Sequel Math Comes for ‘Avatar’
James Cameron’s Disney blockbuster lags behind its predecessors as the studio’s ‘Zootopia 2’ is poised to wear the year-end crown
Not even James Cameron can defy gravity.
Cameron, the only filmmaker in history to have three movies gross more than $2 billion worldwide, hasn’t exactly hit hard times with Avatar: Fire and Ash. But it’s clear the Disney blockbuster, with $343 million earned in North America and $1.2 billion worldwide so far, is lagging significantly behind its predecessors.
“The old sequel math was that every installment, you lose about a third of your grosses,” Richard Rushfield says. “We’ve had these mega franchises that have defied that, but I feel like they’re defying gravity, to use a phrase in the air, and eventually gravity reasserts itself. Eventually, you stumble a bit.”
To this point, Avatar: Fire and Ash has earned about two-thirds of what Avatar: The Way of Water did through its first month, allowing for the possibility that another Disney title — Zootopia 2 — could end up as the studio’s top global earner from 2025.
“Kudos to Disney,” Sean McNulty says of the company’s success, noting the rewatch factor for Zootopia 2 remains extremely high based on its $10.1 million gross during its eighth weekend of release. “If you think KPop Demon Hunters has been on in your house for a long time, Zootopia 2 will probably be doing that in the second quarter of this year.”
Elsewhere in this episode: The Housemaid continues to clean up (as Richard notes, the death of Sydney Sweeney’s box office viability has been greatly exaggerated) and Primate takes down Greenland 2 among new releases.