This could well be the craziest year Hollywood’s ever seen! Who’s going to come out on top? Who’s going to fall on their faces? Will the assistants rise up? Justice for the writers? What do you see coming in the year ahead.
Let's start the ball rolling? Disney is going to have a decidedly less giant-baked in world swallowing blockbuster of a year than in the past. In December will we be saying, the Disney honeymoon is over, or that they'll taken a year to restock the pond for a new era of global conquest?
Disney blew its wad this year. Everything will seem like an anti-climax now. You cannot go THAT big and then just tinker. And Disney Plus is already getting stale.
DIsney+ is severely lacking in Baby Yoda content right now but they seem to be rushing that Marvel stuff out as fast as possible. When everyone is in rapture over the retro stylings of Wanda Vision no one will remember the hiatus.
As long as we're at it, assistants won't get paid less or more than minimum wage. If you think someone's gonna pay them more, you don't understand the law of supply and demand.
I have a theory about the only thing that will get the Academy's attention on #OscarsSoWhite or #OscarsSoMale. That is if women boycott the Oscar ceremony en masse. A half-full auditorium might do it. What do you think that will get them to change?
That is a notion. Maybe if they set up an alternative Oscars. You can ask people to publicly grandstand..but to just ...not be in public. Thats a big ask!
This is the whole ball o wax. Basically they get money for 1/6th what everyone else does...They can keep priming the pumps. When the day comes that wall st demands the same returns as everyone else though, that spigot goes off, and it could happen on a dime.
I predict that the agencies will figure out how to pay their assistants better before they figure out the ATA thing. Sadly, I don't think the assistants will be treated much better, but at least they'll be paid close to a living wage.
I think you're right, With CAA raising the hourly, they've all got to do something. My question: $18 an hour is better than $15..But is it still more than starvation wages considering the price of Los Angeles.
Sale of MGM. Sale of Lions Gate for spare parts. Streaming wars start to materially damage the balance sheets of the Hollywood players (as opposed to Silicon Valley players). Writers Guild wins; Endeavor Content folds.
Will this be the year that someone finally tells Netflix their algorithm sucks and no one believes that having more data is helping them since the vast majority of their content is below mediocre?
It certainly wont be the press that tells them that. But this may be the year some of their users tell them that by voting with their feet and canceling for other services.
Disney fails to integrate 20th Century or whatever they care to call it into a cohesive theatrical strategy. By end of the year it will be announced that 20th Main Unit is scaling down and only doing direct-to-streaming movies. "Avatar" content will release under Walt Disney banner. Searchlight will eventually be sold. History repeats from Touchstone-Miramax times. Analysts will start to more aggressively question what Disney paid for in the 21CF deal and Iger definitely won't get renewed beyond 2021.
I think all of the streaming launches are going to look unimpressive initially, but I'm bullish on HBO Max. They may not have a smart strategic plan for what the service IS, but they've figured out that the major draw is lots of content, and they're planning for higher quality than Netflix. I think the battle will end up being over content people actively want to watch vs. content they'll watch if they're bored.
I think assistant rates will rise, but with that cost it might be mean less assistants and more responsibilities on each one and maybe it means less assistants being promoted to coordinators or junior managers.
One thing that really strikes me as a difference from when I was young here, and I think wages have a lot to do with it - is the huge percent of second generation showbiz people ...in all the fields. I feel like to just come to LA with no means of support other than your pay, and get a job in showbiz, support yourself on salary at the bottom rungs, and rise up the ranks...Even on 18 an hour, that seems an accomplishment so heroic it's basically a unicorn.
I hope that's not the case. I'm sure I'm not the only assistant who's filed monthly expense reports equalling half my salary, or seen sums of money equal to or greater than my salary given as a "thank you gift" to talent for doing something low-effort like giving feedback on a project they've already been paid hundreds of thousands of dollars for, or heard the phrase "rounding error" applied to sums of money that are multiples of my salary. The money to pay assistants decently exists, the people with the money are just choosing to spend it on people who already have plenty of money, not the people who actually need that money to live.
Let's start the ball rolling? Disney is going to have a decidedly less giant-baked in world swallowing blockbuster of a year than in the past. In December will we be saying, the Disney honeymoon is over, or that they'll taken a year to restock the pond for a new era of global conquest?
Disney blew its wad this year. Everything will seem like an anti-climax now. You cannot go THAT big and then just tinker. And Disney Plus is already getting stale.
I agree Disney Plus needs to step it up now. The Mandolorian debut feels like a century ago already. Whats next?
