Who's Winning: Final Oscar Predictions
After all the drama, the precursor awards, the Karla, I make my 23 picks for Sunday. See if you can beat me in our Oscar pool!
Greetings from Los Angeles, where I am having a hard time not pulling aside everyone I see and whispering, “Hey, can you believe I actually get to go to the Oscars?” I’m seemingly not the only person excited to be in that room for the first time. At a press conference with the show’s production team yesterday, Conan O’Brien cracked, “I’m only hosting so I could be invited. This is my chance to go to the Oscars.”
My job on Sunday night will be a good bit easier than Conan’s, and I’ll have a guide in The Ankler himself, Richard Rushfield. On Tuesday night he attended a dinner for all the nominees, held at the Academy Museum in lieu of the traditional nominees luncheon, which was canceled in the wake of the wildfires. Check out his column later today for the rundown of what he saw.
Today I’ve got my final Oscar predictions in every category, and you can also revisit our Ankler Pundits page to see what our friends are predicting as well. But first, a few programming notes.
My goal on Sunday, whenever Wi-Fi cooperates, is to go live on Substack a few times throughout the evening, hopefully once before and once after the ceremony. (You have to subscribe to this newsletter to get a Substack notification that a live video has started, so if you haven’t already, now is a great time to do that!)
Now is also a great time to make your picks in our Prestige Junkie Oscar Pool, where not only can you earn bragging rights over the Ankler’s staff and your fellow readers, but you also might score a prize for your efforts: The winner will receive a free year of Patron status on Letterboxd, with a yearlong Pro membership for the runner-up. (Thanks to our friends at Letterboxd for making this possible!)
Finally, I’ll be recording next week’s Prestige Junkie podcast bright and early on Monday morning to recap everything that happened at the Oscars, and for the first time ever we’ll be streaming live on YouTube. Subscribe to The Ankler on YouTube, watch me and returning guest Tyler Coates live and even submit your burning questions about this year’s show. We may experiment with more live pods in the future, so tune in and help us figure out what they might look like!
And now on to the main event — 23 Oscar predictions, only a few of them actually easy to make.
Starting Small: Live Action, Doc and Animated Shorts
Hopefully you’ve heard me and Chris Feil go in depth on all 15 shorts nominees on a recent episode of the podcast, so I can cut to the chase here. Yes, the shorts are notoriously hard to predict, even when you’ve watched all of them — trust me, I’ve lost enough Oscar pools to know it well. But there are some trends among recent winners that I think can guide us.
Live action short
All five of this year’s nominees are pretty good, which is not always a guarantee in this category, and only one is backed by a conspicuously big name — the New Delhi-set Anuja boasts Mindy Kaling as an executive producer. That might give it a Hollywood insider edge, but I’m betting on the timely gut punch of A Lien, following a family targeted by ICE during a green card hearing.
Predicted winner: A Lien
Documentary short
I was delighted to hear that Ayume, the elementary schooler at the center of Instruments of a Beating Heart, will be attending the Oscars alongside the filmmakers; the documentary following a group of Japanese first graders is insightful, charming and a great example of how powerful a short documentary can be. But Ayume and her fellow students are facing a genuine masterpiece in Incident, by avant-garde documentary veteran Bill Morrison, who assembled the body cam footage from a police shooting in Chicago into a riveting 30-minute film.
Predicted winner: Incident
Animated short
With no fewer than two films that feature full-frontal male nudity, the animated short nominees make a fascinating counterbalance to the kid-friendly efforts that dominate the feature-length category. I found it hard to pick a favorite here, but I’m counting on voters to be partial to Yuck!, the sweet and resonant French entry about a group of kids on a camping trip who learn kissing might not be so gross after all.
Predicted winner: Yuck!
