The Oscar Puzzle: What Pundits Agree On — and Where Chaos Reigns
Our Prestige Junkie pundits on the surprise ‘Frankenstein’ surge and the deceptive director race. Plus: An exclusive track from Nicholas Britell’s ‘Jay Kelly’ score
Happy Thursday to you all, but especially you Prestige Junkie After Party subscribers who joined me and Christopher Rosen last night for our Substack Live watch-along of Something’s Gotta Give, our tribute to the recently departed Diane Keaton. The 2003 Nancy Meyers classic wasn’t really considered “prestige” back in its day, despite that well-deserved best actress nomination for Keaton. But as Chris and I discussed during our livestream, it looks spectacular and is better written than 90 percent of what you see these days on film or TV. We truly did not know how good we had it. (If you missed the live stream, I’ll send it out tomorrow — but only to paid subscribers of Prestige Junkie After Party. Not one of those? Fix that now!)
Okay, fine, there is a lot of good stuff out there this Oscar-buzzy time of year, and today Chris has some behind-the-scenes insight on one of them, sharing an exclusive preview from Nicholas Britell’s score for Jay Kelly. After that, I’m going deep on the state of predictions over at Prestige Junkie pundits, where there’s a surprising consensus emerging in a few categories — and total chaos otherwise.
To start us off, though, take it away, Chris!
First Listen: The ‘Jay Kelly’ Score
Composer Nicholas Britell is only 45, but has already amassed a resume that belies his years: Oscar nominations for Moonlight, If Beale Street Could Talk and Don’t Look Up; an Emmy win and multiple nominations for Succession. He’s worked on two movies starring Emma Stone (Cruella and The Battle of the Sexes) and frequently collaborated with Barry Jenkins, Adam McKay and Jesse Armstrong. But Jay Kelly marked a lot of firsts for Britell: not just his first movie with Noah Baumbach, but the first time he played selections of the score live for the actors.
“I wrote music from talking to Noah and from thinking about the feelings he was looking for, and then actually recorded some of these pieces as string quintets,” Britell said last week at the Montclair Film Festival, where he was honored with the festival’s Composer Award. “I took the music and played it for the actors on set. I’ve never had that experience.”
Written and directed by Baumbach, Jay Kelly focuses on a world-famous actor named Jay Kelly (George Clooney), who begins to reevaluate his life after a chance encounter with a former friend from acting school (Billy Crudup). Faced with an existential crisis, Jay heads to Italy for a tribute alongside his long-time manager, Ron (Adam Sandler), and takes stock of his life. Throughout their journey, Britell’s string-heavy musical arrangements enhance the emotion, something you can hear below in the exclusive bonus track, “Cinema Theme.”
Listen: Cinema Theme by Nicholas Britell from Jay Kelly
“When Noah told me about Jay Kelly, he said his vision for the score in particular was that he wanted the music to have its own voice in the movie and to be a partner with the film itself,” Britell said. Keep an eye out for more here from the composer in the coming weeks; Jay Kelly is out in select theaters on Nov. 14, and the score album will arrive this fall. — Christopher Rosen
The Life of an Oscar Pundit
Thanks, Chris! When I got home from the Middleburg Film Festival last weekend, one of the first things I did was log in to my Prestige Junkie pundits account and add Frankenstein to my predicted best picture lineup. The film played very well at the festival, with many people expressing their love for it to me, unprompted. Its limited theatrical release last week prompted a wave of reviews far more positive than its mixed reception at the Venice and Telluride Film Festivals. In a year where Netflix has had a lot of big-name contenders but no clear favorite, Guillermo del Toro’s Frankenstein suddenly seems to be at the top of the streamer’s heap.
To make room for Frankenstein, I chose to bump out Jay Kelly (sorry, Nicholas!), and I don’t feel great about it. Even though Jay Kelly is now probably Netflix’s second-biggest contender, the Noah Baumbach film really improved for me on my second viewing at Middleburg, and with stars George Clooney and Adam Sandler fairly visible on the campaign trail right now, it seems to have the engine to push itself forward. The more logical Netflix movie to ditch probably would have been Train Dreams, but I’m already significantly invested in that movie’s success, and I’m not giving up now. So now my page has a best picture lineup that I am second-guessing at every turn. Welcome to the life of a pundit!
I’m far from the only one obsessively adjusting my predictions list these days. Starting today and continuing next Thursday, I’ll be running through my current predictions in the eight top Oscar categories, and I’ve asked participants at Prestige Junkie pundits — too many to name individually, but folks like David Canfield, Richard Lawson, Sonny Bunch, Joanna Robinson, Shirley Li and more — to weigh in on their own internal debates. I’ve never been more persuaded of the old Hollywood maxim “nobody knows anything” — but still pretty convinced that guesses from these guys are better than the ones you’ll see anywhere else.
Best Picture Predictions
One of the most valuable parts of the pundits’ site is the percentages you can find on each film’s page, where you can learn that, say, 44 percent of us see Avatar: Fire and Ash landing in best picture (myself included), while only 20 percent are sticking by Bugonia in the same category (Chris is still down for this one). Right now, there are a remarkable seven films with percentages in the 80s and 90s: One Battle After Another, Sinners, Hamnet, Sentimental Value, Marty Supreme, Wicked: For Good, and It Was Just an Accident. Does that reflect a stable race with a lot of clear frontrunners, or a kind of groupthink? I’m inclined to think it’s the latter.
Whether it’s groupthink or just simply correct, the vast majority of pundits have One Battle After Another at the top of their best picture predictions — Jada Yuan is standing by Hamnet, Esther Zuckerman is leaning toward Sinners, Michael Schulman went for Bugonia and Joe Reid, who devoted his predictions to as many outlier contenders as possible, is throwing it all in for Train Dreams. I think Katie Walsh, a film critic for the Tribune News Service and Los Angeles Times, and the vice president of the Los Angeles Film Critics Association, best summed up my feelings about how much to go for One Battle in every category, not just best picture.
“I’m wondering how much I should over-index on One Battle After Another and Marty Supreme in all categories, but I really do love both movies and think they’re deserving,” she told me. “I’m also curious about how films we haven’t seen yet like Wicked: For Good and Avatar: Fire and Ash should factor in: are they a given in categories like best picture, best actress or best supporting actress (I’m fairly certain they will slot into their pre-ordained technical categories like VFX, costumes, etc).”
Best Director Predictions
There may still be room for debate about where One Battle has best picture locked up, but the conversation about best director is looking a lot more stable. Paul Thomas Anderson is at the top of virtually every pundit’s list — though shout out to Joe Reid for stumping for If I Had Legs I’d Kick You director Mary Bronstein, who absolutely deserves to be part of this conversation. (Revisit my discussion with Mary about her great film right here.)
As much as I’ve fiddled with my other picks, I haven’t actually changed my director lineup since Sept. 30, going with Anderson, Chloé Zhao (Hamnet), Ryan Coogler (Sinners), Jafar Panahi (It Was Just an Accident) and Joachim Trier (Sentimental Value). As it turns out, I’m not the only one high on them, as Chris can explain — with some reservations.
“Looking at the predictions, most, if not all, pundits have Anderson and Zhao represented, and the majority is sticking with Trier, Panahi and Coogler. Like you, that’s what I have, too,” Chris told me (because we talk about this stuff all day long!). “So now, I’m increasingly suspect this will be the eventual list. I already expect the Directors Guild list to be wildly different — particularly because that group is typically more mainstream than the Oscars. (Save room for Jon M. Chu, Yorgos Lanthimos and/or del Toro?) What if that carries over to the Oscars, too? I’ve been burned so many times by the directors’ branch to feel comfortable with our expectations.”
Best Actress Predictions
For as much as this is being derided as a weak year for lead actresses, I’m having a hell of a time settling on just five favorites here. Like nearly everyone else, I’ve got Jessie Buckley in the top spot, and a second viewing of Hamnet persuaded me even further that she’ll be extremely hard to beat. But there’s almost no consensus about who goes in second place behind her, and basically no two pundit lists look the same.
I covered the field's general outline in my newsletter last week, including 14 actresses with a reasonable shot at nomination. Nearly all of them are represented on the pundits page, with a bit more consensus around Chase Infiniti (One Battle After Another), Cynthia Erivo (Wicked: For Good) and Renate Reinsve (Sentimental Value). As I wrote this paragraph, I made room on my list for Sydney Sweeney, who delivers a major movie breakthrough performance in Christy, about boxer Christy Martin. It’s the kind of performance that Academy voters have historically embraced (think Margot Robbie in I, Tonya or Hilary Swank in Million Dollar Baby). But somehow, I couldn’t figure out how to also include Laura Dern, an Oscar winner who is absolutely terrific in Is This Thing On? That’s Bradley Cooper’s new relationship drama that snuck up on me and Chris in recent weeks and could be a huge contender for Searchlight Pictures hiding in underdog’s clothing. Ask me about these best actress picks next week, however, and I’ll probably have changed my mind again. Anybody who is still calling this a weak field is really just not paying attention.
Best Actor Predictions
Meanwhile, I don’t think I’ve heard anyone accuse best actor of being a weak field, and now that there’s universal agreement on the top two contenders, it will be a fascinating derby to see who fills in the rest. I do literally mean universal: 100 percent of our pundits predicting the category have both Timothée Chalamet (Marty Supreme) and Leonardo DiCaprio (One Battle After Another) on their lineups, promising a totally fascinating showdown between Gen X and Gen Z icons. I’ve got Chalamet in my top spot right now, but I’m also rooting for a well-deserved second Oscar for DiCaprio. I’ll probably be changing my mind about how this goes until the very end, too.
Sinners star Michael B. Jordan is in a pretty compelling third position, with 70 percent of pundits predicting the category listing him, but after that, the list explodes. A lot of people are high on The Secret Agent star Wagner Moura, presumably on the power of his extensive Hollywood career and the seeming strength of voters from his native Brazil, given the surprising Oscar performance of last year’s I’m Still Here. Moura is on 70 percent of pundit lists right now, with a lot of major stars — Jeremy Allen White (Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere), Dwayne Johnson (The Smashing Machine), George Clooney (Jay Kelly) and Jesse Plemons (Bugonia) — bunched up behind him.
This has me thinking a lot about the 2022 best actor race, when there was so much attention around Brendan Fraser for The Whale, Colin Farrell for The Banshees of Inishirin and Austin Butler for Elvis that it left room for two “surprise” nominees in Bill Nighy (Living) and Paul Mescal (Aftersun). It could mean that a nomination is within reach for just about anyone — even my guy Joel Edgerton for Train Dreams — and a lot of best actor hopefuls may be on the campaign trail to prove it in the coming months.