Best Actor: The Case For and Against 16 Contenders
The calculus that could swing voters in a race that includes Clooney, DiCaprio, Michael B. Jordan & Dwayne Johnson
Happy Thursday! If you’re a Swiftie, I hope you’re caffeinating properly to stay awake for the release of The Life of a Showgirl tonight. Personally, I’m not sure I’ll stay up that late, but I will be on Substack Live bright and early Friday morning to discuss all things Taylor Swift and Hollywood, alongside my After Party compatriot Christopher Rosen and, in a very special collaboration, Hunter Harris! You can join us live at 10 a.m. ET / 7 a.m. PT at this link right here, and see if we can answer the question that’s haunted me for nearly a decade now: Will Taylor ever win that Oscar?
Not this year — her in-theater release event for The Life of a Showgirl does not appear to be Oscar eligible in any categories — but there’s a decent chance that another megastar will. Today, I’m going long on this year’s wildly unpredictable best actor race.
Best in Show
The aging icons are in crisis. The scrappy up-and-comers are fighting for their lives. And from around the world, actors who have gone unrecognized here are eager to barge through the door.
It’s tempting to depict this year’s best actor race as a battle, with every stripe of movie star scraping for one of just five nomination slots. But another way to think about it is as a celebration: an incredibly rich lineup of performances proving that real movie acting — as threatened as it sometimes seems to be — remains capable of so much. And after some recent Oscar years when, let’s be honest, there were barely enough exciting lead actor performances to fill the category (remember 2023, when Tom Cruise was being seriously predicted — and would have belonged — as a nominee for Top Gun: Maverick?), we’re looking at an incredibly competitive race, packed with great performances and grand Oscar season narratives to go with them.
This is reflected in the disparate predictions of the Prestige Junkie pundits (more on those picks in Friday’s subscriber-only After Party send). But fresh off the release of One Battle After Another, and having seen both Springsteen: Deliver Me From Nowhere and Jay Kelly at the New York Film Festival, I’ve got a pretty good handle on the performances in the mix this year — even with a few still left to see. As I did two weeks ago for best picture, today I’ll be considering the contenders, in my current order of their likelihood to be nominated, starting at No. 1. (As you’ll see, it’s a real moving target.)
I’ll get into the case for their nomination as well as what could be standing in their way, with three long months of campaigning still to go before the nominations and plenty still to change. Oscar voters will probably wind up with one of the strongest best actor lineups of the past decade, almost no matter whom they nominate. That’s still not going to make it easy.
1. Leonardo DiCaprio, One Battle After Another
Age: 50
Previous nominations: 6
Previous wins: 1 (best actor, The Revenant, 2016)
The case for him: The most dominant movie star of the 21st century — and the star of the most talked-about best picture contender of the moment — is quite possibly the only person on this list guaranteed a nomination. Leonardo DiCaprio’s performance as a former left-wing radical trying to find and save his daughter from an aggrieved white supremacist military operator anchors the sprawling, thrilling One Battle After Another, and the way he uses his star power to get greenlights for movies this ambitious ought to be an inspiration for anyone in the business who wants to ensure that movies can still matter.
The case against him: The Academy can be notoriously indifferent to DiCaprio, snubbing some of his best performances in past decades (Django Unchained, Catch Me If You Can) and leaving him out just two years ago for Killers of the Flower Moon. Right now, One Battle After Another feels too dominant to be ignored. We’ll see how that holds up come January.
2. Jesse Plemons, Bugonia
Age: 37
Previous nominations: 1
Previous wins: 0
The case for him: I haven’t yet seen Bugonia, but Jesse Plemons seems to be the one part of Yorgos Lanthimos’ new movie absolutely everyone can agree on — and just ask Oscar winners Olivia Colman (The Favourite) and Emma Stone (Poor Things) how powerful it can be to be the highlight of a Lanthimos project. Plemons has a resume to rival DiCaprio’s, having played a role in seven best picture nominees since 2016 (for your trivia leagues: Bridge of Spies, The Post, Vice, The Irishman, Judas and the Black Messiah, The Power of the Dog, Killers of the Flower Moon). His first Oscar win feels inevitable, if not this year, then very soon.