DIsney+ is severely lacking in Baby Yoda content right now but they seem to be rushing that Marvel stuff out as fast as possible. When everyone is in rapture over the retro stylings of Wanda Vision no one will remember the hiatus.
As long as we're at it, assistants won't get paid less or more than minimum wage. If you think someone's gonna pay them more, you don't understand the law of supply and demand.
They are now forced, I think to do the barest minimimum to look like they are doing something.
I have a theory about the only thing that will get the Academy's attention on #OscarsSoWhite or #OscarsSoMale. That is if women boycott the Oscar ceremony en masse. A half-full auditorium might do it. What do you think that will get them to change?
That is a notion. Maybe if they set up an alternative Oscars. You can ask people to publicly grandstand..but to just ...not be in public. Thats a big ask!
Spencer Baumgarten janitorial services gets a license for life from ICM.
Netflix P/E ratio is 109. By way of comparison, Disney is in the 23. Apple is 26. That seems more than a little out of whack. Thoughts?
This is the whole ball o wax. Basically they get money for 1/6th what everyone else does...They can keep priming the pumps. When the day comes that wall st demands the same returns as everyone else though, that spigot goes off, and it could happen on a dime.
Sorry. You got me going on this and it's more interesting than what I'm supposed to be working on. My apologies.
Keep em coming!
I predict that the agencies will figure out how to pay their assistants better before they figure out the ATA thing. Sadly, I don't think the assistants will be treated much better, but at least they'll be paid close to a living wage.
I think you're right, With CAA raising the hourly, they've all got to do something. My question: $18 an hour is better than $15..But is it still more than starvation wages considering the price of Los Angeles.
Sale of MGM. Sale of Lions Gate for spare parts. Streaming wars start to materially damage the balance sheets of the Hollywood players (as opposed to Silicon Valley players). Writers Guild wins; Endeavor Content folds.
Will this be the year that someone finally tells Netflix their algorithm sucks and no one believes that having more data is helping them since the vast majority of their content is below mediocre?
It certainly wont be the press that tells them that. But this may be the year some of their users tell them that by voting with their feet and canceling for other services.
Hopefully I’m going to find the right leave-in conditioner for my dry ends
Don't dream too big
The new Ghostbusters will be a social media shitshow that may or may not affect the general populations view.
Disney fails to integrate 20th Century or whatever they care to call it into a cohesive theatrical strategy. By end of the year it will be announced that 20th Main Unit is scaling down and only doing direct-to-streaming movies. "Avatar" content will release under Walt Disney banner. Searchlight will eventually be sold. History repeats from Touchstone-Miramax times. Analysts will start to more aggressively question what Disney paid for in the 21CF deal and Iger definitely won't get renewed beyond 2021.
Gersh just signed with with WGA...
Ah...wow. Well we'll see if some of the Writers follow their mouths and go sign with Gersh now. ..
You think Gersh is big enough to lure CAA/WME writers?
Lionsgate finally gets bought.
About time
I mean, HBO will have a disappointing year, and thus won't be able to aid the foundering launch of the MAX service.
WOuldve been nice for them to have their next GoT ready for launch of Max, wouldnt it
I think all of the streaming launches are going to look unimpressive initially, but I'm bullish on HBO Max. They may not have a smart strategic plan for what the service IS, but they've figured out that the major draw is lots of content, and they're planning for higher quality than Netflix. I think the battle will end up being over content people actively want to watch vs. content they'll watch if they're bored.
Also, HBO will have nothing this year to further wobble the clay feet of HBO Max.
I think assistant rates will rise, but with that cost it might be mean less assistants and more responsibilities on each one and maybe it means less assistants being promoted to coordinators or junior managers.
One thing that really strikes me as a difference from when I was young here, and I think wages have a lot to do with it - is the huge percent of second generation showbiz people ...in all the fields. I feel like to just come to LA with no means of support other than your pay, and get a job in showbiz, support yourself on salary at the bottom rungs, and rise up the ranks...Even on 18 an hour, that seems an accomplishment so heroic it's basically a unicorn.
I hope that's not the case. I'm sure I'm not the only assistant who's filed monthly expense reports equalling half my salary, or seen sums of money equal to or greater than my salary given as a "thank you gift" to talent for doing something low-effort like giving feedback on a project they've already been paid hundreds of thousands of dollars for, or heard the phrase "rounding error" applied to sums of money that are multiples of my salary. The money to pay assistants decently exists, the people with the money are just choosing to spend it on people who already have plenty of money, not the people who actually need that money to live.