William Goldman’s maxim that nobody knows anything here has endured as Hollywood’s favorite self-description, because it so perfectly captures the futility of trying to run an honest business in a messed-up, nonsensical space like entertainment.
But reading any Sunday evening box office round-up almost feels like Goldman’s Law has gone into hyperdrive.
Box office reporting, never the most stalwart of journalistic fields, seems to have gone over the rainbow. Was the film a success? Well, it was the highest-grossing movie with the letter K that starts to come out on an odd-numbered day! It was better than the COVID-lowered expectations! Plus 2/3 of what the VOD could possibly be worth equals…a blockbuster!
At the bottom of this is a question that dare not speak its name: is this an actual business anymore?
So rather than try and untwist the knots of Eternals numbers, comparing them to a fantasy-league Marvel game that add up to one conclusion — movies are back! — I’m devoting this issue to thoughts on the singular question – are movies coming back? Ever?
The Deep Thoughts follow.
i. What We Think We Know
As much as we know nothing right now amid the post-shutdown Apocalypse, a couple of rules have emerged that look fairly solid.
• Nothing can open apart from giant four quad event films
• Those can’t open big enough to pay for themselves
Which brings us to…what are we talking about here when we talk about box office? Just praying for rain? Trying to convince ourselves that the trace condensation is water enough to make the corn grow?
It reminds me of Les Moonves, even as the grim reaper circled, taking the stage at TV’s upfronts to marvel about the value of broadcast networks. Any kind of self-congratulation in theatrical feels a bit the same — a penultimate Hail Mary.
ii. Blank Tech
Can we agree that when an industry doesn’t know what makes itself profitable, or even what the benchmarks to profitability are, that’s not a sign of terrific health?
Optimistically, in a perfect world you could say this is a time of experimentation and transition, trying new things to find elements of a new model. But one man’s experimentation is another man’s grasping at straws. Or grasping frantically for a handhold as you tumble down the cliff.
However, profitability – which box office grosses are some element of – is such an old way of thinking. Netflix, the Plus Ultra Exemplar of our age, has rearranged the industry in its image without ever stepping foot in the same zip code as profitability.
But the tech world isn’t about profitability, because it’s not enough anymore to run a business that turns a nice profit like the Hollywood studios have done for 100 years (some decades wobblier than others.) Just ask Disney, whose shares got hammered by its earnings report this week because its streaming service, the invented North Star of a company previously driven by multi-pronged revenue streams from separate divisions, now is not growing fast enough. Bob II (cue Bob I snickering) said the company was managing its direct-to-consumer business “for the long term, not quarter to quarter.” And thus, the can gets kicked forward again.
The tech economy has taught us that the only position for a decent company to have is monopoly power. There may not even be enough oxygen for a Disney-Netflix duopoly in Wall Street’s winner-take-all mentality. In the race for that, profitability is meaningless. Market share means everything. Ridiculous valuations speculating on an eventual monopoly to enable more cash to fuel the race to monopoly.
And in the face of that, how (or why) does one evaluate what a weekend’s box office means? Compared to pre-COVID? With or without VOD, PVOD, SVOD? It all feels like some weird future exhibit in Disneyland’s Tomorrowland.
iii. Some Reasons Why Movies Will Live On, In a Post-COVID World
• Going to the movies is a unique experience, not comparable or interchangeable with anything else.
• As nights out go, it’s still relatively cheap and safe, especially for students and kids. Even with extortionate popcorn mark-ups, it’s less expensive than sports, music, theater. Which have all become even more extortionate than moviegoing.
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