These 10 Movies Will Be Best Picture Nominees (I Think)
With major festivals in my rearview, I predict the Oscar race
If you’ve been reading this column or listening to the Prestige Junkie podcast long enough, you know I firmly believe it’s never too early to predict the Oscars, so long as you don’t take yourself too seriously. Way back in March, I irresponsibly predicted that Sony Pictures Classics’ Nuremberg, the historical drama that premiered in Toronto to a somewhat quiet response, would win best picture. But that’s fine! Being right all the time is a boring way to live!
At this point in mid-September, however, we actually do know a lot about the shape of the race, particularly the films that have genuine enthusiasm behind them following fall festival debuts — including Focus Features’ Toronto International Film Festival audience award winner, Hamnet. Yes, there are still several major contenders yet to premiere (A24’s Marty Supreme, Universal’s Wicked: For Good and 20th Century Studios’ Avatar: Fire & Ash), and some movies that had rocky launches (Amazon MGM’s After the Hunt, for instance) may still have a chance to pop. However, predicting a best picture lineup right now is — if not entirely responsible — not just wild guessing either.
And with our Ankler Pundits page relaunching very soon (more on that below), I may as well start explaining some of my choices. So today, I bring you my predictions for the 10 best picture nominees, in order of likelihood and with the case for and against their chances. Did I get it all right? Highly unlikely. But it’s a pretty good window into where things stand at this point, and what’s poised to shift in the coming months.
If you want more big picture Oscar season talk, paid Prestige Junkie After Party subscribers can now watch a brand-new bonus podcast episode, with me, Christopher Rosen and Chris Feil (This Had Oscar Buzz) revisiting our fall festival drafts to see who’s leading the charge midway through festival season. (Just between us: It’s me! I’m winning! Sign up now to listen.)
1. Sinners (dir. Ryan Coogler)
The case for it: It’s an awfully quiet time for Ryan Coogler’s vampire epic, which has ceded the crown of the year’s most-talked-about movie to KPop Demon Hunters and sat out the fall festival hubbub — save for Coogler’s under-the-radar trip to Telluride. But every time a movie premiered at a fall festival and disappointed, or even failed to blow people away, Sinners looked better and better. Nearly everyone I talked to in Toronto still sees the Warner Bros. blockbuster, about twin brothers opening a juke joint in Louisiana and unexpectedly dealing with undead bloodsuckers, as the film to beat — even though some strategists working on Sinners have told me they don’t consider themselves the frontrunner. To that I say, with respect: Too bad. The full awards push for this movie has yet to begin, and with megastar Michael B. Jordan leading the charge, I think it still has nearly everything going in its favor.
The case against it: Even setting aside the debunked myths about how films with Black stars perform overseas, I think there are still valid questions about how this very American story might translate to the broader, more international Academy. Even more saliently, its biggest competition may well be released by the same studio — we’ll get to that in a moment.
2. Hamnet (dir. Chloé Zhao)
The case for it: A colleague in Toronto tried to argue that we’re already down to a two-movie Oscar race between Sinners and Hamnet, and while I don’t think it’s that simple, Chloé Zhao’s drama was undeniably the biggest winner from the entire fall festival circuit. Even before it won TIFF’s coveted People’s Choice Award — an audience-voted honor that has been a reliable best picture bellwether in the last two decades — Hamnet (due out in theaters this Thanksgiving) had translated its Telluride buzz into a full-scale takeover in Toronto; when you asked people what their favorite movie of the fest was, they seemed to be almost sheepish in admitting it was Hamnet, just like everyone else. It is absolutely the film to beat in best actress, courtesy of Jessie Buckley’s riveting, all-consuming lead performance. To me, the sky’s the limit in just how many other categories it could dominate.
The case against it: A domestic drama about William Shakespeare, his wife and a family tragedy, Hamnet is a smaller story than a lot of the other titles on this list. And though Zhao has already directed an intimate best picture winner with Nomadland, that 2020 race was unusual, to say the least. There’s also the peril of peaking too early, with all this early September attention bound to fade at some point.
