One of These 12 Movies Will Win the TIFF Audience Award (I Think)
The People’s Choice Award at Toronto has an enviable Oscar track record. This is my ranked list
For awards season obsessives — those of you reading this who should absolutely sign up for the Prestige Junkie After Party paid tier; more on that below — this week has felt like Christmas in July. Programmers for the Toronto International Film Festival and Venice Film Festival have revealed their initial lineups, setting the stage for the upcoming Oscar race. Half the fun of this time of year is the anticipation of what might be coming and what might surprise — and leaving aside titles that premiered at Cannes, like Neon’s top contender Sentimental Value, the unknown quality of the field right now allows every movie not just to have a fighting chance, but an unlimited upside.
As usual, the Toronto roster is massive, featuring a wide range of international and independent titles from actors-turned-directors, ascendant filmmakers and acclaimed veterans. It also includes some exclusive-to-Canada programming, such as a documentary about a 1972 Toronto production of Godspell that starred, among others, Eugene Levy and Martin Short.
Venice, meanwhile, has a trimmer slate with a more auteurist bent, offering titles like Yorgos Lanthimos’ Bugonia and Luca Guadagnino’s After the Hunt, neither of which is expected to play in Toronto a week later. (If Lanthimos follows his Poor Things playbook, the next stop for Bugonia will likely be Telluride; After the Hunt is set to have its North American premiere at the New York Film Festival at the end of September.) The glamour quotient among this year’s Venice premieres will be even higher than usual, with Julia Roberts, Emma Stone, George Clooney, Idris Elba and Emily Blunt, among many, many others, headlining films there. But though critical raves and a win of the festival’s Golden Lion can be a significant boost to an awards campaign — just ask Todd Phillips and Joker, which won the Golden Lion in 2019 to begin its unexpected Oscar run — it’s not typically the place where you learn if your film can play outside the rarefied air of a film festival.
Toronto, by contrast, provides filmmakers and campaigners with a window into the populace. The festival’s top prize, the People’s Choice Award, is voted for online by festival audience members via what feels like a very Canadian honor system of promising you’ve actually seen the movie in question. Last year’s winner, The Life of Chuck, broke what had been a 12-year streak of People’s Choice winners going on to a best picture Oscar nomination just a few months later. (The Life of Chuck, released earlier this summer by Neon, could in theory get a nomination this season, but for a multitude of reasons — including a mixed response from critics, poor box office and Neon’s many other priorities — it seems unlikely.)
Maybe that puts even more pressure on this year’s People’s Choice winner to deliver, and for the Toronto festival — celebrating its 50th anniversary this year — to prove it still has a major role to play in a fall festival ecosystem that seems to be constantly expanding. This year’s lineup feels like a very good way to do that, featuring a lot of the major titles from Venice as well as a long list of world premieres, many of which seem eager to take home that People’s Choice prize.
I’ll spend plenty more time talking about the Toronto and Venice lineups in depth in the weeks between now and the festival season kickoff in late August. A lot of that conversation will happen at Prestige Junkie After Party, our new subscriber-only section, where Christopher Rosen and I will share all our awards season deep-dive conversations with you guys. Our first bonus episode launches Aug. 1, so now is definitely the time to sign up! Details on what you can expect can be found here.
In the meantime, I’m starting with the Toronto lineup and some educated and fun guesswork: Of all of the titles revealed so far, which are the likeliest People’s Choice winners? I’ve ranked the top 12, and look forward to finding out in a few weeks just how wrong I managed to be.
12. Eleanor the Great (dir. Scarlett Johansson)
Sony Pictures Classics, which is releasing the film on Sept. 26, has known it had something good for a while — at last year’s installment of the company’s annual, lavish Toronto Film Festival dinner, Eleanor the Great was on the list of titles it was celebrating, even though it didn’t premiere until Cannes many months later. The reviews in Cannes were warm, though, not just for Johansson’s directorial debut but for her star, June Squibb, playing a woman in her 90s rebuilding her life in New York City.
Eleanor the Great may be a little small for a People’s Choice winner — Indiewire called it “a little predictable, a little bizarre” but also “an ambitious swing” — but Squibb is on a hot streak after last year’s Thelma. She and Johansson presented together at the Oscars to prove what a dynamic duo they can be (and to, in essence, kickstart this coming campaign, which, if successful, would make Squibb the oldest Oscar nominee ever). I wouldn’t rule out the impact they could make with a pleasant welcome in Toronto.