Movie Magic: Cinematography, VFX, Editing and Production Design
Cinematography
The Brutalist no longer feels quite like the Oscar juggernaut it seemed to be in January — though, again, this race has been wide open, so who knows? But this may be the sole category it can safely count on winning, thanks both to Lol Crawley’s stunning work and the focus on the film’s use of old-school VistaVision film stock. A potential spoiler could be Ed Lachman, revered in his industry and still not an Oscar winner, but I suspect his film, Pablo Larrain’s Maria, is too small to break through.
Predicted winner: The Brutalist
Visual Effects
You might assume that best picture nominees Dune: Part Two and Wicked have an edge here, and given the emphasis in the Wicked campaign on the film’s practical makeup effects and sets, the sci-fi spectacle of Dune might be a bit stronger. Still, I can’t help but wonder about Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes, which could be the first-ever film in the Apes franchise to win for the genuinely groundbreaking motion-capture work that goes into its apes. The filmmakers even released a “raw cut” on the film’s Blu-ray demonstrating just how effectively the technology translates the performances by the live actors on set. Will that be enough to overcome the name recognition of Dune, which won this category for part one in 2022? I’m erring on the side of optimism.
Predicted winner: Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes
Film Editing
This one truly might come down to the formatting of the Oscar ballots. Editors’ names aren’t listed, just the films, which means some voters might not realize that Sean Baker edited his own film, Anora. I am counting on enough of them knowing it, and that Anora is popular enough, for it to win here — but if Conclave’s Nick Emerson takes this honor instead, that might be an early sign that the papal drama really has surged in the best picture race.
Predicted winner: Anora
Production Design
There was no single more impactful moment of production design this year than the reveal of the custom-built library in The Brutalist, which Judy Becker told me she had to fully reimagine after the production changed locations. I am perhaps optimistically predicting a victory for Becker, even though Wicked’s emphasis on practical sets — and the sheer scope of what they were able to do — make formidable competition.
Predicted winner: The Brutalist
Look Sharp: Costume Design, Makeup and Hairstyling
Costume Design
A blessedly easy one: If Broadway veteran Paul Tazewell doesn’t win for Glinda’s pink bubble dress, Elphaba’s chic black gowns, or literally hundreds of dazzling costumes on the background actors, something truly bad is happening in Oz.
Predicted winner: Wicked
Makeup and Hairstyling
It’s very possible Wicked takes this one as well — the most famous makeup of the year was certainly Cynthia Erivo’s green skin. But it’s hard to remember a more impressive use of prosthetic makeup in recent years than in The Substance, which doesn’t just transform Demi Moore but also changes constantly, from subtle human transformation to the gory monster we’re left with at the end. Given how well The Substance did with Oscar nominations overall, I feel somewhat confident it won’t be overlooked.
Predicted winner: The Substance
Listen Up: Song, Score and Sound
Original Song
“El Mal” has emerged as the Emilia Pérez song to get behind, and as a centerpiece song for near-certain best supporting actress winner Zoe Saldaña it’s a smart choice. But I can’t help wondering if the collapse of Emilia Pérez’s best picture campaign might be enough to ding its songs too … and if this might finally be the year for 16-time nominee Diane Warren. If her song weren’t also from a Netflix film, The Six Triple Eight, I might actually be brave enough to predict it. Even so, if she wins, I’ll be the first one leaping out of my seat in the Dolby Theatre.
Predicted winner: “El Mal”
Original Score
Composer Kris Bowers may not be able to single-handedly get more attention for the sound design work in animated films, but I do think he’ll win his second Oscar for The Wild Robot, and his first for his work as a composer. His toughest competition is The Brutalist’s Daniel Blumberg, whose four-note overture perfectly captures the film’s soaring, epic spirit — and who brings percussive tension to the parts of the film that are decidedly less old-fashioned. If the Academy turns out to love The Brutalist as much as I do, it’s possible Blumberg could win, but having rewatched The Wild Robot recently with my son and been moved all over again by Bowers’ work, I’m leaning the robot’s way.
