Closing Arguments for This Year’s Best Picture Frontrunners
As Oscar voting nears its end, the case for 14 top contenders
If Oscar season were a courtroom drama, this would be the part where the lawyers are pacing in front of the jury box, making their final forceful arguments and just enough intimidating eye contact. Oscar nomination voting closes tomorrow at 5 p.m. PT, so if you’re wondering why you’ve been seeing stunts like Goldie Hawn interviewing her daughter, Kate Hudson, Robert Downey Jr. praising Timothée Chalamet or Kevin Bacon hanging out with Amanda Seyfried, it’s because the buzzer is about to go off, and every second counts.
Over at our Prestige Junkie Pundits page, our group of geniuses is taking pretty good stock of the state of things as voting closes. Hamnet, One Battle After Another, Sinners and Sentimental Value are predicted best picture nominees from 100 percent of our pundits, while over in the best original song race, “Golden” from KPop Demon Hunters is the only thing everyone can agree on. If you’re an Oscar voter, I also really, really hope you scroll through to see some of the more longshot predictions and maybe inspire yourself to stick your neck out for something smaller. Be like Joe Reid and put Wake Up Dead Man on your best adapted screenplay ballot! Follow Gregory Ellwood’s lead and keep Billy Crudup in the best supporting actor mix for Jay Kelly.
On the other hand, you could simply follow the lead of the awards campaigns themselves, which have been honing their closing arguments in recent weeks, with a boost from the televised awards shows giving their stars a chance to speak for themselves. Today, I’m rounding up the final pitches from 14 top best picture contenders, from the ones all but assured of being nominated to the scrappier hopefuls pulling out all the stops to make the cut. The lucky ones who do will have the honor of having their names read next Thursday morning by Danielle Brooks and Lewis Pullman, announced today as this year’s Oscar nomination presenters. (Personally, I’ll be hoping that Pullman, part of the ensemble of The Testament of Ann Lee, gets to read out the film’s name at least one time. Let me dream!)
But first, one more reminder that we’ve started the year strong over on Prestige Junkie After Party. Last week brought an all-star lineup of guests making their big bets for the year ahead; tomorrow, Christopher Rosen and I share our 2026 movie and TV preview, from the summer blockbusters we’re most excited about to the future Oscar contenders and former winners we’re already rooting for (Anne Hathaway, you have a standing invite to join me any time!). Subscribe today and see you there!
Next week, I’ll offer my final Oscar nomination predictions with Chris on the Prestige Junkie podcast; then we’ll be back on Thursday with instant reactions to the snubs and surprises of nominations morning. Busy times ahead! But first, those closing arguments.
1. One Battle After Another
The argument: “It’s one for the ages”
One Battle After Another is probably the year’s only contender that can simply sit back and remind voters that it merely exists. The most telling pull quote it keeps using is “it’s one for the ages,” a promise that the Paul Thomas Anderson film isn’t just this year’s best, but maybe already one of the best of all time. (Even Martin Scorsese agrees!) It’s a bold claim that would backfire for a movie without this level of universal acclaim, and it is also a useful counterweight to Anderson’s more modest awards season presence. In his televised speeches at the Golden Globes and Critics Choice as well as longer, untelevised ones at critics’ awards in New York and L.A., Anderson has seemed eager to put the focus elsewhere; at Critics Choice, he practically begged a member of his cast to take the microphone instead. The bad news is that he has many more speeches yet to give; the good news is that he doesn’t need to hustle at all to keep winning.
2. Hamnet
The argument: “Keep your heart open”
Though it doesn’t lack effusive pull quotes for its posters (including “one of the best films ever made”), Hamnet is also leaning into the tagline, “keep your heart open,” paired with soulful images of stars Jessie Buckley and Paul Mescal. It’s a canny reminder of the film’s emotional wallop but also a way to set it apart from headier competition like One Battle After Another or It Was Just an Accident. Sure, those movies might also be masterpieces, but this is the one that really makes you feel. (Neon did almost the same thing last year with Anora, urging voters to “follow your heart.” Presumably, they did, since it won best picture.)
Like any good campaign slogan, there’s also some truth to it. Presenting Hamnet with its best film win at the Movies for Grownups Awards last weekend, Sharon Stone was overcome with emotion. Accepting Hamnet’s best drama win at the Globes, director Chloé Zhao paused to acknowledge the people who worked on the film who had experienced their own recent losses and quoted Mescal with what could be an alternative tagline for the entire movie: “The most important thing about being an artist is learning to be vulnerable enough to allow ourselves to be seen.” From the breathing exercises Zhao used to introduce the film back at its festival premieres to that moment on the Globes stage, the Hamnet campaign has been all about emotion — and impressively consistent.
