A Semi-Farewell: My Favorite Ankler Data Dives
What I got right, where I veered wrong and what the numbers reveal about Hollywood’s future as I move to occasional contributor
Probably the hardest introduction to write is an introduction to a “farewell” piece.
(Though, as I’ll clarify, this is a partial farewell. Call it a semi-farewell.)
For those who don’t know, I’ve been writing guest pieces for Richard Rushfield going back to 2019. That’s right! Richard asked me wayyyyyyy back in the day (before Disney+ and Apple TV had even launched!) to attempt to value The Irishman’s streaming performance on Netflix as if that film had come out in theaters, using whatever data we could find. And I did! (Note: I don’t think it made money.) When The Ankler launched as a broader media platform, I wrote a weekly column, which eventually transitioned to a twice-a-month column I’ve been writing for four years now.
You may have noticed, though, that I haven’t published as much recently here, and that’s because I’m transitioning out of my regular columnist role to focus primarily on my own Substack newsletter/website.
You won’t be rid of me at The Ankler, though! You’ll still see me around these parts writing longer pieces and special series. I love The Ankler and its indispensable journalism, from Richard’s rightful calling to account of Hollywood’s power brokers, Sean McNulty’s daily in-depth news briefs to stay up to date on everything and Lesley Goldberg’s interviews with key decision makers, to Elaine Low’s terrific Ankler Agenda podcast and Matthew Frank’s dives into the film business, not to mention all the other terrific writers in the fold.
Before I step back here, allow me a quick journey through my Ankler archives to highlight a few of my favorite pieces, series, ideas and debunkings of the last few years. Scanning through my work here, I’m reminded how much I loved writing these columns and how much I appreciate The Ankler for amplifying my voice. Thank you, Richard and Janice.
My Favorite Articles
I. The American Viewer Series
This is probably the most cited series I’ve written for The Ankler, so I’ll just say most folks should reread it:
And an update here:
Is this series ripe for another update as our politics and culture appear to have undergone so many drastic shifts in recent years? Absolutely.
II. Let’s Pop Some Bubbles!
I hate hype, and I love trying to pop bubbles before they inflate. In 2022, in particular, I called out the streaming production bubble, and after the strikes of 2023, it definitely popped.
Based on that article’s success, I called out a few more bubbles in 2022 and watched them pop too. Most recently, for example, we saw the production stage gold rush disappear.
I was skeptical of esports, and sure enough, investors have mostly lost money.
As for NFTs, I’m still waiting for these digital tokens to transform Hollywood, and have a feeling I always will be. (Notably, most NFT boosters seamlessly moved onto AI…)
III. Over-Hyped Genres, Formats and Producers
Another favorite target: hype cycles for overrated genres or formats. It’s tempting, based on the success of a given show or film, to think that it represents a brand new model for others to emulate. More often than not, though, it’s a one-off that’s not easily repeated.
Take one of the first formats I called out: the foreign-language TV show.
In 2021, Squid Game took America by storm, and many folks opined that this represented a new model for streaming that would change the game. At the time and after, I was much more skeptical… and that skepticism has been vindicated. We’re still waiting for the next Squid Game, meaning an overseas juggernaut.
That’s hardly the only genre or format or sports league or producer I’ve doubted over the years, mostly calling out the hype in real time: animation for adults, Formula 1, musicals, sports documentaries and docu-series, celebrity production companies and more.
Over at my newsletter, I plan to keep calling out overhyped bubbles and fads. Recently, I looked at MrBeast and anime.
IV. My Box Office Takes
Going back to my analysis of The Irishman, I hopped on the “films make more money when they go to theaters” train, and that’s mostly been borne out. After their brief, Covid-inspired dabbling with straight-to-streaming models, most streamers are now sending their high-priority films to theaters — and with the latest news out of Universal, now even longer than before! The exceptions are Netflix (which has tried to buy a traditional studio and seems to just hate going to the movies) and Apple (which doesn’t need to make money). Even Amazon is getting back in the theatrical game.
As I calculated twice, if the streamers just put their biggest films in theaters, that could revive the big box office of the 2010s. I also noted twice how, while we excoriate theatrical misses, we mostly ignore streaming bombs. And I called out the industry’s lack of animated films and its original animated film struggles.
V. IP Rules!
I love IP.
That feels like a big confession to say out loud in Hollywood.
But it’s true! Marvel? Star Wars? Dungeons & Dragons? Game of Thrones? DC? Hook it to my veins, and I’ll go see it in theaters. Heck, I love the Avatar films... how many working journalists would admit that?
So yeah, I help power all those massive box office numbers for franchises at the movies. And guess what? Every time I look at the data, I feel vindicated in that assumption, as the top film charts remain dominated by sequels, franchise reboots or films based on popular IP. (Though where that last category can come from is also changing over time.)
VI. The ‘K-Shaped’ Economy
The “K-Shaped” economy was such a hyped notion in 2025 that it had the hallmarks of a good debunking topic for me… but the data actually supported it!
That’s right, we live in a bifurcating economy, where the rich can spend more than everyone else, and that’s defining strategy in the 2020s. In particular, Disney seems to have embraced the rich over the rest. This also explains, though, why “free” is such a valuable proposition, a topic I explored with both Tubi and FAST channels.
Honorable Mentions
Before I go, here are some other articles I enjoyed writing — and that sparked a lot of conversation!
What I Got Wrong
There are a couple of topics, of course, that I wish I had given more attention to or where I called it wrong.
I wish I had written more on piracy. This is still one of the biggest issues hurting Hollywood studios, streamer and workers, and I haven’t written about it enough. (Neither have other industry publications, of course.)
One of my other early pieces was a fairly deep data dive arguing the “Streaming Wars are getting more competitive,” and indeed they were… at first. One of the remarkable facts of the Streaming Wars is that basically the traditional studios struggled to gain ground on Netflix over the last few years, something I thought at least a couple could do.
Speaking of Netflix, did I get it wrong? On the one hand, I thought the stock price was overvalued, and it plummeted in 2022, proving me right. On the other hand, the stock price went right back up, lapping Disney, Comcast, Paramount and others. The streamer’s attempt to buy Warner Bros. studio and streaming assets sent the stock down again, but when it lost the bidding war to Paramount, up it went.
Looking back through these pieces, I’m reminded how much the industry has changed since that first Irishman experiment — and how many of the same debates are still raging today.
Hollywood still loves a hype cycle. Investors still chase the next big thing. And someone still needs to look at the data and ask whether the story everyone is telling actually holds up.
I plan to keep doing that.
You’ll see some of those deep dives on my own newsletter going forward — and, occasionally, right here at The Ankler.
So this isn’t quite goodbye. I’ll be seeing you soon.
I saw the The Irishman at The Belasco back in 2019, impossible experience to forget.