TV Franchises: Winners & Losers in Streaming's New War
Universes and ongoing seasons are fast replacing originals
ESG’s analysis for paid subscribers runs every other Thursday. He recently wrote about how to bring $50M-$100M movies back; why rival streamers shouldn’t mimic Netflix’s genre-defining hits; and the audience chart every exec should obsess over.
The streamers seemed to have saved up their good stuff for April. (The pursuit of Emmys may have something to do with the timing.) All of a sudden, a few big shows in the Streaming Wars dropped back-to-back, including HBO’s The Last of Us, Hulu’s The Handmaid’s Tale and Disney+’s Andor. Meanwhile, Peacock has one of its biggest shows, Poker Face, coming back in May. That’s a pretty strong lineup of returning TV shows from the “not Netflix” streamers.
Speaking of Netflix, it still has a few of its biggest shows of all time due up sometime in 2025, including Squid Game (June), Wednesday (August) and Stranger Things (sometime this year).
Most of these shows aren’t just big, they’re top-of-the-streaming-charts popular. The Last of Us, for example, is HBO’s second biggest show ever, behind Game of Thrones, and Wednesday racked up the most-viewed first season on streaming according to Nielsen.
They’re also examples of shows that, frankly, take a long time to make. Consider the gaps between the start of the last season and this one for some of these series:
32 months: Wednesday (Nov. 2022)
31 months: Andor, The Handmaid’s Tale (Sept. 2022)
27 months: The Last of Us, Poker Face (Jan. 2023)
Not only that: Many of those shows aren’t just TV series, but the start of “TV universes,” the extended worlds that currently dominate cinemas. The mission today is to see how many franchise series each streamer has — and what that says about that streamer’s future. Just as I wrote about movies last year, viewers prefer IP and having more of it is how to win. In TV, Lesley Goldberg wrote about streamers’ appetite for ongoing series as a way to increase library, viewing hours and retention. In other words, more is more.
That long-term view is key: I’m looking for shows that won’t just bolster subscriber numbers in 2025, but could help in 2026 and beyond. Long-running series that can ideally spawn spinoffs have become an increasingly important tactic in the Streaming Wars. Specifically, I’m analyzing which streamers have:
A TV show that’s had two strong seasons so far, or one massive first season and is continuing on
Has the potential to be spun off to create a “franchise” universe
I’m using U.S. viewership data because, outside of Netflix, we just don't have great global numbers. (The good news, for Netflix at least: Nearly every strong Netflix show in America is also huge globally!) As always, critical acclaim isn’t a factor today. When it comes to winning the Streaming Wars, viewership matters more than critical love or awards. (Even if some of these shows are being released now for Emmy consideration.)
If I have doubts about a show being a franchise tentpole, you’ll see that I moved it into a “Maybe/TBD” category. (Your own list may vary, and I welcome the discussion!) So who’s winning that battle? Let’s start with the obvious answer, but after that you might be surprised.
In this article, I will show you:
My ranking of the seven major streamers in terms of franchise strength
How Netflix’s highest-profile series fare against rivals
The subtle shift in Netflix’s programming strategy — and why
Why Hulu’s success with half-hour shows gives it an advantage over rivals
The hit I’d fast-track for a second season to accelerate its momentum
Which streamer is best at turning its hits into spinoff successes
The streamer which has fewer franchises than you’d think
Why Amazon’s biggest problem is getting its franchises on the air
How Peacock could improve its fortunes by dipping into NBCU’s IP