Streaming Libraries: Next War in the Retention Economy
What current viewing data reveals around the key weapon in combating churn
ESG’s data-driven analysis for paid subscribers appears every other Thursday. He recently wrote about movies’ IP vs. originals showdown, 6 producers who didn’t live up to their hype in 2024, and explained how animation is making serious bank, almost no matter what.
When Richard Plepler ran HBO in the 2010s, inevitably he’d be asked about Game of Thrones, Silicon Valley, True Detective or whatever buzzy and new show had just popped up on the cable channel/streamer. The media’s incentive is to chase virality-thirsty takes on what’s new and make bold pronouncements. Typically, networks and streamers want to talk about the new thing too — because they usually just spent a lot of money on it!
But whenever Plepler got this question, he’d frequently take that moment to remind everyone of the often-overlooked truth of the business. “Now, there is something we haven’t talked about, which I think is important to remember . . . we have the wonderful blessing of having four Hollywood studios under license over the coming years,” he told a reporter in 2016. “Original programming gets so much attention and time in the conversation that I think it’s often obscured how big a role movies play in viewership.”
Plepler was right! So today let’s explore that iceberg below the surface — licensed library content — though our focus will be on television today. Plepler pegged HBO’s success, in part, to that acquired content driving more than 70 percent of viewing. With that in mind, take a moment and try to guess the percentage of acquired content that makes up the Nielsen weekly top ten charts, and I’ll reveal the answer below.
As a data guy who specializes in streaming ratings, folks often ask me to find unexpected takeaways in my ratings data set, as if I could find some secret formula about what customers like to watch and then tell the world. Unfortunately, data analysis doesn’t really work like that. The world is mostly what we think it is, should we choose to remember it, and data confirms it. Most of the time!
This especially applies to Hollywood, where blockbusters have ruled in theaters for decades, and procedurals and sitcoms still rule the small screen. (Today’s news offered yet another hilarious proof point: CBS is doing an FBI spinoff titled FBI: CIA.)
The surest way to lose the plot is to believe the hype that any anomaly represents a new normal. (This is why my last two Ankler columns have been a three-year look at theatrical data and a debunking of producers whose valuations swelled because they were supposed to herald in some new age.) To paraphrase Nate Silver, the true signal gets lost in the noise.
For example, way back in 2021, “everyone” believed that Squid Game’s success would mean we’d see a slew of foreign TV shows breaking into the top shows Americans streamed. Since then, do you know what the biggest U.S. foreign language show has been? That’s right: Squid Game’s second season. The Korean drama is a “one of one,” not a new trend.
Library content gets overlooked while everyone (else) tries (and fails) to be the first to call some new shift. There’s a lot we can understand — about the American viewer and where streamers will make their next investments — by diving into what’s working (and not) in the realm of acquired content.
In today’s issue, you’ll learn:
How much acquired content fuels total streaming viewing
The most popular licensed procedurals on streaming
Why having non-exclusive rights to a show makes sense
The animated stalwarts driving massive viewership for Hulu
What streamers are learning from networks
Where they still don’t get why these shows are so popular for them
How Paramount, NBCU and Max make their Netflix relationships work
The ghastly mistake AMC made in its Netflix licensing strategy