Well, they did it. They really did it.
Way back in April when I suggested that this moment of disruption would give the companies license to renegotiate the window permanently, I was called a hysteric, a madman (charges I won’t deny).
Yet here we are. A big, wild move, wrapped in a catastrophic streaming launch swaddled in a flailing old economy conglomerate sprinkled with a drug-addled high on artificial numbers stock market.
A formula for entertainment glory!
Entertainment glory, in fact, has emerged from stranger backgrounds than this, so for all we know, maybe it is. Predicting how people will be entertaining themselves even five years from now is a fool’s errand, so someday we might well look back and see this as when WarnerMedia slipped the surly bonds of earth, and danced the skies on laughter-silvered wings.
But one thing we probably can predict, demurrals aside, whatever the future of entertainment looks like it probably won’t include Warner Bros as a first tier theatrical player. That seems to be how they want it, and what they’ve set in motion today all but guarantees, that’s how it will be. As one friend said today, “It’s not the death of the movies. It’s the death of Warners as a movie company.”
So let’s break this apart, shall we?
• First, a chart:
What we have here is the stock value of WarnerMedia parent company AT&T dating back to May 2014, the month it announced its plan to acquire DirecTV, the kickoff for The Telephoney’s Hollywood adventure.
In fairness, it was having a nice run in the pre-COVID bull market—who wasn’t?—but overall, not a picture of runaway media-driven success here.
However much we talk about “What really is a movie anyway?” or the future of cinema or the grappling of the streaming war, this chart—and more to the point, the dream of changing this chart—is the road map behind every major decision the American Telephone and Telegraph Corporation makes.
• What guides the people who determine the fate of this chart, ie. the stock-buying titans of Wall Street? As previously and (perhaps) exhaustively discussed in this publication, Wall St has decided it wants one thing and one thing only out of Hollywood, and if we can’t give them that than we can go sit in the corner: Give Us Another Netflix!
For the fun of comparison, here’s what Netflix’s chart looks like in the same period:
Notice any difference?
• Way back two weeks ago, after the Wonder Woman announcement I wrote:
The fact about the WW decision is that even if AT&T loses a billion dollars of would’ve been profits from this, when you’re already $150 billion in the hole as The Telephone People are, what’s another one or two here? More important though, when you’re in the business of wires, The Max is key to your core business—filling out the 5G, providing magical data. Movies are . . . this other thing they somehow got stuck with. The long line of heartfelt reassurances about The Telephonies’ commitment to theatrical has almost invariably been followed by demands that it must change. Which since time immemorial in Hollywood, has been owner-speak for “We won’t put up with one more flop!”
When people are in over their heads, they fall back on their comfort zones and for AT&T, its comfort zone is always going to be in the wires . . . .
This has been a preview of today’s special edition of The Ankler, the industry’s secret newsletter on the Warner Max bombshell. To read it all, subscribe today for just $10 a month and don’t miss out on who’s in the hot seat next!
The Ankler’s Got People Talking!!
If you are interested in advertising on the Ankler: write us at ads@theankler.com for rates and info.
Enjoy this issue? Why not click on the little heart below so it can surfaced to others in the Substack universe. Or better still – share it with the world!