3. Sentimental Value (dir. Joachim Trier)
The case for it: Speaking of family dramas, Joachim Trier’s Cannes runner-up has just as much heartbreak woven into it as Hamnet, and adds in generational trauma, sly commentary on filmmaking and storytelling, and an exceptional Oslo house in which it all takes place. I kept hearing raves about this one in Toronto, too. With plans to visit a slew of the regional festivals in October before its theatrical bow on Nov. 7, I think this sad and ultimately warm-hearted film will continue winning over audiences. (Sentimental Value was picked as runner-up in the newly formed TIFF audience award for international films, too.) With the supporting actor race still lacking a slam-dunk frontrunner, Stellan Skarsgård’s campaign is looking stronger and stronger.
The case against it: Neon has another Cannes hit to juggle this season (more on that one below), and what I wrote above about Hamnet’s relatively small scale applies here, too.
4. One Battle After Another (dir. Paul Thomas Anderson)
The case for it: On the first Friday of TIFF, I texted two critic friends with a question about an entirely different movie, and they responded instead with overflowing praise for Paul Thomas Anderson’s latest. (Direct quote: “More like one great scene after another.”) Rumors from the summer that One Battle After Another — which, inspired by Thomas Pynchon’s Vineland, focuses on a former radical (Leonardo DiCaprio) who searches for his daughter after a racist government official kidnaps her — might be too action-heavy and fun for serious Oscar attention, or simply too obtuse, have now morphed into an overwhelming cascade of anticipation. (One Battle is out in theaters next week.) I haven’t seen the movie yet, and yes, I am mad about it. Still, for now, I’m buying into the hype and taking this very seriously as potentially Anderson’s first-ever Oscar win.
The case against it: Hopefully, someone at Warner Bros. knows how they can campaign two genre-influenced, muscular dramas from prominent American filmmakers, because I sure don’t know how they’ll do it. It would be an incredible cap to the studio’s wild year in the press, but a real challenge for a studio that presumably wants both Sinners director Coogler and Anderson to feel celebrated. There’s also the fact that Anderson has been nominated for 11 Oscars — yes, 11! — and has never won, and breaking that kind of streak can sometimes be a lot harder than it looks.
5. Wicked: For Good (dir. Jon M. Chu)
The case for it: The first Wicked movie was an Oscar juggernaut, nominated for 10 awards and winning two (for production design and costume design). The second half, filmed simultaneously with the first, shows all signs of being just as robust and gorgeously staged, and has the added benefit of two original songs and a lot of shared story DNA with The Wizard of Oz, which, as you might have heard this summer, remains very popular. There was a sense with Wicked’s awards run last year that voters might be waiting for the grand finale to reward the project as a whole. The time, if that theory holds, has come.
The case against it: Even if those original songs are home runs, it may be hard for them to overcome KPop Demon Hunters and “Golden.” And there could be a similar kind of overshadowing overall from Sinners, whereas the first Wicked was the only true cultural phenomenon blockbuster in last year’s race (with all due respect to Dune: Part Two, I swear). There’s also the fact that even Wicked devotees often admit that the second act is the weakest — can the movie version spruce up the story enough to overcome that? Or will the sequel — and its global press tour and awards campaign — feel “been there, done that” by the time Wicked: For Good releases on Nov. 21?
6. Jay Kelly (dir. Noah Baumbach)
The case for it: After some bruising Venice reviews, Noah Baumbach’s latest rebounded in Telluride, with the same buzz for George Clooney and Adam Sandler’s performances — as well as Billy Crudup’s one-scene wonder appearance — that I had been hearing over the summer. I wish it had hopped over to Toronto to keep the energy going. Still, Netflix is probably playing the long game more wisely, with a New York Film Festival slot ahead and plenty of time to find its audience ready for an inside baseball tale of movie stardom.
