Hollywood Money Gushed from the Gulf. Then Came War
Stalled projects, a ‘carefully constructed’ industry at risk — and even the biggest merger in entertainment industry history under threat
I cover global TV and film from London. I wrote about the antitrust challenges for Paramount-WB in Europe, Tubi U.K.’s success with Gen Z and Disney’s scramble to catch up with Netflix in global TV. I’m manori@theankler.com
With production at a standstill across the Gulf, cinemas shuttered or operating at reduced capacity, and high-profile films relocating for safety, a growing fear is taking hold in Hollywood: Its Middle East strategy may be unraveling — along with the billions that came with it.
As the U.S. and Israel’s war in Iran rounds out its third week — continuing to rage through Eid al-Fitr and the close of Ramadan on March 20 — the region’s meticulously planned soft power drive built around film and TV is taking a back seat. The expanding theater of war has now directly impacted at least 13 countries in what one source calls a “highly flammable” region.
“Business within the Gulf will slow down in the next six to nine months, and that is what it is,” says one producer also involved in venture investing between North America and the Middle East. “We’re going to keep doing our jobs, but we’re also going to probably pursue other international areas until we get more clarity.”
The stakes are significant. In the last two years alone, Gulf money has propped up some of the biggest deals in entertainment:
Saudi’s Public Investment Fund backed the $55 billion acquisition of Electronic Arts — until recently the largest leveraged buyout in history
Saudi-backed MBC Group led the $1 billion backing for ex-Lionsgate exec Erik Feig’s Arena SNK Studios, launched in October
Sovereign wealth funds from Saudi, Abu Dhabi and Qatar are backing Paramount Skydance’s debt-burdened $111 billion bid for Warner Bros. Discovery Paramount
A Qatari investor is part of a bid by Department M (founded in 2024 by former AGBO exec Mike Larocca and former New Regency president Michael Schaefer) to buy a sizable stake in Sentimental Value distributor Neon
Now, with oil prices softening and governments reassessing spending priorities, insiders expect a shift inward.
“Would the Electronic Arts deal happen today? That same deal at the same amount? I doubt it,” says Mazen Hayek, a longtime MBC spokesperson turned Dubai-based media consultant. “Security and defense come first.”
He adds, “I look at the pledged amounts of $2 trillion from Gulf countries in the U.S. tech companies’ AI and data centers. Are these going to be honored, or are they going to have to buy ammunition and new Iron Domes? Would you spend on things that can wait, or would you spend on priorities?”
I spoke with U.S. and Middle East-based producers, distributors, lawyers and investors to unpack the war’s impact on the industry and deals near and far term.
Today, I break down:
Where dealmaking goes next, and why smaller, more “pragmatic” partnerships may replace blockbuster bets
What happens to money already in big deals now
Which productions are already relocating, and the logistics nightmares underway
The war’s damage to Gulf nations’ “carefully constructed image” as production partners, investors and tax havens
Why Cannes has become a key battleground for MENA media — and why this year will look very different
What rising security risks and anti-American sentiment mean for box office in the region — and the surprise Oscar movie that’s a hit
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