Shonda vs. Ryan: Who's Worth It
There was once a clear winner between Netflix's nine-figure investments. Then came 'Dahmer'
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Back in April, I first wrote about Netflix’s two richest overall deals. (After those two deals, Warner Bros. TV extended Greg Berlanti to a $400 million deal.) In that first competitive look at the hit:flop ratio between titanic talents Shonda Rhimesand Ryan Murphy, Rhimes, awash in Bridgerton’s success and Inventing Anna, was at that point the hands-down winner in streaming ROI (return on investment).
But I included this note near the end:
One caveat: Richard Rushfield told me there’s great buzz for Ryan Murphy’s upcoming Jeffrey Dahmer show, which feels a bit more like a return to (genre) form for Murphy. So he could rebound somewhat, though he likely can’t catch Shonda. Her lead is too big.
What a difference half a year can make!
(The other lesson? Richard is incredibly plugged in. The other other lesson? Be careful making predictions!)
This is a hit-driven business and one hit, as we always say at The Ankler, can turn around a mediocre track record. And that’s what Murphy delivered with the release of Dahmer and The Watcher, released on September 21 and October 13 respectively.
So the question is: did Murphy’s last two Netflix hits (i.e., his only two Netflix hits) change who is winning the battle for top mega-producer? In this current cutbacks climate where mega deals appear to be out of favor, let’s see what the data says tells us about big creator gambles. (To be clear, I am employing the idea of a competition between the two as a structure to analyze the value of these big deals — not because I am aware of any true rivalry. But who wants to be No. 2?).
Today I’ll…
Reveal which star producer actually has had more hours viewed for Netflix.
Determine which overall deal is a better return on investment.
Analyze whether big overall deals have a future in the cost-cutting streaming market.
And, as a bonus, calculate which show was watched more this fall, HBO’s House of the Dragon or Dahmer.
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