The case against it: The Venice reviews made it clear this one won’t be for everyone, and with an intensely competitive best actor race, even Clooney will have to fight for a nomination for his first starring role in ages. After Baumbach’s even more well-received Marriage Story brought in just one win, for Laura Dern, it’s unclear if the Academy will be even more inclined to embrace him this time around — especially for a project about a selfish movie star (Clooney) and the personal relationships he fractured en route to fame and fortune. Netflix is also juggling multiple contenders this year (more on that shortly) and could find it challenging to get them all Academy attention.
7. It Was Just an Accident (dir. Jafar Panahi)
The case for it: Jafar Panahi’s latest, this year’s Cannes Palme d’Or winner, would be a sensation even if the director — arrested twice by the Iranian government in the past 15 years — weren’t newly free to travel the world in support of his film. With his signature dark glasses and defiant, almost nonchalant attitude toward the repression he has faced from his government, Panahi is an actual celebrity in the film world. The warm reception for the surprisingly funny It Was Just an Accident — about a group of citizens who plot revenge against a man they believe was their torturer while jailed — suggests his embrace by the Academy is coming next.
The case against it: The movie is surprisingly funny and entertaining, sure, but it still requires knowledge of the Iranian regime and Panahi’s own experience, which is a higher bar to entry than, say, Sentimental Value, another Neon title vying for Oscar attention. And though international features have become an expected element of the best picture lineup in recent years, an Iranian film has yet to break through.
8. Marty Supreme (dir. Josh Safdie)
The case for it: Nobody has seen this movie as far as I know, so we’re going on pure gut instinct here — plus the power of that excellent trailer above and Timothée Chalamet’s recent track record as the king of Christmas releases (following Wonka and A Complete Unknown). Though A24 still has If I Had Legs I’d Kick You and The Smashing Machine in the race, this solo effort from Josh Safdie — a period piece about a young man with dreams of becoming the world’s best table-tennis player — is increasingly looking like the studio’s best shot in the best picture field.
The cast against it: While there have been whispers suggesting Marty Supreme is one of the A24’s best movies ever — lofty praise considering the studio released best picture winners Moonlight and Everything Everywhere All at Once — maybe it’s no good!
9. Avatar: Fire and Ash (dir. James Cameron)
The case for it: Both of the previous Avatar movies have been best picture nominees, and though The Way of Water was less of an Oscar sensation (four nominations and no wins) than the original Avatar (nine nominations and three wins), the holiday season release date gives everyone Avatar fever just in time for votes to be cast. The lesson we have been learning over and over for nearly 40 years: do not underestimate James Cameron.
The case against it: The Way of Water’s lower nomination haul could mean this franchise is just on a downward trajectory with Oscars, and no amount of box office could change that. With Wicked and Sinners as fresher blockbusters in the mix, voters might feel inclined to give this spot to a smaller, scrappier contender.
10. Train Dreams (dir. Clint Bentley)
The case for it: Maybe this is wishful thinking on behalf of a movie I love, but as my friend Joe Reid wrote in Vulture recently, now is the time for expanding the Oscar field and not ruling things out. And with Netflix’s bigger fall releases like Jay Kelly, Frankenstein and Ballad of a Small Player facing more muted responses at fall festivals, this Sundance pickup from director Clint Bentley — a beautifully filmed and tender story about life out West in the early 20th century — starts to look more and more assured. Yes, I’m biased. I still think it could happen.
The case against it: It’s a small movie with a lot of competition from its own distributor, which is the same challenge Bentley and Greg Kwedar’s Sing Sing from A24 faced last year. It will need a lot of sustained attention to crack this list, and it’s unclear yet if it will get it.
Lastly!
My not-ranked but strongly considered (in alphabetical order): Bugonia (Yorgos Lanthimos), Frankenstein (Guillermo del Toro), A House of Dynamite (Kathryn Bigelow), Is This Thing On? (Bradley Cooper), No Other Choice (Park Chan-wook), The Smashing Machine (Benny Safdie), Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere (Scott Cooper).
And remember to join us over at Prestige Junkie After Party for more discussion on this year’s best picture race and to get early access to the Ankler Pundits’ predictions — plus to share your own thoughts on the race! Subscribe now for just $5 a month and I’ll make sure you’re on the list.