An Economist’s Hard Truths: Where to Pivot Your Career NOW — and the Next Strikes Looming
Patrick Adler’s data reveals AI’s impact, why strikes hit when ‘the pie is shrinking’ and the high-pay sector where Hollywood can still win
I write about TV from L.A. and host the podcast Ankler Agenda with Elaine Low. I reported on sports doc fatigue, brand-funded TV, a top unscripted agent’s take on the market & what insiders expect from new Amazon TV head Peter Friedlander. I’m elaine@theankler.com
A lot of the conversations I’ve had around Los Angeles lately boil down to one question: Are things really that bad — or do they just feel that bad?
To find out, I called up economic researcher Dr. Patrick Adler, whose data paints the clearest picture yet of Hollywood’s mid-decade slump — and where those in the creative class can still find huge opportunity. And man, stay tuned for his thoughts about what really caused the most recent WGA and SAG-AFTRA strikes and what he thinks might be coming as labor negotiations begin in 2026.
But first, a little table-setting.
My colleagues Sean McNulty, Natalie Jarvey and I just tackled the entertainment economy on the first episode of The Ankler’s newly relaunched weekly podcast, Ankler Agenda with Elaine Low, which I like to think of as your savvy insider friend at an industry cocktail party. Give a listen, and if you like it (which you will), please rate and subscribe.
No doubt, much of our uncertainty today stems from the fact that what brought us here has no precedent: streaming, the pandemic, twin strikes, the exodus of production out of L.A., and now AI — all colliding within a few short years. And things feel bad.
Paramount Skydance had 1,000 layoffs last week, alongside cuts at Amazon Studios, Fifth Season and Disneyland; FilmLA numbers that show a 20.7 percent year-over-year decline in TV’s Q3 2025 shooting days in L.A.; unemployment rates in L.A. that way outpace the national figure; and the quiet panic that even more workers get axed in whatever the next Warner Bros. Discovery looks like.
But there are also green shoots of optimism: the enhanced $750 million California film and TV tax credit program projected to infuse $1.4 billion into the local economy; Paramount Skydance reentering the ring as a real contender to order new shows (under streaming head Cindy Holland); Amazon Studios’ equally highly regarded new TV head; and new Paramount and Netflix studio campuses in New Jersey that promise to keep entertainment jobs at least stateside.
But Adler relies on hard data, not just vibes and headlines.
Last spring, Adler co-authored a report with Los Angeles’ Otis College of Art and Design that concluded that while the film and TV industry in L.A. was “a little wounded,” SoCal was still the place to be for entertainment and that wages in the business remain 60 percent higher than the national average because “local workers have skills that [the industry] cannot find in other locations.” The co-founder of Westwood Economics & Planning Associates and an assistant professor at the University of Hong Kong, Adler specializes in studying the creative economy.
So in today’s Series Business, I’ll give you a sense of what’s really happening in the heart of Hollywood and what the future holds through Adler’s research:
Labor fury: The climate that played a part in the last WGA and SAG-AFTRA strikes, whether those strikes caused the current downturn and — more tellingly — what he sees happening in the next negotiations
Where the jobs are: The big growth arena in Los Angeles County’s creative sector employment and just how much more it pays than traditional Hollywood
Jobs plunge: The shocking figure reflecting the change in employment from Peak TV to the start of 2025
Headwinds: Two overwhelming factors keeping TV employment down even as buyers are starting to pick up more shows
Our new CYA culture: Execs’ “protect your butt” protocols that are blocking new voices
Widening gap: The earnings gulf between the haves and have-nots in Hollywood
Next gen: The “tough as nails” cohort of creatives being forged by the current crisis and how they can help reshape the future
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