Movie Musicals: Myths, Money and Mistakes
'Wonka', 'Color Purple' can't hide a historic revenue ceiling on song-and-dance
As Richard often jokes, in Hollywood media “two makes a trend”, so if you have two movies about volcanos exploding, you can write a trend piece. (I’ll not date myself with a “Dante’s Inferno versus Volcano 1997 showdown” reference.) Hyper-charged by social and digital media’s quest for virality in the 2010s, nowadays we take it a step further. Not only do “two things make a trend”, but that trend is hyped up to 11, or subzero at a -1. Did two Disney films in a row underperform? Then Disney is trash! Did two concert films succeed? Then concert films will save the theatrical industry! Crushing. It.
We never have any middle ground.
Why bring this up? Because I’m worried we’re about to make that mistake with this winter’s “hot” genre: musicals. If you’re a true OG Ankler subscriber, you may remember in one of my first articles for The Ankler, streaming musicals were my “miss of the year” two years ago:
But December 2023 seemed to prove me wrong. Wonka — as I not too bravely predicted back in December — won the month! Meanwhile, The Color Purple had the second biggest opening day for a Christmas film ever. (My theater was totally sold out!) Plus, Mean Girls (the musical coming out this weekend) is tracking for $20-30 million in its opening weekend, meaning it could best Disney’s Wish!
Was I wrong about musicals back in 2021? Not really. Indeed, the most interesting thing about the success of musicals in December is the fact the studios have barely advertised these movies as musicals. If you watch a trailer for Wonka, The Color Purple or Mean Girls, nary a song is to be found.
So we have a bit of a muddle then: musicals seem to be doing well at the theaters, but studios hid the detail that they were musicals from audiences. That gives us a prime opportunity to look again at this genre. How have musicals performed at theaters? And streaming? And what comes next?
In this article I will…
Show where musicals rank when compared with other genres.
How musicals perform on streaming.
The revenue ceiling of musicals.
How many musicals were in the top-performing films of the last two years.
What musical I think could win the box office in 2024