Here Come FAST Originals. Will They Work?
As Tubi launches its first scripted sitcom, free streamers need a strategy to compete with Netflix — or risk flopping like Facebook and Snapchat
ESG’s data-driven analysis for paid subscribers appears every other Thursday. He recently wrote about content libraries’ unsung role in streaming success, movies’ IP vs. originals performance, and how animation is making serious bank, almost no matter what.
If streaming has an origin story, it started back in 2011, when Netflix announced it had bought the rights for House of Cards for a then-stunning $100 million. The mythos around this purchase is streaming’s ur-narrative, when Netflix allegedly used its data to find a gem (and pay more for it) than everyone else in Hollywood. I say allegedly because everyone in town wanted this show, but that hurts the narrative, so it often gets left out or minimized in the retelling.
Netflix’s success then inspired many a company to spend handsomely on streaming originals, from Amazon to Disney to Apple to two owners of Warners to . . . America’s largest fried-chicken sandwich chain. Yes, Chick-fil-A.
Fewer folks recall that the social media platforms also dove into the originals business during the 2010s. Facebook, Snapchat and YouTube all believed that buying series was central to their strategies. How did those initiatives go again?
Yikes! Not well.
I bring this up because Tubi, whom I’ve earlier written about as something Hollywood should fear, is launching its first scripted original on Feb. 6 on its FAST platform, a workplace comedy called The Z-Suite, starring longtime TV star Lauren Graham of Gilmore Girls and Parenthood fame. (As we’ll discuss below, Tubi has branded some programming as Originals since 2021, but those shows have been either acquired from other platforms or are unscripted. As I understand it, this is Tubi’s first scripted original developed internally.)
Is this decision a brilliant move to evolve FASTs to the next level? Or a folly on par with the hundreds of millions wasted by Facebook, Snapchat and YouTube?
We won’t be able judge the success or failure of Tubi’s move based on just one TV show. Nor will we likely have much, if any, data on this show, and if we do get reliable info, it won’t be for a few weeks. But we can still assess the strategy. Tubi — and other FAST networks like Roku Channel — have more in common with those social media companies than you might think, so by assessing both streamers’ and social media’s move into originals, we’ll have more insight into whether Tubi’s push into originals will likely fail or succeed.
In this article, you’ll learn:
Why Tubi is getting into original programming now
The lesson for FASTs from how originals worked for Netflix, Amazon and Disney
The three letters that explain how subscription streamers pay for programming
YouTube’s strategic miscalculation that led to the failure of its originals
What Facebook and Snapchat got wrong about video that could ensnare Tubi
Why Tubi’s success might hinge on acting like Fox, its parent company