TV Market Forecast 2024: 'Unsteady', 'Scary', Nostalgic
Limited series sink as buyers have a '90s vibe for what television 'used to be' - and 'everybody wants a 'Night Agent', 'This Is Us''
This is second in a series examining the TV landscape of 2024 for paid subscribers. Elaine’s first piece examined what’s selling, who’s buying now. Have thoughts or experiences you want to share confidentially? Email elaine@theankler.com.
New year, new worries.
Now that Hollywood is emerging from a six month-long labor battlefield, talk of the Great Contraction lurks in every industry conversation. A sea change had already taken hold in recent years, thanks in part to a global pandemic and a corporate landscape marked by consolidation and vertical integration: streamers had fewer dollars to burn, and therefore fewer shows and films to order. Now, two strikes later, despite wins for working writers and performers, nervousness over what constitutes the new normal in 2024 has accelerated.
“There’s only one word to describe the TV landscape at the moment — and going into the New Year: Post-apocalyptic,” says one longtime writer and showrunner. “I was at a birthday party the other night. The guests were primarily TV writers and, well, the mood was more akin to a wake than a birthday party.”
But there are a few trends — not all negative — that look to be taking shape:
The one genre with evergreen demand.
Optimism over the new ad-supported streaming model.
An almost frenetic sense of nostalgia for the formats and TV style of the 1990s among buyers (more specifics below and the adjective that matters).
The shows of recent times being used as exemplars to follow.
The uneasy fate of limited series.
The very real worry that actors will now be relegated to lower-paying recurring and guest-star roles, since fewer shows mean fewer series regulars.
‘Unsteady and a Bit Scary’
Much of the anxiety centers on when the buying market will get back into full gear.