🎧 In Search of a New Oscar Frontrunner

I game out best pic possibilities with 'Atlantic' critic David Sims as 'Anora' scores a high-profile win

CHOICE RECOGNITION Anora producer Samantha Quan, left, and star Mikey Madison celebrated the film’s best picture win at the Critics Choice Awards. (Michael Kovac/Getty Images for Critics Choice Association))

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What’s going to be our new best picture frontrunner now?

That was the question running through my mind in the moments before the big prize of the night was announced at Friday’s Critics Choice Awards. With final votes submitted nearly a month ago, I knew the show’s winners couldn’t possibly reflect the scandal that in just the past 10 days has engulfed Emilia Pérez, which had until then been seen as Oscar’s frontrunner. Still, since critics groups around the country have largely rallied behind other contenders — also in votes that were finalized long before Emilia’s controversy — I expected a different film to triumph. And given how uncertain this season has been, the Critics Choice winner could quite possibly emerge as the new film to beat.

Then, just moments after Wicked director Jon M. Chu accepted a very surprising best director award, the night’s best picture winner was . . . Anora, also known as the Palme d’Or-winning film that was our presumed best picture frontrunner eight months ago.

That’s the kind of awards season it’s been and apparently will continue to be, with a lot of worthy films getting a lot of acclaim and none of them, thus far, establishing a definitive edge over the others. On today’s episode of the Prestige Junkie podcast, which was recorded ahead of the Critics Choice Awards, I delve into all of this uncertainty with The Atlantic’s film critic David Sims.

Aside from our certainty that Emilia Pérez is no longer likely to be named best picture — a win that felt all but inevitable just over a week ago! — we can’t be all that sure about where things are headed. Sims, for one, doesn’t believe Anora can go all the way, though it’s one of his favorites of the year. It’s “not an Oscar movie,” he says. “I have gotten in fights with some other critics recently who are like, ‘Well, no, don’t count out Anora.’ And I’m like, ‘I’m counting out Anora.’”

That was, of course, before last night’s win gave Anora a boost. But hey, wouldn’t you rather dwell in a little mystery than march through a season that feels predictable from start to finish?

I’ll be at tonight’s Producers Guild Awards (voting deadline: Jan. 30), where it’s possible a different strong best picture contender will emerge, while tonight’s Directors Guild Awards (voting deadline: Feb. 7) could point us in yet another direction. We’ll have a fresh episode about all of this on Tuesday. For now, though, listen as David and I discuss what makes a film a good best picture winner, why the Oscars sometimes get it wrong, and what the best-case scenario is for this awards race in particular.

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