12 C-Suite Execs on the ‘Existential’ Fallout of a Warners Deal and the ‘Least Bad’ Outcome
Private whispers about why the acquisition could be as destabilizing for the buyer as it is for the rest of Hollywood
I cover TV from L.A. I wrote about the 10 showrunners who define TV now, got the inside dope on Ryan Murphy’s legal drama All’s Fair and interviewed Universal Content Productions chief Beatrice Springborn. Email me at lesley.goldberg@theankler.com
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“I’ll believe it when I see it actually get approved.”
That’s a text message I received early Friday from a senior television executive after Netflix stunned Hollywood with the announcement that it had won the bidding war for Warner Bros.’ film and TV studios as well as HBO and HBO Max.
To be sure, the shock waves continue to roll through the town’s executive suites as the situation is far from settled now that Paramount and the Ellisons have made a hostile takeover attempt for all of Warner Bros. Discovery.
As any deal will have to navigate the politics of the White House and regulatory approvals, the next 12 to 18 months will be anything but business as usual for an industry already battered and bruised by the pandemic and the dual strikes, with another round of guild negotiations already on the horizon for 2026.
“It’s not good for the creative community. This is existential. There’s no way [a combined Netflix and Warners] can maintain their same level of output — and there’s no need for it,” one very high-ranking exec told me late Friday, before Paramount re-entered the fray.
Netflix bid $82.7 billion ($72 billion in equity) for the most-prized parts of Warners including its 100-year library of IP. Paramount’s hostile offer, meanwhile, is for the whole shebang — including such depressed linear networks as CNN and TBS — and is valued at $108.4 billion. Paramount’s financial backers include funding from the Ellisons, but with the majority backing from Jared Kushner’s Saudi-backed Affinity Partners and investment money from the sovereign wealth funds of Saudi Arabia, UAE and Qatar.
“Whoever buys it, it’s bad. What’s the least bad? I don’t know,” says a third industry executive. “Whether it stays HBO Max or becomes a tile on Paramount+ or Netflix, it’s still a buyer going out of the business.”
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At the same time, other executives I spoke with contend that Netflix landing the big Warners fish would be as disruptive for the dominant streamer as it would be for the rest of the industry given the multiple new businesses the company would be immersed in should a deal come to fruition. Warners has business across the television landscape, making shows for Disney, Apple, Amazon and multiple broadcast platforms. There’s also the question of whether the streaming giant will, as co-CEO Ted Sarandos has already pledged, continue to sell original Warner Bros. TV Group programming to third-party buyers (aka their former competitors) as well as continue to buy new and licensed programming from outsiders like Disney and Paramount.
Weeks before Netlfix was in the mix, I wrote about what a WBD-Paramount rollup might look like, the questions it raises for the industry and the power it might have to challenge Netflix. For today, I spoke with at least a dozen C-suiters from across the television landscape — all of whom declined to go on record out of concern for future business dealings.
From those conversations, you’ll learn about:
Disrupter disrupted: How entering new arenas like syndication and profit participation could challenge Netflix more than leadership realizes
Spending decline: Despite assurances from both bidders that Warner Bros. quality and teams will be protected, “These guys are not spending $82 billion-$108 billion to keep things business as usual”
Precious property: What Warner Bros. IP would mean for Netflix vs. how it would boost Paramount — and ripple effects for Hollywood either way
Dealmakers: One group in Hollywood who’d win a lot of new work if Netflix prevails
Seeds of doubt: Why some insiders believe Netflix hasn’t figured out how it would manage some of the Warner Bros. businesses it’s trying to win
Marketing bottleneck: How Netflix output plus WBTV Group output could be too much of a good thing
Buyer’s market: Will a supersized Netflix still buy from other studios — and will it still pay the same cost-plus premiums?