The case against him: Plemons won the best actor prize at Cannes last year for Lanthimos’ Kinds of Kindness, which was too odd even for the current version of the Academy. We still don’t quite know if Bugonia — a dark comedy about a conspiracy theorist (Plemons) who kidnaps a callous #girlboss pharmaceutical CEO (Stone) because he thinks she’s an alien — will go over any better.
3. Michael B. Jordan, Sinners
Age: 38
Previous nominations: 0
Previous wins: 0
The case for him: Playing both lead roles in one of the year’s most talked-about movies, Michael B. Jordan is inextricable from the success of Sinners, particularly given his long-time collaboration with director Ryan Coogler. Jordan’s performance as twins Smoke and Stack, two outsiders who come to Louisiana to open a juke joint and end up battling undead vampires with terminal results, is both dominant — remember that machine gun? — and subtle, drawing out the differences between the brothers with the tiniest of gestures. It’s the best performance of what’s already been a spectacular career.
The case against him: As I argued back in the summer, Margot Robbie’s surprise best actress snub for Barbie proves that sometimes being the center of a big spectacle makes it shockingly easy to get overlooked. Sinners accomplishes so much, on so many levels, that voters might be prone to taking Jordan for granted, as they did when he was snubbed for Fruitvale Station, Black Panther and Creed.
4. George Clooney, Jay Kelly
Age: 64
Previous nominations: 4 for acting, 4 in other categories
Previous wins: 2 (best supporting actor, Syriana, 2006; best picture as a producer of Argo, 2013)
The case for him: An iconic movie star playing a movie star with a name that sounds suspiciously like his own, George Clooney is going meta and reflective in Noah Baumbach’s new film, and it’s a perfect fit. One of the most natural, appealing movie stars we’ve ever had, Clooney has spent more of the last decade directing than acting (his last acting nomination, in fact, was 15 years ago, for The Descendants). Fortunately, Jay Kelly is evidence of just how well Clooney holds a movie together, and how much depth lies behind that glittering smile. Baumbach’s latest stars Clooney as a man at the crossroads of his life, with miles of bad personal decisions in the rear-view mirror. The fact that Jay Kelly deliberately blurs the lines between fact and fiction makes it an even more prime opportunity to celebrate Clooney’s entire career.
The case against him: Like so many Baumbach heroes, Jay Kelly is prickly and difficult, and it’s unclear if the modern Academy has as much affection for inside baseball Hollywood stories as previous generations might have.
5. Jeremy Allen White, Springsteen: Deliver Me From Nowhere
Age: 34
Previous nominations: 0
Previous wins: 0
The case for him: After Jeremy Allen White won back-to-back Emmys and leaped into stardom with The Bear, playing Bruce Springsteen at a pivotal moment in the singer’s life — when Springsteen recorded the acclaimed lo-fi album Nebraska — feels like a natural next step. White’s performance in Scott Cooper’s movie borders on uncanny recreation at times (watch him in that clip above). Still, he also leans deep into the insecurity and depression Springsteen was feeling at the time, in addition to nailing the singing scenes. It’s exactly the expansion of his star-making work on The Bear you would hope to see.
The case against him: Reviews for the movie have been less strong than the acclaim for White himself, which can be tough to overcome. And just a year after A Complete Unknown’s Oscar success, Springsteen could find itself still stuck in that film’s shadow.
6. Timothée Chalamet, Marty Supreme
Age: 29
Previous nominations: 2
Previous wins: 0
The case for him: Still sight unseen, Josh Safdie’s Marty Supreme is already being earmarked as a major Oscar player on the strength of a great trailer and the presence of Timothée Chalamet and Gwyneth Paltrow alone. Chalamet’s recent box office run (the Dune movies, Wonka, A Complete Unknown) could make this movie about an underdog table tennis player with dreams of becoming a huge star an unlikely Christmas hit. Given how close Chalamet presumably came to winning for A Complete Unknown, there could be enthusiasm to finally give him the Oscar this time.
The case against him: No one has seen the movie yet, so there’s no telling if it’s actually earning any of this hype. And in a contest between Gen Z heartthrob Chalamet and DiCaprio, the Gen X heartthrob he’s so closely modeled his career on, DiCaprio may still have the edge. Plus, at 29 (he turns 30 in December), Chalamet is still a baby in terms of this category: Adrien Brody remains the youngest best actor winner ever (Brody was just shy of his 30th birthday when he won for The Pianist in 2003), and Chalamet — already the youngest actor since James Dean to receive multiple best actor nominations — would be the second-youngest if he pulls it off for Marty Supreme. Maybe it’s still not his time.