3. Sinners
The argument: A cultural phenomenon from a visionary director
Here’s how big a star Sinners director Ryan Coogler is right now: People can’t stop talking about him, even when they’re accepting awards for other films. Anderson shouted him out while accepting best director at the Critics Choice Awards, as did Zhao when Hamnet won at the Globes. His Sinners team has had plenty to say, too, with Delroy Lindo and casting director Francine Maisler praising him from the stage at Critics Choice and the Movies for Grownups Awards. When Coogler does get to speak, as when accepting the film’s cinematic and box office achievement award at the Globes, he brings the same casual film-nerd charm he did in that viral Kodak video. Bet you $10 he’s the only award winner this season who mentions “performance fishing gear” in an acceptance speech.
The images in the Sinners FYC ads really speak for themselves, emphasizing the meticulous design details, Michael B. Jordan’s dual performance, and the ecstatic musical sequences at the heart of the film. The ads don’t also remind you that it’s likely to be the year’s highest-grossing best picture nominee, but the awards show speeches definitely do; every time someone thanks Warner Bros. film chiefs Mike De Luca and Pam Abdy, who doesn’t flash back to all that drama about how much the film cost, and the incredible vindication of their big gamble paying off?
4. Sentimental Value
The argument: Remember how much you’ve loved us all along!
The Joachim Trier film had its entire pitch in place from the very beginning, releasing ahead of its Cannes premiere what’s still the film’s definitive image: Sisters (played by Renate Reinsve and Inge Ibsdotter Lilleaas) in an embrace, a whole range of complicated emotions playing across both faces. With appealingly minimalist, appropriately Scandinavian posters and FYC ads, Sentimental Value has been primarily relying on the film and the in-person charms of its cast to remind voters of its powers — and got a huge boost in that department with Stellan Skarsgård’s Golden Globe win on Sunday. His speech started low-key but ended in rousing praise for the moviegoing experience — exactly the same message, as it happens, that distributor Neon’s best director winner Sean Baker was hammering home this time last year. Coincidence? You tell me!
5. It Was Just an Accident
The argument: Jafar Panahi, Jafar Panahi, Jafar Panahi
A living legend even before his most recent legal rebuke from the Iranian government, Jafar Panahi’s presence in this awards season has yet to stop feeling anything short of miraculous. Whether giving forceful speeches about the protests currently happening in his home country or pausing for a party photo op with a Heated Rivalry star, Panahi has approached the awards circus with the kind of measured cool you maybe can only have when your mind is on much more important things. Given that the cast of It Was Just An Accident is primarily non-actors and traveling in and out of Iran is no simple thing, Panahi himself is more or less the film’s entire awards campaign, and an incredibly successful one at that.
6. Marty Supreme
The argument: Dream big with Timothée Chalamet
There was a fair bit of whiplash between the Timothée Chalamet we saw in November and December as he promoted the release of Marty Surpeme — shooting hoops with Adam Sandler, shouting on Zoom, standing on top of the Sphere — and the one who re-emerged in January for its awards run, giving sincere speeches in Palm Springs and at the Critics Choice and Golden Globes awards. He’s wearing standard dark suits, and his hair is growing back in nicely (after having shaved his head for Dune 3). He’s also now very likely to win the best actor Oscar, a remarkable feat given the strength of the field that surrounds him.
A24 famously doesn’t go in for a lot of the traditional FYC billboards and trade ads, so it’s Chalamet doing most of the legwork in these final days of the campaign, in addition to the film’s still-robust box office numbers. Timmy’s dreaming big; will voters dream big with him?
7. The Secret Agent
The argument: Brazil’s most dynamic duo
Technically, this video that Kleber Mendonça Filho posted of Wagner Moura dancing the samba after his Golden Globe win isn’t an official FYC campaign blast, but it sure is as powerful as one:
Mendonça’s Instagram — an incredible follow — has captured every moment of his and Moura’s tireless awards campaign for The Secret Agent, which started when each of them won an award at Cannes and hasn’t slowed down since. It’s still a little surprising to me that this twisty, unconventional film has taken off so much with awards voters, but I think that’s in huge part thanks to Mendonça and Moura themselves, longtime friends who are both great at explaining how their film reflects Brazilian history and politics and seem to be having a genuinely great time traveling the world together. Who wouldn’t want to get in on that dance party?
