7 Genres Ready to Replace Superheroes
I evaluate performance of the contenders that could bring new life — and audiences — to the big screen
ESG offers data-driven analysis for paid subscribers every other Thursday. He recently covered the coming M&A blitz in a second Trump administration, made a cautious defense of WBD CEO David Zaslav and analyzed Tubi’s rise and why Hollywood should worry.
Back in May, after a disappointing month at the box office that saw IP-based properties The Fall Guy and Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga underperform, some argued that audiences were finally fed up with sequels and reboots. (Never mind that the one major original film released in May, IF, got off to a sluggish start.) I argued at the time that IP would still save the box office, which, based on the folks who disagreed with me, was a controversial take.
But as we’ve seen, IP has indeed turned out to be the 2024 box office’s salvation:
But one comment in response to my piece stuck with me: If IP is so big, why don’t you tell us how to find the next big IP hit?
Not only is this a good question, but it’s an urgent one: The most reliable genre of the 2010s — superhero films — has sputtered a bit recently (see: Joker: Folie à Deux, but more importantly DC’s struggles in 2023). So as dangerous as it may be . . . I’m going to hazard some guesses at what could come next. (I’m also focused on theaters today, as television has a different set of genre winners.)
As Hollywood looks for the next genre to replace superheroes, it has big boots to fill. Remember, 13 superhero flicks grossed more than $1B in the 2010s, and they had a well-above-average hit rate. Can one genre replace all that?
Although there isn’t a simple “data” solution to this problem — if there were, the studios would already know it! — theatrical box office numbers and some streaming data, in particular, can provide some insights.
In this article, you’ll learn:
Seven genres or sources of IP with potential
Nine more outlier ideas that could surprise Hollywood
The high-risk, high-reward nature of science fiction
Why video games present such a high bar for adaptation
The limited depth of desirable fantasy franchises
The state of romantasy
Where kids’ animated movies and adult R-rated action fit into the mix
The three genres I’d bet on for the future