7. Wagner Moura, The Secret Agent
Age: 49
Previous nominations: 0
Previous wins: 0
The case for him: A year after I’m Still Here’s breakout Oscar success, there’s more attention on Brazilian cinema than ever. Like I’m Still Here, The Secret Agent continues the film’s impulse to look back at Brazil’s history of the 1970s, issuing warnings that feel particularly relevant to Americans today. Moura is a star in Brazil but has also worked steadily in the United States on shows like Narcos and Dope Thief. After winning the best actor award in Cannes for this film, his star seems bound to rise even higher.
The case against him: The Secret Agent is not quite as accessible as I’m Still Here, and with its exceptional production design and big, rambling cast, Moura occasionally fades to the margins of Kleber Mendonça Filho’s ambitious film, about a former teacher embroiled in political turmoil.
8. Dwayne Johnson, The Smashing Machine
Age: 53
Previous nominations: 0
Previous wins: 0
The case for him: A huge movie star transforming himself and giving soul-baring interviews about how much his craft means to him is a classic Oscar playbook. Enter Dwayne Johnson, who is poised to prove a lot of doubters wrong with his soulful, fully committed performance in The Smashing Machine as mixed-martial arts fighter Mark Kerr, who struggled with addiction while becoming one of the sport’s first stars. Johnson already has been very visible on the campaign circuit, and few Academy voters are likely to be immune to the power of that caliber of star in person.
The case against him: Festival reception for The Smashing Machine was somewhat muted, even after director Benny Safdie’s Venice win. And as DiCaprio, Clooney and many other megastars could probably tell you, sometimes being a giant celebrity can cost you Oscar votes — after all, do you really need a gold statue when you’ve already got so much else?
9. Joel Edgerton, Train Dreams
Age: 51
Previous nominations: 0
Previous wins: 0
The case for him: A hit at Sundance and a crowd pleaser at every festival it’s played since, Train Dreams is already a proven success in a field still full of question marks. Last year, Clint Bentley and Greg Kwedar’s collaboration Sing Sing earned Colman Domingo a best actor nomination; with the filmmakers reteaming for Train Dreams, they seem more than capable of pulling it off again for Joel Edgerton.
The case against him: Train Dreams is a small movie, and Edgerton gives a restrained, low-key performance that may be less attention-grabbing than the rest of the field.
10. Paul Mescal, Hamnet
Age: 29
Previous nominations: 1
Previous wins: 0
The case for him: Hamnet was a smash hit at the fall festivals, and though plenty of attention has rightly gone to Mescal’s co-star Jessie Buckley, he is just as essential to the film’s emotional wallop and immersive beauty as William Shakespeare. Mescal’s nomination for Aftersun a few years ago proves he’s on the Academy’s radar, and his Hamnet performance may truly be even better.
The case against him: It’s unclear if Focus will campaign him as a lead or supporting actor, which is the main reason he’s so far down this list. Best actor is far more competitive at the moment, but I think his odds of a nomination are strong no matter where he lands.
11. Lee Byung-hun, No Other Choice
Age: 55
Previous nominations: 0
Previous wins: 0
The case for him: A superstar in South Korea whose Hollywood ventures have mostly been in action movies or as a supporting player on Squid Game, Lee Byung-hun is already part of the year’s biggest hit thanks to his voice role in KPop Demon Hunters as the main villain. But he’s poised for a major awards breakthrough moment, too, and his full-bore, tragicomic turn in Park Chan-wook’s latest feels well-suited for it. Playing a man who is laid off and goes a little crazy as a result, Lee and his performance are perfectly pitched to the film’s black comic tone that feels more suited to the cultural zeitgeist than nearly any other film this year.
The case against him: Unlike other international contenders like Sentimental Value, It Was Just an Accident and The Secret Agent, No Other Choice is getting a relatively late start in the season after its Venice premiere (screening now, but out in theaters in December). The film’s distributor, Neon, is releasing all three of those other titles, so they need to make sure to somehow have the resources to give a proper push to all of them.
12. Ethan Hawke, Blue Moon
Age: 54
Previous nominations: 4 (two for acting, two for writing)
Previous wins: 0
The case for him: Nearly 40 years into his career, Hawke is on an enviable hot streak, touring fall festivals with the Richard Linklater-directed Blue Moon while also starring in the acclaimed new FX series The Lowdown and also leading the upcoming horror sequel The Black Phone 2. His performance as the Broadway legend Lorenz Hart in Blue Moon is captivating and hilarious in this small gem of a film, which Sony Pictures Classics ought to be able to carefully promote to the exact right audience — Academy members included.
The case against him: The movie is small, and it was his co-star, Andrew Scott, who won the acting prize for it at the Berlin Film Festival. Like DiCaprio and Clooney, Hawke has seemingly been underestimated by Academy voters in the past.
13. Will Arnett, Is This Thing On?
Age: 55
Previous nominations: 0
Previous wins: 0
The case for him: Nobody I know has even seen Is This Thing On?, but it premieres at the New York Film Festival next week. That’s a prestigious spot befitting anything from Bradley Cooper, whose two films as a director, A Star Is Born and Maestro, have earned an incredible combined 15 Oscar nominations — including two best actor noms for Cooper himself. Will Arnett has his own bona fides, hosting one of the world’s most popular podcasts (SmartLess) and with six Emmy nominations for his TV work.
The case against him: The movie is still a question mark — it’s about a guy going through a divorce who turns to stand-up comedy as he approaches middle age. So, who knows if it’s good enough to stay in the race? And as not just a star but now a mobile phone company mogul, Arnett could face the same “doesn’t he already have enough?” skepticism as some of the other superstars in this race.
14. Brendan Fraser, Rental Family
Age: 56
Previous nominations: 1
Previous wins: 1 (best actor, The Whale, 2023)
The case for him: The film is Brendan Fraser’s follow-up to his best actor win for The Whale, and halo nominations are a reasonably common Academy occurrence — once you’re in the club, they want to keep you in. (Recent examples include Jennifer Lawrence for Joy after winning for Silver Linings Playbook and Colman for The Lost Daughter after winning for The Favourite.) After debuting at TIFF, Rental Family is making its way through the fall festival circuit, providing plenty of opportunities for Fraser to reconnect with the voters who propelled him to victory just a few years ago.
The case against him: The film, about a struggling actor (Fraser) who lives in Japan and takes jobs helping real people overcome intense personal traumas, was surely not the hit at TIFF that Searchlight was hoping for — it seemed tailor-made for the festival’s audience award, and didn’t even place. With so many very strong contenders from beloved films in this category — and competition internally at Searchlight from Arnett — Fraser will have to work hard to make his way to the top tier.
15. Oscar Isaac, Frankenstein
Age: 46
Previous nominations: 0
Previous wins: 0
The case for him: This epic monster movie from Guillermo del Toro actually did place for the People’s Choice Award in Toronto, and will likely reach a large audience of horror fans when it launches on Netflix later this fall. Isaac is also glaringly overdue for recognition from the Academy — I’m still trying to figure out how he missed for Inside Llewyn Davis — and his role as Viktor Frankenstein is among his most ambitious.
The case against him: Isaac’s performance hasn’t been singled out for praise the same way as his co-star Jacob Elordi, who plays the monster. (Of note: The new trailer for Frankenstein that Netflix released this week — watch it above — is almost wholly focused on Elordi.) And although Frankenstein is a competitive contender in many categories, it may struggle in best picture, which would make it harder for Isaac to break into this tight race.
16. Daniel Day-Lewis, Anemone
Age: 68
Previous nominations: 6
Previous wins: 3 (best actor, My Left Foot, 1990; best actor, There Will Be Blood, 2008; best actor, Lincoln, 2013)
The case for him: You underestimate Daniel Day-Lewis at your own risk. Arguably the greatest actor of all time, Day-Lewis already has three best actor Oscars and hasn’t made a movie in eight years, which automatically makes his latest feature, Anemone, a must-see event. The new film was co-written by Day-Lewis and his son Ronan Day-Lewis (who also makes his feature directorial debut), and focuses on a former soldier (Daniel Day-Lewis) living in solitude, who reconnects with his estranged brother (Sean Bean). (After Party subscribers, stay tuned for more on Daniel Day-Lewis coming tomorrow!)
The case against him: Reviews for Anemone have been mixed, and Daniel Day-Lewis has never seemed all that fond of the promo circuit, making a full-fledged campaign feel unlikely. With three Oscars already, what does he really need to prove?