The Most Competitive Oscar Races: Part Two
A ‘Sinners’ sweep? Four below-the-line contests could point the way. Plus, the balance of power shifts in international feature
With the announcement of the BAFTA nominations earlier this week — coming, yes, after the Oscar nominations, in a real break from tradition — we’ve officially reached the end of Phase 1 of awards season. Things will pick back up next week, but now’s a good time to take stock of the major contenders we have left and to continue looking at which categories are still competitive.
But before I get back into that — following Monday’s survey of the field — allow me to hop onto a soapbox. As much as BAFTA recognized plenty of worthy films — and threw in some delightful local favorites like I Swear and The Ballad of Wallis Island — I felt a little exhausted reading over all of these categories that hewed so closely to the Oscar nominations announced just a few days earlier. Sure, it makes perfect sense that BAFTA, an organization with significant membership overlap with the Academy, would also be fond of Sinners, One Battle After Another, Hamnet, Sentimental Value and Marty Supreme. Those are the movies that made up BAFTA’s best film lineup, and — wouldn’t you know it? — earned the lion’s share of Oscar nominations last week. But shouldn’t the entire point of having a different esteemed awards body, and in a different country entirely, be to shine the spotlight in at least a slightly alternative direction?
I’ll probably write about this in the near future, but both the Oscar nominations and the BAFTA nominations feature a puzzling sameness across so many categories, as if there were only five or so movies worth considering last year (four movies received more than 10 BAFTA nominations each; six movies had at least eight nominations at the Oscars). I get it: These are all votes cast by individuals who are going to love what they love, and it makes perfect sense that if a costume designer intends to vote for Marty Supreme in best picture, they’ll probably vote for it in their own category, too. But even as I can’t come up with many nominees that I would kick out in favor of an outlier from a film that wasn’t nominated, I can’t help but wish that the boundaries of awards season weren’t starting to feel smaller and smaller.
Now that I’ve decamped from that soapbox, let me focus on the positive: We have a fantastic lineup of Oscar nominees this year and plenty of suspense to bring us through the final weeks of the race. Following up on part one from earlier this week, here are five more Oscar races that, to me, remain pretty competitive — and in some cases feel truly wide open. I also get into a few of these races, as well as the BAFTA nominees, on the Prestige Junkie After Party episode, coming this Friday, with my colleague Christopher Rosen and returning guest Joyce Eng. So, as always, if you want an even deeper dive into awards season, become an After Party subscriber today.
1. International Feature
The Secret Agent
It Was Just an Accident
Sentimental Value
Sirāt
The Voice of Hind Rajab
I had assumed for months that this award was already earmarked for Palme d’Or winner It Was Just an Accident, the most universally acclaimed of Neon’s many best international feature contenders (the studio has four of the five nominees here, but also carried No Other Choice through the season, before it missed here). But with the Jafar Panahi film failing to land in best picture or best director, while Neon’s The Secret Agent (Brazil) and Sentimental Value (Norway) made it into one (The Secret Agent) or both (Sentimental Value), as well as in best international feature, it seems safe to say the balance of power has shifted.
This is the second year in a row with two international feature nominees that are also nominated for best picture, thrilling evidence of just how much more open the Oscars have become to films from around the world. (Since Roma broke through with nominations for best picture and best international feature in 2019, seven of the last eight years have included at least one international feature nominee in the best picture field.) Unlike last year, though, when the scandal-plagued Emilia Pérez lost in this category to Brazil’s I’m Still Here, there’s not an obvious winner. Sentimental Value is powered by a whopping nine Oscar nominations, but The Secret Agent has four of its own, with star Wagner Moura (a best actor nominee) and director Kleber Mendonça Filho campaigning tirelessly on its behalf. Sentimental Value is probably still the favorite, but I’d bet by a pretty small margin.
2. Sound
F1
Frankenstein
One Battle After Another
Sinners
Sirāt
The winners in this category over the past five years will tell you a lot about just how wide a range of films get honored here. Right alongside more traditional blockbusters like Top Gun: Maverick and two Dune films, the sound Oscar has also gone to the indies The Sound of Metal and The Zone of Interest, which used sound design so creatively that even novices could pick up on it. That makes me wonder about the odds here for something like the Spanish film Sirāt, which creates a soundscape of desert noises and techno music that builds almost unbearable dread even before you know that’s where the story is taking you.
The likelier choices are, again, probably among the frontrunners: Sinners and One Battle After Another, both of which use sound in ingenious ways. Then again… there must be many Academy members across branches who admire how that blockbuster uses its crafts, including sound? How else can you explain that best picture nomination? It feels like voters could go many directions here, and as with many of the crafts categories, a Sinners sound win early in the night could suggest a very major sweep ahead.
3. Production Design
Frankenstein: Tamara Deverell, Shane Vieau
Hamnet: Fiona Crombie, Alice Felton
Marty Supreme: Jack Fisk, Adam Willis
One Battle After Another: Florencia Martin, Anthony Carlino
Sinners: Hannah Beachler, Monique Champagne
At the risk of repeating myself, the question here is again, “Is it a Sinners sweep?” Oscar winner Hannah Beachler led a team that created from scratch the unforgettable juke joint at the center of the film, in addition to the minutely detailed train station, general store, forest shack and other indelible locations. But the world of Frankenstein has its own grand wonders; Hamnet pulled off a note-perfect rebuild of Shakespeare’s Globe Theater, one of the most famous locations in the world; the winding halls of Sensei Carlos’ apartment building in One Battle After Another just feel like a place we might have been to at one time or another.
Then there’s Jack Fisk, the legendary production designer with a great “he’s due” narrative for Marty Supreme. Fisk is now a four-time nominee — with previous nominations coming for There Will Be Blood, The Revenant and Killers of the Flower Moon — and he’s worked with icons like Terrence Malick, David Lynch, Martin Scorsese and Paul Thomas Anderson throughout his decades-long career. His exceptional work recreating 1950s New York and Japan in Marty Supreme could get him over the hump, but frontrunners Sinners and One Battle After Another make for formidable competition.
4. Editing
F1, Stephen Mirrione
Marty Supreme, Ronald Bronstein, Josh Safdie
One Battle After Another, Andy Jurgensen
Sentimental Value, Olivier Bugge Coutté
Sinners, Michael P. Shawver
With the exception of the action-heavy F1, this list of nominees is all the nomination leaders, which might mean the obvious favorite is, once again, Sinners. But if One Battle After Another is still on its way to a best picture victory, this would be a spot to realize it early on during the Oscar ceremony. Then again, what if everybody loves the kinetic ping pong sequences of Marty Supreme or the elegant flashbacks of Sentimental Value? I know I sure do!
5. Casting
Hamnet, Nina Gold
Marty Supreme, Jennifer Venditti
One Battle After Another, Cassandra Kulukundis
The Secret Agent, Gabriel Domingues
Sinners, Francine Maisler
It was only casting directors who picked the nominees for the first-ever casting Oscar, so this list includes not just famous actors doing great work but also ensembles built with care and craft. When this category goes to the entire Academy, though, will voters default to simply picking the ensemble they like best? That could give the edge, once again, to either Sinners or One Battle After Another, which balance A-list movie stars and brand-new faces to build casts with unbelievably rich texture. But I also wonder if a revered veteran like Nina Gold, who cast the smaller but pitch-perfect ensemble for Hamnet, might have more of an edge than people realize. From John Adams, Game of Thrones, The Crown and Baby Reindeer on television (she won Emmys for all of those projects) to films including Conclave, Wonka, multiple Star Wars movies and The King’s Speech, how many members of the Academy’s massive actors branch do you think haven’t worked with Gold at some point? For this brand-new Oscar category, I really don’t think we can make any assumptions about how it will turn out.