8. Frankenstein
The argument: You love Guillermo del Toro
Whenever you ask someone how Frankenstein boomeranged from its weak film festival reception to a strong Oscar contender, there’s almost always the same answer: Guillermo del Toro. The avuncular Oscar winner is a familiar face in Hollywood, even when he doesn’t have a movie to promote, regularly hosting Q&As for other filmmakers and sharing his love of classic movie monsters and the craft behind them. So when it’s del Toro’s turn to hit the awards circuit, there are a lot of people very eager to greet him, and maybe even stop by the museum exhibit of Frankenstein costume and props that Netflix set up for a limited run on Wilcox Avenue.
9. Train Dreams
The argument: Feelings aren’t just for Hamnet!
When I saw a billboard on Sunset Boulevard showing a key scene from very late in Train Drams, I was baffled that Netflix would so willingly spoil one of the loveliest moments in their film. Then I talked to someone who argued that, if you’ve seen the movie, it will conjure up all the beautiful moments; if you haven’t seen it, it won’t mean anything at all.
The underdog I’ve been rooting for all season, Train Dreams is cruising toward the finish line with a steady-as-she-goes pace, still leaning on Clint Bentley and Joel Edgerton to show up just about everywhere while also pulling out a few stops — the screening at the Egyptian Theatre with a live score from Bryce Dessner last week was an especially nice touch, and Oscar winner Cate Blanchett’s stamp of approval (watch the video above) couldn’t hurt either. (Remember when Blanchett gave Andrea Riseborough a shout-out while accepting best actress at the Critics Choice Awards in 2023, and then Riseborough landed that shock Oscar nomination? I’m JUST SAYING!)
10. Bugonia
The argument: “The movie of the moment”
The Focus Features release has shown surprising strength in the past few weeks, landing major precursor nominations from the Producers Guild (where it was among the year’s best picture nominees) and Screen Actors Guild, where Emma Stone and Jesse Plemons are both Actor Award nominees. I guess that means it is, very literally, “the movie of the moment,” as some recent FYC ads have been proclaiming. That line seems to be stepping a bit into One Battle After Another’s territory, but I’m not sure how else to describe Yorgos Lanthimos’ odd freakout of a film, which focuses on a conspiracy theorist who thinks a wealthy pharma CEO is an alien hellbent on destroying the planet. It’s clearly lingering in voters’ minds, no surprise since the ending is as bonkers and bleak as any this year. So Bugonia might be the movie of a moment you’d rather escape — but what better way is there to sum up the vibe of this era?
11. F1
12. Avatar: Fire and Ash
The argument: Blockbusters with big songs to go with them
With neither film likely to score acting nominations, both F1 and Avatar: Fire and Ash have been leaning heavily into the next available stars: the singers of their end credits ballads. Ed Sheeran, of F1’s “Drive,” performed on Jimmy Kimmel’s late-night show earlier this week, while Miley Cyrus was the headliner for a night devoted to the music of Avatar: Fire and Ash last Friday. Pop stars surely drive more attendees at FYC events than sound mixers and visual effects supervisors — and at this stage in the game, eyeballs are what you need most of all.
13. Wicked: For Good
The argument: You have been changed… for good
Even with the awards outlook for the Wicked sequel rapidly dimming, star Ariana Grande and the film’s final FYC push have been gamely working the town, with billboards and ads leaning heavily on the film’s hugest emotional moments. I always say voters go with their hearts, not their heads, when they finally face their ballots (see, once again, the Neon campaign for Anora last year), so reminding them of the genuine emotional power of something like the “For Good” musical moment is certainly the best card this film can play outside of the more cynical pitch that, hey, you loved the first movie!
14. Jay Kelly
The argument: Adam Sandler and George Clooney… heard of ’em?
The two stars of Jay Kelly were front and center at the Golden Globes on Sunday night as well as at the Movies for Grownups Awards the day before, with Sandler receiving the show’s career achievement award and Clooney accepting best actor. You know what both of these guys are great at? Giving speeches and working the room. FYC ads have also leaned heavily on the dynamic duo, whose combined starpower is bigger than nearly anything else in this year’s race. It most likely won’t pay off — Jay Kelly has taken on so much water, with misses at the PGA Awards, DGA Awards, Actors Awards and multiple BAFTA longlists snubs, save Sandler — but it’s hard not to appreciate the effort.