was discovered by a casting agent at her local farmers market, and her thoughtful, deeply felt performance is remarkable; watching a natural performer at such a young age explore dark themes on a set that clearly protected her is incredibly rare. (Be sure to watch my conversation with Reeves, Tatum, de Araujo and Gemma Chan from this year’s Toronto International Film Festival to get a sense of why the Josephine production was so special.)
Children have been nominated throughout Oscar history, but they’re often relegated to the supporting categories, which is almost impossible to imagine for Josephine. In the best actress category, Reeves’ only recent predecessor is Quvenzhane Wallis for Beasts of the Southern Wild, who was 9 years old when she was nominated in 2013. Keisha Castle-Hughes, nominated at 13 for Whale Rider in 2004, is the only other person under 18 ever nominated for best actress. But if any youngster deserves to become the third, it’s Reeves.
Eleazar, Coon, Madeley: TV Stars Level Up
The Movies: Misty Green (Eleazar), The Liberation (Coon), Being Heumann (Madeley)
Ages: 38 (Eleazar), 45 (Coon), 39 (Madeley)
Previous credits: Slow Horses, Class of ’09, Harlots (Eleazar); The Gilded Age, The White Lotus, The Leftovers (Coon); Doctor Who, Years and Years, The Rapture (Madeley)
The line between movies and television is blurrier than ever, but going from TV stardom to an Oscar nomination is still a pretty covetable career upgrade. Of the three actresses I’ve grouped together here, Carrie Coon is by far the most established in the industry, with four Emmy nominations, two Tony nominations, a Critics Choice Award for The Leftovers, and even stints in the Ghostbusters franchise and the Marvel Cinematic Universe for extra Hollywood bona fides. Rosalind Eleazar’s role on Slow Horses has made her familiar to American audiences, but she and Ruth Madeley have primarily worked in their native UK, which, as you’ll hear Eleazar tell me on tomorrow’s podcast, can be a much saner way to build a career.
Coon’s first Oscar nomination has felt more like a “when” than an “if” ever since her scene-stealing turn in 2014’s Gone Girl, and The Liberation — a cult-based psychological thriller from director Guy Nattiv — could be the film that makes it happen. Reviews for Misty Green have been less kind, but everyone walks out of the Chris Rock film raving about Eleazar, and she’d be far from the first actress nominated for a film voters otherwise didn’t have time for. The Oscar history behind Madeley’s campaign is complicated; director Sian Heder won best picture with her previous film CODA, but that film’s star Emilia Jones wasn’t even nominated. Being Heumann is a real showcase for Madeley, though, and if she can command a room even half as much as her character, disability rights activist Judy Heumann, does in the film, she’ll be an indomitable force on the campaign trail.
Wilde & Seydoux: Rediscoveries
The Movies: The Invite (Wilde) and Gentle Monster (Seydoux)
Ages: 42 (Wilde), 41 (Seydoux)
Previous acting credits: Her, Tron: Legacy, Richard Jewell (Wilde); Blue is the Warmest Color, Spectre, Dune: Part Two (Seydoux)
Very few people didn’t know who Wilde and Léa Seydoux were before this year, but many will probably never see them the same way again. Wilde kicked off her banner year by premiering the film she directed and stars in, The Invite, at Sundance. From there she sold it to A24 for top dollar and helped turn it into a summertime indie hit. Following that with a role in Gregg Araki’s bold comedy I Want Your Sex and a supporting turn in Tony Gilroy’s Behemoth! that’s apparently getting spontaneous film festival applause is just extra padding for a career resurgence that seemed so unlikely this time in 2022.
Seydoux hasn’t experienced the same public ups and downs as Wilde, but the French actress best known as a Bond girl and a recurring part of Wes Anderson’s ensemble has impressed audiences in two different films that premiered at Cannes — Arthur Harari’s The Unknown and especially Marie Kreutzer’s Gentle Monster, which Netflix picked up at the festival. Playing a woman who learns her husband has been accused of horrible crimes, Seydoux delivers the showstopper performance at the center of an otherwise quiet film.
Both Wilde and Seydoux have done their time as bombshells and now, in their 40s, are getting and creating opportunities to do something much more interesting. As much as the Oscars love celebrating brand-new faces in the best actress race, they’re equally enamored with veteran stars doing something new, from Julia Roberts’ triumphant dramatic turn for Erin Brockovich to Jessica Chastain’s Eyes of Tammy Faye transformation.
Efira & Jeon: International Breakthroughs
The movies: All of a Sudden (Efira) and Possible Love (Jeon)
Ages: 49 (Efira) and 53 (Jeon)
Previous credits: Elle, Benedetta, Paris Memories (Efira); The Contact, You Are My Sunshine, Secret Sunshine (Jeon)
Though it’s only been in the last decade that international films have regularly broken into the best picture race, there’s a long history of actresses getting nominated for performances in languages that many Oscar voters don’t even speak. Virginie Efira shared the best actress prize at Cannes with her All of a Sudden co-star Tao Okamoto (who will be campaigned as a supporting actress at the Oscars), which puts a well-deserved spotlight on her nuanced, incredibly empathetic performance as the head of a Paris nursing home. Jeon Do-yeon, meanwhile, emerged as the most celebrated of Possible Love’s ensemble cast following the film’s Venice Film Festival world premiere, where it won the Silver Lion.
There’s a caveat to Oscar’s strong history of nominating performances in languages other than English: most of those performances have come from European languages, with French and Italian particularly well represented. Minari’s Youn Yuh-jung is the only person to win an Oscar for a performance primarily in an Asian language, and that was in 2020! When Parasite’s ensemble cast failed to get a single acting nomination ahead of its landmark best picture win, it was an unfortunate sign that the Academy’s actors’ branch doesn’t consider Asian films the same way it does European ones. Could Possible Love and Jeon’s transcendent performance be an opportunity to change that?
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