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1. Netflix’s Four ‘What If’ Scenarios
I caused a little stir earlier this week with some tweets about The Power of the Dog and my personal hope/professional belief that it will not win Best Picture at the Oscars, but I’m not here to discuss the merits of that film. As a reporter, I’ll give The Power of the Dog its due as the clear frontrunner, having secured 12 noms from the Academy, with the Oscar for Best Director all but assured for Jane Campion. But let’s focus on the only award that in the end really matters: Best Picture. That is the award. That’s why the studios and streamers spend an estimated $200m a year on FYC ads in the trades (and at The Ankler etc…). The Oscars are what makes so many industries go ’round, from entertainment media to fashion to the entire awards industrial complex. After three years of thwarted Best Picture campaigns and untold hundreds of million spent in pursuit, Netflix stands on the cusp of finally taking the award — or suffering its most stinging defeat yet. (As Tatiana Siegel said on the Ankler Hot Seat podcast, the company has a way of ‘“snatching defeat from the jaws of victory”). I was interested in how this plays out either way, win or lose, and what impact that has on their appetite to fund future mega-campaigns.
So let’s explore the four scenarios of what could happen if Netflix wins or doesn’t win Best Picture:
1. Netflix wins! Emboldened by the feeling of victory, Ted Sarandos says he wants to do it again, and he goes all Tom Brady and wants to repeat as reigning champ to confirm Oscar is Netflix’s domain, not a fluke. Netflix then continues to spend in the prestige sector, allowing indie producers to breathe easy for another year, knowing there will be a streaming home for their arthouse titles.
2. Netflix wins! BUT…Ted experiences such a feeling of accomplishment that he’s able to lean back and say ‘we did it! Nothing will ever top this moment,’ and then Netflix stops chasing Best Picture as a stamp of validation like it’s done the last few years. Going forward, there will be fewer films like Roma, The Power of the Dog and The Lost Daughter, and more awards contenders will look like Don’t Look Up. With perhaps smaller campaigns backing them.
3. Netflix loses! And yet…Ted refuses to give up. He comes to grips with the fact that The Power of the Dog was slow and extremely divisive, and he acknowledges that these things are all about timing, and it just wasn’t the right time to give it to that kind of downbeat movie. That will be the message if voters go with something a little more upbeat, like CODA, King Richard, Belfast or West Side Story.
4. Netflix loses! BUT…Ted decides to give up. The stock is already down, so why would Netflix continue to throw money away on art films that few people watch and worse — to Ted, anyway — don’t even win awards?!? And with Oscar’s ratings in a nose dive, who needs ‘em anyway? Let’s do fewer movies, as Scott Stuber already said, and give audiences more Red Notice all year long instead. Bring on the Squid Games!
Now, let’s look at Netflix’s current awards slate:
1. The Power of the Dog
2. Don’t Look Up
3. Tick, Tick… Boom!
4. The Lost Daughter
5. The Hand of God (international)
6. The Mitchells vs. the Machines (animated)
7. Passing
8. The Harder They Fall
9. Bruised
10. Prayers for the Stolen (international)
11. The Summit of the Gods (animated)
I would bet Netflix spent somewhere at least between $500 million and $1 billion producing and/or acquiring those 11 movies, then marketing them and paying for fancy awards campaigns.
This has been a sneak preview of today’s edition of The Ankler, the industry’s secret newsletter. To read the rest of this issue, subscribe today for just $17 a month and don’t miss out on who’s in the hot seat next!
Also on The Ankler:
Don’t miss The Ankler’s excerpt of Red Carpet, reporter Erich Schwartzel’s look at Hollywood’s disastrous courtship of China. In this excerpt: fresh off Cutthroat Island, Renny Harlin seeks redemption helping the Middle Kingdom master Hollywood moviemaking.
Podcast: Tom Cruise and how the Mission: Impossible franchise was saved over one very awkward dinner. Christine Peters was Sumner Redstone’s girlfriend, Jon Peters’ wife and helped oust Les Moonves with her #MeToo story. Now, she’s talking — about everyone from Tom Cruise to Shari Redstone
Hollywood Transom on the latest turn in the long-running drama around the actress and the studio titans whose careers came to an end over their associations with her. Now, there’s a $300m lawsuit against Ron Meyer and NBCU by Charlotte Kirk’s ex.
Oscar nom reacts from Ankler Rushfield and producer Michael Shamberg.
Michael Wolff on Jeff Zucker and the Insatiable ‘Will to Power‘
On The Optionist:
Publishing PR legend Paul Bogaards on the future of Joan Didion’s estate.
Unbelievable stories for option: a Korean boy band that won over Howard University in 1896; a young adult romcom; and a dark thriller à la I May Destroy You.
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