Battle for NBC’s Soul: Dick Wolf vs. the NBA (Final Score Inside)
I crunch numbers on 30 Rock’s $2.45B sports gamble and Wolf’s TV empire — and call a winner in the scripted-sports showdown
I cover TV from L.A. I wrote about the 10 showrunners who define the TV market now, the Amazon TV mess as Peter Friedlander takes over, and Vince Gilligan’s overall renewal with Sony TV. Email me at lesley.goldberg@theankler.com
Will the NBA be a slam-dunk — or huge brick — for NBC?
That’s the $2.45 billion (annual!) question that NBC Sports executives will see answered once NBCUniversal’s 11-year rights deal with the NBA officially tips off on Oct. 21.
Under the deal, formally announced in late July, NBC and its streaming counterpart, Peacock, will distribute as many as 100 regular-season NBA games. Peacock will have doubleheaders every Monday during the regular season, with the broadcast network also scoring a pair of games on Tuesdays as well as one on Sundays when its coverage of the NFL concludes come February.
All told, that’s at least three hours of NBC’s primetime schedule that are being handed over from the entertainment division — which programs scripted hits like Law & Order: SVU — and into the hands of the sports guys.
“If you have the NFL, the Olympics and you have the NBA, you’re really a must-have for any future media state that we may live in,” NBC Sports president Rick Cordella tells me. “We’re pretty excited about the deal and can’t wait for it to start next week.”
With fewer hours for scripted — NBC in May canceled five shows that filled four hours of its primetime lineup — it raises the question: Is the network’s $2.45 billion-a-year investment in the NBA better business than greenlighting another procedural (or three) from the man who already produces more scripted hours for NBC than anyone else, Dick Wolf?
The answer, as you might figure, requires a lot of math — and comes with as many variables and hot takes as any LeBron vs. Jordan GOAT debate.
Today, I’ll dig into the numbers and give you the answer, along with:
How the costs to make a season of a Wolf show stack up against the billions per season for the NBA deal
Why one knowledgeable source tells me the NBA deal is “not even close to profitable” for NBCU
The big boost in advertising for NBCU from the deal — including a significant portion of new ad buyers to NBC and Peacock
The estimated increase in ad revenue for the company from the NBA deal
NBA revenue opportunities (affiliate fees, etc.) vs. Wolf’s multiple revenue streams over time
The ratings race: How tumbling viewership impacts both sports and scripted, and which one comes out ahead for NBCU
One top dealmaker’s take on whether the NBA can “dress up this declining asset” that is NBC
And the big bet that basketball will bring young men to Peacock
Get ready for me to put NBA vs. Wolf through four quarters of one-on-one. For each quarter, I’ll declare a winner and then, in the ultimate buzzer beater, declare the true champ of TV.
Let’s get ready for the tip-off: