TV Chaos Underway in U.S.-Canada Trade War: 'Someone Takes the Hit'
Producers see locations changing, fewer greenlights and budget crises between 'Hollywood North' & Hollywood — even if some find hope in Jon Voight's proposal
I write about int’l TV from London. I recently reported on the European film and TV community’s resistance to Trump trade policies that could impact their industry, and I wrote about the U.K. company behind Netflix’s Adolescence.
Hello, Series Business readers. I hope you’re keeping up with #TrumpTariff Hollywood Edition, which is playing out this week like a twisty Canada-shot episode of The Last of Us. What other short-sighted punitive measure could be lurking around the corner, ready to take a fatal bite out of the industry?
While my colleague Sean McNulty broke down what Trump’s proposed 100 percent tariff on movies “made in Foreign Lands” could mean for Hollywood, and Richard Rushfield cautioned against shrugging off the president’s ambitions as completely preposterous, I’ve got an international perspective on this latest fracas. Today I drill down on Canada, one of the countries that could feel some hard knocks in the near term, regardless of whether or not Trump follows through on his most draconian avowals.
The heat has somewhat escaped from Trump’s initial declaration, especially after he said he wants the industry to be “happy” with the plan and hopes to meet representatives to discuss options.
The latest wrinkle, however, is a draft of special adviser Jon Voight’s “Make Hollywood Great Again!” proposal that calls for a bracing 120 percent tariff on foreign-shot productions that “could have been produced in the U.S.” but also suggests a 10 percent to 20 percent federal tax credit; tax treaties with other countries (currently, the U.S. doesn’t have a single one); a “Cultural Test” akin to the U.K. and Canadian models (which assign points for certain cast and crew roles filled locally, as well as spend); and a reinstatement of the Financial Interest and Syndication Rules, which would give producers more rights ownership.
The Voight manifesto, though provisional, is intriguing to internationals, and Canada in particular — among the nations in Trump’s firing line, with tariffs already in place on its steel and auto industries — is sitting up and taking note. A White House sitdown this week with Canadian leader Mark Carney featured more “51st state” posturing by the U.S. president and a firm statement from the newly elected PM that Canada is “not for sale.” Their private working lunch reportedly yielded no breakthroughs, with Carney predicting “zigzags” ahead.
With uncertainty being the only certainty in the two countries’ relationship, Canada’s film and TV industry is rattled. Known colloquially as Hollywood North, the sector supports shoots for shows including The Handmaid’s Tale, Shogun and The Night Agent and contributed nearly CAD$7 billion (around $5 billion USD) to the economy in the 2022/2023 fiscal year, which accounted for 56 percent of Canada’s total production.
“Even if Trump’s bombastic declarations don’t make their way into policy, they’re still enough to spook the horses,” one veteran producer tells me.
Some producers, however, are looking at Voight’s proposal and seeing opportunity, particularly around the prospect of a treaty.
“What Voight is pitching actually feels like a Canadian strategy,” says Letterkenny producer Mark Montefiore, “which is to protect owned and controlled shot-in-Canada content, and have exceptions for treaty co-productions.”
Today I talk to Montefiore and other top producers up north, a Vancouver actor, a Canadian Simpsons writer behind a buzzy new homegrown series and more. We dig into…
What producers think happens to greenlights, slate changes and locations in the next few months
What happens now to co-productions between the two countries
Which U.S. productions have been key to supporting Canada’s industry
How tariffs could be especially hard on smaller productions, like Hallmark movies, that have kept Vancouver actors and crews working
Why Voight’s proposal is exciting Canadian producers and other internationals
How complicated co-pro deals could be affected and who loses: "Someone’s going to take the hit"
How Trump is renewing Canadian pride (and investment) in local originals, and the show that exemplifies that today
Projects Could Be Wiped Off Slates
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