11. The Christophers (dir. Steven Soderbergh)
I’m taking a total flyer on this one, based on little other than the first look image released of stars Michaela Coel and Ian McKellen — check out that sweater he’s wearing! — and the fact that Soderbergh has already released two very good films this year, in Presence and Black Bag, so I’m really rooting for a third. (The Christophers is an acquisition title, as The Life of Chuck was last year, so whether it will land a distributor and 2025 release date is unknown.) The film’s premise feels strong as well, with Coel playing an art forger hired by McKellen’s character, a once-famous artist, to finish his canvases before he dies so that his children (presumably played by fellow costars James Corden and Jessica Gunning) can inherit the money. It has a bit of an Ocean’s Eleven con artist vibe to it, along with an emotional hook —sounds pretty audience-friendly to me.
10. Nuremberg (dir. James Vanderbilt)
World-premiering in Toronto, this historical drama comes with plenty of buzz thanks to its tony cast — Russell Crowe, Rami Malek, Michael Shannon and more — and the presence of Vanderbilt, who, before he had his name on the likes of Scream VI and The Fountain of Youth, was also the screenwriter of 2007’s Zodiac. His only previous directorial effort, 2015’s Truth, was a modest success in Toronto and, like Nuremberg, was released by Sony Pictures Classics. So why expect Nuremberg to make an even bigger impact? The Nuremberg Trials are well-established awards season territory — 1961’s Judgment at Nuremberg received 11 Oscar nominations, including best picture, with a best actor win for Maximilian Schell — and the 1945 tribunal remains relevant as its 80th anniversary approaches. A movie about putting Nazis on trial and actually making them face consequences might feel, unfortunately, remarkably cathartic for the many Americans who make up the TIFF audience.
9. Roofman (dir. Derek Cianfrance)
I still can’t quite square the jaunty, energetic trailer for Roofman (which seems to give away the entire movie) with what I know of Cianfrance from his previous two films, Blue Valentine and The Place Beyond the Pines, two of the most mournful films ever made about domestic life. But for now, I’ll take the trailer at its word and assume it will lean on Channing Tatum’s charm to play an escaped convict hiding out at a Toys “R” Us, with Kirsten Dunst and Peter Dinklage among the people he gets caught up with in the process.
The comp I keep thinking of for Roofman is 2023’s Dumb Money, which premiered in Toronto and was released in theaters by Sony just a few weeks later; Roofman is currently scheduled for a wide release in early October. Dumb Money was not an audience award winner, but at a strike-hobbled festival, it was a real bright spot, playing very well for the large premiere audience I sat with. It’s not hard to imagine Roofman performing similarly, and as someone who is eternally rooting for Tatum, I’ll be ready if it happens.
8. Train Dreams (dir. Clint Bentley)
One of the most significant titles at a very muted Sundance Film Festival this year, and picked up by Netflix for an awards run, Train Dreams is a lyrical, wistful period piece about a man named Robert Grainier (played Joel Edgerton), who works on construction of the railroad across the United States in the early 20th century — a job that keeps Robert away from his wife, Gladys (Felicity Jones), and their young daughter. Despite its beauty — on display in a new trailer for Train Dreams that Netflix released today — the movie is not at all the kind of thing you’d usually describe as a “crowdpleaser.” But Toronto audiences can often be fond of smaller-scale ambitions, with Women Talking finishing as runner-up in 2022 to The Fabelmans, and Nomadland taking the People’s Choice honor at the pandemic-impacted 2020 event. With Bentley and his creative partner Greg Kwedar still fresh off their Oscar nomination for writing Sing Sing, it feels like the right moment for them to take the next big leap. As a fan of this movie, who is well aware that Netflix has many other awards season priorities (including multiple titles on this very list), I would be thrilled to see Train Dreams receive a proper TIFF boost.
7. The Ballad of a Small Player (dir. Edward Berger)
Speaking of other Netflix priorities! Berger is making a remarkably swift follow-up to last year’s best picture nominee Conclave, reuniting with Netflix — which backed the unlikely awards campaign for his All Quiet on the Western Front — for this smaller-scale drama starring Colin Farrell as a gambler hiding out in Macau. It’s based on a novel by Lawrence Osborne, but since I’ve yet to get that one in my beach read list, all I know for now comes from the promising first-look images released last week. If you are the kind of person who responds to an image of Colin Farrell looking sad in front of some neon lights, this will surely work on you, too.
Conclave didn’t place in the People's Choice top 3 in Toronto last year, which surprised me at the time and still feels surprising given what a hit that went on to be. Maybe this is the year Berger makes up for it!
6. Good Fortune (dir. Aziz Ansari)
Call this the American Fiction slot — the comedy from a first-time feature director that could sweep into the festival and blow everyone away. Scheduled for release from Lionsgate in October, Good Fortune is a body-swapping comedy about a “budget guardian angel” (played by Keanu Reeves) who switches the lives of the downbeat Arj (Ansari) and his rich boss (Seth Rogen). Based on the trailer, it certainly looks a little sillier than American Fiction, which won the People’s Choice prize in 2023 on its way to an Oscar win for its adapted screenplay. But Toronto is a good place for comedies to launch, and Ansari — a two-time Emmy winner for writing Master of None — has assembled the kind of cast this festival will likely embrace (Reeves, Rogen, Keke Palmer and the Canadian-born Sandra Oh).