Predicted winner: The Wild Robot
Sound
With three musicals nominated alongside the sci-fi inventions of Dune: Part Two and The Wild Robot, it’s a very apples-and-oranges kind of competition here, and very hard to predict. The first Dune won this category in 2021, so could the sequel repeat? Wicked is the most popular of the three musicals, so could it win out? I was personally blown away by the inventive soundscape of The Wild Robot, and Bowers has been banging the drum for the sound team to get more attention. But no animated film has won a sound award before, and I’m not sure this is the year for that to change.
Predicted winner: Dune: Part Two
Feature Focus: Documentary, International and Animated
Documentary Feature
Despite still having no U.S. distributor, the Palestine-set No Other Land has captured the lion’s share of critics prizes all season, and seems to have more name recognition than all other contenders combined. But the occupation of Palestine is a thorny subject at the Oscars — look no further than the uproar over Jonathan Glazer’s speech just last year. It’s possible Academy voters will be inclined to avoid it in favor of one of the other incredibly timely nominees, like the Ukraine-set Porcelain War or Sugarcane, about brutal Native American residential schools. I’m still sticking with No Other Land but will prepare for yet another round of debate about Hollywood’s relationship with Israel if it doesn’t win.
Predicted winner: No Other Land
International Feature
This category will be where the rubber truly hits the road in assessing how much the Karla Sofía Gascón scandal derailed the campaign for Emilia Pérez, which had seemed like a runaway favorite in this category. But its fall in stature has come at the same time as the rise of Brazil’s I’m Still Here, which scored that surprise best picture nomination and has been viewed by far more Academy members in the weeks since. (Sony Pictures Classics, the master of the late-season release strategy, seems to have done it again) To see I’m Still Here is to be bowled over, particularly for American viewers going through what star Fernanda Torres described to me as a “dystopic time.” The film by Walter Salles is undeniably less polarizing than Emilia Pérez — but has it surged in time? I’m going to predict that it has.
Predicted winner: I’m Still Here
Animated Feature
Snapping up critics prizes in December and early January, as well as a very visible Golden Globe win, the scrappy Latvian indie Flow was looking like David to the Hollywood Goliaths of The Wild Robot and Inside Out 2. But the industry has swung back in favor of The Wild Robot in recent weeks, winning the Producers Guild award for animation as well as nine Annie Awards. I suspect that will put it over the top at the Oscars too, marking the first Oscar win for DreamWorks Animation since the very first, for Shrek in 2002.
Predicted winner: The Wild Robot
Word to the Wise: Screenplays
Adapted Screenplay
Even before its SAG Awards ensemble win last weekend, we probably should have realized how popular Conclave was by how easily writer Peter Straughan has waltzed through this season, picking up nearly every adapted screenplay trophy available to him, including most recently the USC Scripter Awards. (Nickel Boys did win the WGA prize, where Conclave was not eligible.) Straughan, who told me he “never in a million years” thought Conclave would become one of the biggest hits of his career, is hopefully prepared to take the stage once again on Sunday.
Predicted winner: Conclave
Original Screenplay
Two Cannes winners, one breakout Sundance hit, a monumental labor of love — and September 5, which with all due respect is just happy to be here. The competition in this category may be even more intense than in best director or best picture, and I write this paragraph still not knowing whether to lean toward Sean Baker for Anora or Jesse Eisenberg for A Real Pain, or how much weight to put on potential wild cards in The Brutalist or The Substance (which, after all, did win that screenplay award at Cannes). I think I favor Eisenberg just for the sake of variety — more movies should win more Oscars! — but Baker may have the edge. I don’t know! This one is so hard!
Predicted winner: A Real Pain
Star Turns: The Actors and Actresses
Supporting Actor
Let’s get this over quickly: Kieran Culkin has won every single precursor award that matters and will win again on Sunday. There was a time when Edward Norton or Guy Pearce, two veteran actors who have never quite gotten what they deserved from awards shows, might have made a run in this category, but Culkin has been locked in place more or less since A Real Pain premiered at Sundance over a year ago. Some years that’s just how this category goes.
