How to Bring $50M-$100M Box Office Movies Back
Theatrical's backbone has been hit by 'eventpoles', stars' streaming migration & very bad marketing
ESG’s data-driven analysis for paid subscribers runs every other Thursday. He recently wrote why rival streamers shouldn’t mimic Netflix’s genre-defining hits; the audience chart every exec should obsess over; and content libraries’ unsung role in streaming success.
Let’s be honest: The box office is still struggling.
Yeah, yeah, I know: A Minecraft Movie just smashed records with its boffo $157 million opening weekend. It’s definitely more fun to write about the box office when we’re on a high rather than a losing streak. But as strong as Minecraft opened, I worry it actually portends more problems for theaters than it solves.
The domestic box office’s dismal Q1 led to plenty of bleak headlines casting a pall on CinemaCon. Doug Creutz, senior media analyst at TD Cowen, even warned of a “negative feedback loop” that could crush the theatrical distribution biz, writing, “we don’t think the existing global theatrical footprint can be supported solely by a handful of blockbusters.” But as he notes, reducing the number of theaters will lead to more films skipping a theatrical release, thereby initiating that doom loop.
Then Ted Sarandos, co-CEO of the biggest streamer in America, straight up called time of death on the theatrical biz:
As I’ve written before, it’s weird that an industry generating $8 billion to $9 billion in annual revenue is “dead,” but that sort of hyperbole is just our current media ecosystem at work.
The weak box office numbers, though, portend a very real problem: There are several billion dollars fewer today compared to the domestic box office (let alone the global market) at its 2017-2019 height. In trying to determine where all that revenue went last May, I concluded “supply, supply, supply,” meaning, simply not enough movies receive a theatrical release these days.
Although this remains true — there have been several weekends this year with no major new releases — reality is complicated and no one reason explains everything. In addition, I believe there are several other factors contributing to the box office not returning to its pre-pandemic heights.
In this article I will tell you . . .
The one big change theaters could make to encourage more moviegoing
Why megahits like Minecraft aren’t as helpful for the theatrical business as they may seem
What stars like Tyler Perry, Kevin Hart and Millie Bobby Brown should be doing to help
Why theatrical marketing is broken — and what could fix it
The risk of compensating for declining popularity with higher prices