5. Hamnet (dir. Chloé Zhao)
After winning both the Golden Lion in Venice and the People’s Choice award in Toronto for 2020’s Nomadland, Zhao seemed destined to return to both festivals with Hamnet. Adapted from Maggie O’Farrell’s acclaimed novel, the film stars Jessie Buckley as Agnes, a woman living in 17th-century England whose husband (Paul Mescal) is becoming a playwright you may have heard about, named — let me look this up, so I have the spelling right — William Shakespeare. The novel is gorgeous, and effectively tells the story of the domestic tragedy that may have inspired the very famous Hamlet. It’s been high on my list of most anticipated fall titles for a while now, and could well arrive in Toronto with a massive head of steam from its Venice premiere. Focus Features is surely hoping the Nomadland lightning might strike twice.
4. Rental Family (dir. Hikari)
For now, this is the only major awards title on Searchlight’s slate, which makes me suspect a festival pickup or two may be in the studio’s future. (Perhaps Mona Fastvold’s The Testament of Ann Lee with Amanda Seyfried in the lead role, to toss one buzzy title into the atmosphere.) But Searchlight is also already all in on this directorial debut, releasing sponsored LinkedIn ads (really!) and a fake commercial (above) for the rental family enterprise at the center of the film. With Brendan Fraser starring in his first lead follow-up to his Oscar-winning performance in The Whale, and director Hikari building on the acclaim she earned for several episodes of Beef, the talent behind this one is pretty undeniable, as is the feel-good potential of a story about a man finding love and connection in a strange land. This might be the most made-for-TIFF of all the titles on this list.
3. Frankenstein (dir. Guillermo del Toro)
Like Zhao, del Toro is a TIFF veteran who will be making the quick trip back from Venice to bring his film to Canada. And like his previous TIFF entry, best picture winner The Shape of Water, Frankenstein was a Toronto-based production, which gives it a significant hometown advantage. Add that to the star quotient of the movie, which stars Oscar Isaac as Victor Frankenstein and Jacob Elordi as his monster, and Frankenstein looks like a major contender at TIFF and the entire awards season beyond. The Shape of Water somehow didn’t place among the People’s Choice winners back in 2017. Could this be the year for redemption?
2. Sentimental Value (dir. Joachim Trier)
Fresh off its acclaimed Cannes premiere, with Oscar buzz for its stars Renate Reinsve, Elle Fanning and Stellan Skarsgård, and the might of Neon behind it, Sentimental Value will almost certainly be one of the most talked-about titles on the fall festival circuit. So while Toronto audiences can often flock to the bigger world premieres — and world premieres typically win the audience award; do with that information what you will — Cannes buzz has been valuable for People’s Choice contenders in recent years. Last year, Cannes winners Emilia Pérez and Anora placed, respectively, second and third behind The Life of Chuck. In 2019, Parasite, which, like Anora, won the Palme d’Or, finished third.
I’m high on Sentimental Value for many reasons, as you’ll hear on the podcast next week, when we discuss Neon’s entire fall slate. However, I think a TIFF People’s Choice win could be a particularly significant boost for this title, which focuses on an aging filmmaker (Skarsgård) mounting an autobiographical comeback movie that he hopes will reconnect him with his estranged daughters (played by Reinsve and Inga Ibsdotter Lilleaas). Sentimental Value already boasts critical acclaim and international recognition — it won the Grand Prix prize at this year’s Cannes Film Festival, the runner-up award to the Palme d’Or — but its run in Toronto will prove whether or not Trier’s latest can appeal to a broader audience.
1. Wake Up Dead Man: A Knives Out Mystery (dir. Rian Johnson)
There’s a bit of Lucy and the football in me putting this movie in first place on this list. The first Knives Out didn’t even place among the People’s Choice contenders in 2019 (in fairness, it was a stacked year, where Taika Waititi’s Jojo Rabbit won, Marriage Story placed second and Parasite finished third; all three films were best picture nominees and eventual Oscar winners). In 2022, the Knives Out sequel, Glass Onion, came in third to The Fabelmans and Women Talking. But I can’t help thinking that the franchise is uniquely well-suited to Toronto, which doesn’t just like crowdpleasers but clever ones, particularly if the movies feature beloved, somewhat cult-y stars like Josh O’Connor, Andrew Scott, Cailee Spaeny and, of course, Daniel Craig. With this being potentially the last of the Benoit Blanc mysteries — Netflix bought the rights to just two sequels in 2021 — this feels like the perfect moment for Knives Out to finally take it home, or at the very least, a twist ending worthy of the series.