Hollywood’s Last Stand: 6 Fronts That Make or Break 2026
On the anniversary of the fires, we are a phoenix ready to rise if we mobilize
Tomorrow! Rushfield Lunch with Marc Platt
Before I get into today’s column, join me tomorrow on my weekly live video conversation show, where I’ll welcome one of Hollywood’s last truly legendary producers: Marc Platt. A veteran of stage and screen, with credits in Hollywood that run the gamut from all-time comedy favorites (Legally Blonde), to cult classics (Drive, Scott Pilgrim vs. the World) to his current project, guiding the two-part Wicked musical — which he raised from infancy having produced it first for the stage and then through a 20-year journey to the big screen. We’ll talk about Wicked: For Good and Platt’s path through this business, plus what lies ahead for producers in this new world. Join us and bring your questions, only on Substack Live.
Headlines can create narrative fait accompli, a momentum as seductive as a 2 a.m. doomscroll.
Here are just a few recent headlines:
Today, on the eve of the anniversary of the terrible L.A. fires, a disaster that kicked a dog while it was down, let’s remember that Hollywood is about reinvention. There’s always a phoenix here, somewhere, waiting to rise.
But it’s getting harder. Faster.
Last year in particular kicked off some trends that reminded me of the old saw: How did you go broke? Slowly… then all at once. It feels like we’re getting into the “all at once” part of that.
Which is why 2026 on many fronts looks to me like it’s just short of do-or-die. It’s do-or-keep-the-hospice-care-staff-on-speed-dial. There is probably (but not certainly) time to turn many things around.
But a year from now, if things continue on their current course, that probably won’t be the case on a lot of fronts.
That’s why it feels appropriate to call this year The Last Stand.
So here are six fronts on which 2026 might mark the beginning of an industry comeback — or the final approach into the death spiral.
The choice is yours, Hollywood leaders.
I. Consolidation Nation: Which Studios Remain
This is, of course, the big domino looming over the whole board.
If we have one less studio — one less buyer, one less distributor — that really threatens to tip the balance of everything from living wages to the survival of theaters into dangerous territory (more on both below). But for all the people who want to believe that Netflix would be a good steward of the Warner Bros. legacy, point to an instance in the last 30 years where mergers led to more creativity, more options for creators and workers and more choices for consumers?
And by year’s end, consolidation may not just be a question of who gets Warners, but there might well be other combinations on the table. Anything that eliminates yet another studio from the landscape will mean even worse things for this industry.
Related:
And let us never forget, as we talk about this, that this entire consolidation wave — whatever it turns out to be — is only possible thanks to an utterly corrupt oversight system brought on by this president. If Warner Bros. or any other studio goes away, the two studios lost in modern times will both have disappeared under split Trump administrations.
Or, does public backlash against merger mania, and against the tech world in particular, reach such a fever pitch that even under Trump, these deals become impossible? If the Democrats find some backbone on this, if they follow the lead of people like Jane Fonda, there’s a significant cluster of anti-tech Republicans ready to join in the pushback, and perhaps the world finds Donald Trump and Brendan Carr aren’t the only ones who have a say in this.
Joined by populist fervor, state attorneys general might get into the act, and long discovery processes might start to make the cost of these deals higher in unanticipated ways… as pristine brands take incoming fire. Elected officials across the political spectrum, including Elizabeth Warren and Mike Lee, are already railing against the merger.
In this mid-term year, fevers will be running high. Consolidation might be the end of us… or 2026 might be the year that a decade of merger talk finally hits a wall.
II. Movie Theaters and the Pipeline
Theaters are the most endangered piece on the board right now. Theater owners are already reeling from the studios’ reduction in supply. We can endlessly speculate what Ted Sarandos’ plan will be if and when he finally takes over Warner Bros., but no one actually knows but Ted.
Still, here’s my wild guess: