☀️What the First 5 Months of 2023 will reveal

PLUS: Zero 'looking back' at 2022! 🥳 Instead, what actually is on the calendar thru May, and things to keep an eye on

Mornin! Uh, to my… Australia readers (hi guys 👋). This is Sean McNulty (connect with me on LinkedIn here if ya like), a good afternoon to the American contingent, and welcome to 2023.

Where I’ll start the year on a note of pure sincerity (don’t worry, that’s not a 2023 resolution) with a heartfelt thank you all for reading this thing, and for those of you who took time from your day to send me an email note in 2022 (seanmcnultynyc@gmail.com) - whether reaching out with question to better explain something, sending an additional perspective to consider, just to say hi 👋, or to tell me I spelled your name wrong.

All were very appreciated (yes, including yours Timotheé Chalamet). Also a sincere thanks to Janice & Richard for inviting The Wakeup and I over here to The Ankler universe in 2022 - certainly was not remotely any career prediction I made a year ago… and while I had no expectations coming in, it’s certainly exceeded any I could have imagined - it continues to be awesome to work with you both. Assuming you read this thing.

via Giphy

PLUS: How HBOMAX didn’t get a carve-out to stream, and make a bigger event out of the NHL Winter Classic today as part of their NHL deal (their annual outdoor NEW YEARS game - this year in Fenway Park) is a big missed opportunity. #Bundle-onlyTNT🙄.

HOUSEKEEPING NOTE: Tomorrow’s Wakeup will once again arrive early afternoon NYC time, to allow for a full Box Office breakdown including today’s holiday/4-day weekend updates.

The usual morning Wakeup cadence will return on Wednesday.

For the record, I don’t have a chicken. via Giphy

IN TODAY’S EDITION:

Thankfully HOLLYWOOD mostly kept to a news drought over the holidays (with condolences going out to the family of pioneering journalist Barbara Walters, and keeping a steady recovery thought for Jeremy Renner).

So as you’re likely on the tail end of a barrage of 2023 prediction emails… very, very few of which were accompanied by a breakdown of the 2022 predictions from said experts... ahem, I think we can all agree there’s no need for another one (or arguably, the previous ones). After all, a correct Media Biz prediction and $2.75 will get you on the subway.

Certainties, not predictions:

• Yes, there will be a LIONSGATE deal. They told us that themselves in November. Yes they told us the same thing about STARZ in September… but it’d be bad if this one didn’t hold.

• Yes, AMC Networks is in real trouble. The odds of this company looking the same way a year from now are zero to slim.

• HBOMAX will be going through a major transformation in about 4-ish months, something most 2023 prediction pieces neglected to even mention.

• A definite Top 2023 deal will be the multi-billion one for HULU - again, this is just something that contractually will need to happen, not a prediction.

  • APPLE-DISNEY conspiracy theorists - does APPLE want to own (and run) the US-only business of HULU?

    • Also - Bob Iger didn’t return in a ‘2 year’ contract to sell DISNEY in year 1, so I’ll see you all in about a year.

• Overall 2024 is much more likely to be the bigger year of change. Likely.

  • The reported ‘tax reasons’ stopping any major WBD deal will have disappeared.

  • It’s year 2 of Iger 2.0 (ish).

  • Most Streaming biz promises to Wall Street were “… by 2024” so the chickens will be coming home to roost.

  • We’ll have a strong handle on whether Ad Tiers are a real new growth business, or niche at best.

  • Potentially a new regulatory atmosphere on the horizon in Washington depending how the election is looking.

  • Interest rates will hopefully be back at/on their way to more deal-friendly ranges.

SO…

I thought what may be useful at this point is a granular look at what’s actually ahead. Not at the whole year (you only need to look at any stock price a year ago to know no one knows anything 12 months out), but rather a look at things that will happen in the next 5 months.

• If you want to predict beyond a potential WGA strike deadline in May - the floor is yours, and yes I’ll ‘reprint’ your solid prediction again come Memorial Day.

The goal, if anything, is an attempt to provide a road map of how and where the sense of WTF-ness that engulfed us this year, may begin to abate.

A newsletter Xanax if you will. Or a reason to take an actual one depending what you take away from it.

---

The next 5 months in LaLa Land

from my New Years Eve walk, seemed like a fitting analogy for Jan 2023.

FIRST: The big 2023 themes I’ll be watching (besides any odd Covid news coming out of China):