YouTube’s Worst-Case Scenario: Lurking Risks Behind a Big Year
Even in mega-success, two longtime threats remain and two new ones loom
I offer analysis for paid subscribers every other Thursday. I wrote about Disney’s worst-case scenario, 7 sleeper hits of the Streaming Wars; the 60M cable subscribers still to be won in streaming; and the audience chart every exec should obsess over.
Right now might seem like a strange time to write up a “worst-case scenario” for America’s largest streamer, YouTube
What could go wrong for YouTube? Seriously? CEO Neal Mohan has been touting the company’s successes, including a newsy podcast from Cannes Lions with Janice Min, amid the company’s rosy narrative.
I’d argue, though, that when things are going well is exactly when companies need to plan for the worst. You don’t prepare for disaster after it strikes.
So amidst the deluge of articles about YouTube’s terrific year — and 2025 really has gone well for the company that now dominates screen time on TVs as well as mobile devices — I want to step back and revisit the worst-case scenario for YouTube that I mapped out one year ago, almost to the day.
Yes, things are going well, but the history of Hollywood is rife with episodes of seemingly unstoppable giants falling (Paramount in the 1970s, CBS in the 2000s, Disney in the 2010s…). What risks could topple YouTube’s ascent?
In today’s newsletter. I will:
Revisit the two long-standing threats YouTube still hasn’t solved
Break down how Google’s antitrust losses could ripple into YouTube
Explain why the legislation Hollywood wants most could be lethal for YouTube
Weigh the upside — and danger — of AI’s growing role in YouTube’s future, and game out which scenario is more likely
Assess the real threat of TikTok and its AI-powered short-form rivals
Reveal a major Google stumble — and why YouTube may pay the price
Offer a counternarrative re: YouTube’s headline-making race with Netflix over audience, creators and more