The Netflix Film Chief Favorite Is...
Jamboree edition: 'Loudermilk' last laugh; even MORE superhero spend amid slump
In today’s Thursday Jamboree edition, some thoughts and observations about goings-on in the industry, including the favorite in the Netflix film sweepstakes.
But first:
Big in Japan, and On Netflix
Proof that Netflix Has Won the Streaming Wars, Part 4: And now we have Loudermilk as example #2,943 of things that couldn’t find an audience elsewhere, then exploded on Netflix. We used to laugh that those suckers on Netflix were watching failed broadcast dramas, but no one’s laughing now. “We’ll take your flops and turn them into hits” isn’t exactly Tiffany network kind of talk, but it’s a pretty effective and cost-effective game if you can pull it off.
And if Netflix hasn’t won the Streaming Wars, give me two examples of where this has happened anywhere else.
Loudermilk, an addiction comedy, flatlined on the AT&T Audience Network (formerly Direct TV) and on Amazon Prime. For its next trick, Netflix took a show that had failed to find an audience on not one but two rivals, and turned it into a hit.
The entire internet decided 20 years ago that walled gardens don’t work. And yet Netflix has created a world where you have such a dedicated audience that it’s like things brought in from elsewhere never even existed before.
If they haven’t won, who is going to challenge them on any of this?
Which isn’t to say that everyone else should give up on the internet. Just that the race to be the world’s default service is over, unless you’ve got a really good plan on how you’re going to unseat them that includes 10 zeroes at the end of your scheme. Or... have a plan to capture a specific niche — like Disney, or HBO once upon a time — and be happy to survive there.
Or, do something totally different than everyone else is doing rather than filling up Wilshire Blvd with billboards asking “What happens when Scarlett O’Hara meets Groot and they both run away with the cast of Hello Larry?” Or another campaign proclaiming, “We’ve got a bunch of random stuff that we’re throwing together and you tell us what it adds up to!”
Superhero Fatigue Watch: Still Not Time to Panic?
Another month, another underperformer in the superhero sector.
So in the last year that list includes: Ant Man 3, The Marvels, Aquaman 2, Blue Beetle, The Flash, Shazam 2 and now Madame Web.
Exceptions: Spider-Verse 2, Guardians 3. That’s with a lot of stuff pushed back or out of the way. Anyone want to take a stab at the amount of money lost on the underperformers list in this one year? A zillion billion? That list includes some very expensive films on it.
Setting aside the sunk costs of the things already in production, say you met a guy at a bar, and he tried to get you interested in putting money into a superhero movie. And you asked him, “Well, how’s the market for superhero movies lately?” And he showed you a glance at the past year.
You’d make sure your wallet was still there and race for the door as fast as you can.
And yet, the studios are pouring as much coal in the furnace as they can. Disney has 10 Marvel films on the calendar. It’s not going overboard to say that Warners’ fate rides on its DC revamp. Sony this year has Kraven the Hunter and another Venom installment to get through.
In olden times — back like two years ago — I might have said, “A rebooted Fantastic Four under the MCU umbrella! Look at all those buzz-worthy stars! That will be incredible!”
Now I’m looking back at the 2005 and 2007 Fantastic Four movies that nobody cared much about and saying... Okay, Marvel, if you say so. Deadpool could do very well, but it’s such an anomaly in the MCU portfolio, entirely created outside their machine. Will Thunderbolts do better than The Marvels or the Eternals? Who the heck knows but I’m glad it’s not my money on that proposition.
Tremendously talented people working on these things of course who have accomplished miracles to date so I certainly don’t put it past any of them to figure out a new direction here that hooks audiences once again. But given the recent track record, rolling out one more new superhero ensemble is beginning to feel like:
Netflix Rumor Watch Gets Hotter
Names continue to swirl around the Stuber Successions Sweepstates.
One name that is making a lot of sense these days is…