Predicted winner: Kieran Culkin, A Real Pain
Supporting Actress
Hopefully Zoe Saldaña can start teaching master classes in how to navigate a stormy awards campaign, because she has been completely unflappable through all the Emilia Pérez turbulence, and an effective ambassador for the film despite it all. Her win comes after more than two decades of starring in some of the most profitable films of all time, and for a performance that’s genuinely revelatory — it’s hard to get a better combination than that.
Predicted winner: Zoe Saldaña, Emilia Pérez
Actor
When Vulture’s Joe Reid and I discussed our predictions on the podcast earlier this week, he described the best actor race as a coin flip that kept coming up in favor of Adrien Brody until, at Sunday’s SAG Awards, it finally went for Timothée Chalamet. That’s truly how it seems now too, and given what I anticipate will be close vote totals in a lot of categories, making a prediction one way or another feels like a mug’s game. It won’t really come down to narrative or campaigns or historical precedent, just how a handful of Oscar voters felt when they sat down with their ballots. I’ll stick with Brody just for the sake of it but will be on the edge of my seat when this one is announced.
Predicted winner: Adrien Brody
Actress
A lot of my fellow pundits think this could also be a coin flip between Demi Moore, the queen of the comeback narrative this season, and Mikey Madison, the titular, breakout star of a huge Oscar hit. But I keep coming back to the very recent precedent set by Brendan Fraser, the ’90s icon who rode a comeback narrative through the 2022-2023 Oscar season, and Austin Butler, whose breakthrough performance in Elvis that season made him a star overnight. Adding to that, Moore’s film The Substance is far more popular with the Academy than Fraser’s The Whale was, and she was a far bigger star in her heyday. Ingenues like Madison have won many best actress Oscars over the years, but the trend in the past decade has been much more toward veterans. I’m prepared to be wrong, but I’m confidently sticking with Moore.
Predicted winner: Demi Moore
The Biggies: Director and Picture
Director
The Brutalist’s Brady Corbet and Anora’s Sean Baker, the two presumed frontrunners here, occupy pretty similar lanes in terms of Oscar narrative. Though nearly 20 years apart in age, they’ve both broken out as fiercely independent filmmakers within the last decade, and have spent their time on the Oscar campaign trail talking about the broader issues that face their community — final cut, theatrical release, living wages, the works. They both fit the mold of recent best director winners like Chloé Zhao and the Daniels, Scheinert and Kwan, breakthrough indie voices who tell Hollywood that it’s not impossible to make this kind of art — just really, really hard.
I’m inclined to give the edge to Baker simply because he’s made more films and has come closer to the awards conversation before with The Florida Project and Red Rocket. But if there ever was a year when it makes sense for best picture and best director to go to different films, this would be the one, so it’s very possible Corbet gets it instead.
Predicted winner: Sean Baker
Picture
In the end, I’m sticking with the theory that it was Anora all along — that its wins with the Directors Guild and Producers Guild in early February revealed, despite the perceived ups and downs of this season, that Anora has been the biggest consensus favorite all season. It will be close, though, and given the preferential ballot the Academy uses to vote for best picture, an even more down-the-middle hit like Conclave could be a real threat.
That’s certainly been a prevailing theory since Conclave won the best ensemble at the SAG Awards, which doesn’t use a preferential ballot, suggesting Conclave might not even need those second- and third-place votes to win. (For a brief and excellent explainer on how ranked choice voting works, go here.) But I still think Anora could have plenty of its own second- and third-place votes, and with the imprimatur of that Palme d’Or win behind it, is enough of a highbrow choice and a crowd-pleaser to make it through.
Predicted winner: Anora
Technically, The Wild Robot would be the *third* DreamWorks film to win Best Animated Feature, following Shrek and Wallace & Gromit: Curse of the Were-Rabbit. Admittedly, Wallace & Gromit was produced by Aardman, not by DreamWorks' in-house CGI team, but still.
I hope you’re wrong on all of these, ha! My ballot is quite different.