First Thoughts About Emmy Contenders
An early look at the actors of 'Severance' and 'The White Lotus'. Plus, Conan's sequel, and Soderbergh's thrilling return
Today I’m easing into covering the Emmy race with a look at how two of the hottest shows of the moment will go head-to-head for drama acting honors — and how some worthy contenders, especially in the supporting categories, will inevitably get left behind.
But first, a few odds and ends from the world of film, starting with a hearty congratulations to both Conan O’Brien, who will return as the host of next year’s Oscars, and the film Academy, which made the wise decision to re-sign O’Brien as early as possible. I can’t remember an Oscar host ever being announced this early — even when Jimmy Kimmel did back-to-back stints in 2017 and 2018, his return wasn’t announced until May. Executive producers Raj Kapoor and Katy Mullan, whom I spoke to in the frantic run-up to the show, will also return in addition to O’Brien’s longtime collaborators Jeff Ross and Mike Sweeney. It all speaks to an Academy that’s very clear on what it wants, and what seems to work well for ratings on ABC as well.
Said O’Brien of his return, “The only reason I’m hosting the Oscars next year is that I want to hear Adrien Brody finish his speech.”
Last week on his Conan O’Brien Needs a Friend podcast, O’Brien revealed his original idea for opening this year’s show, which is very validating for those of us who just assumed we’d see O’Brien painted as green as Cynthia Erivo’s Wicked character, Elphaba.
“It starts with me, and I’m in Wicked and I’m all green, finishing ‘Defying Gravity’ or one of those songs,” he says, claiming he wanted to pay tribute to all of the year’s nominees the way Billy Crystal once did. “You cut to the next thing, which is Gladiator II and ‘clang, clang, clang’ with swords, and you see that I’m a gladiator but then you notice that I’m still green. And then you go on to Conclave and you see people voting with their ballots and one of the hands is still green.”
The joke, he explained, “was that the dye wouldn’t come off and we had to shoot it in one day.”
Much as I loved/was grossed out by watching him climb out of Demi Moore’s back in The Substance, I’d do just about anything to see this even longer riff on the year’s nominees. Then again, given how long the ceremony wound up running, my local ABC affiliate might disagree with me. Will the Disney powers that be let O’Brien run even longer next year, now that he’s a proven hit? Here’s hoping.
Soderbergh’s Brand New Bag
Steven Soderbergh has made a whopping 26 feature films (and multiple TV series!) since winning the best director Oscar for Traffic in 2001 — beating out, among other directors, himself, since he was also nominated that year for Erin Brockovich. Aside from that time in the late 2000s when he kept threatening to retire, Soderbergh has been one of our most reliably prolific directors, with two features in theaters this year alone.
The January release Presence, a nifty haunted house story filmed from the perspective of the ghost, was a fun genre experiment that showcased Soderbergh’s unceasing curiosity about how to use the camera in new ways. But Black Bag, which opened in theaters this weekend, is a glowing return to the crackerjack thrillers Soderbergh has made throughout his career, from Out of Sight to the Covid-era releases Kimi and No Sudden Move.
Soderbergh has been frank in interviews that Focus Features is taking a gamble by backing the $50 million-budgeted drama aimed at adults, “the kind of movie that most studios are backing away from,” he told The Wrap. “This is supposed to be a no man’s land.” But fresh off of Conclave, which crossed the $100 million mark worldwide (and scored eight Oscar nominations along the way), this is exactly the kind of gamble Focus ought to be taking. I saw Black Bag with a paying crowd in the middle of a weekday and relished the sound of the audience gasping at the reveals of plot twists and laughing at some of Soderbergh’s particularly bold edits.
Even as we ramp up into Emmy season, and a lot of really great stuff starts to premiere on television, it’s worth remembering that prestige TV — while it boasts many powerhouse original voices — first earned that prestige label by importing the cinematic innovations of auteurs like Soderbegh to the small screen.
Now, Let’s Talk about TV
On the podcast next week I’ll have my proper kick-off to Emmy season, which believe it or not is very much upon us. We’re planning our big Series Business Live event in Los Angeles on April 4, where Elaine Low and I will be talking to the talent — onscreen and off — behind the season’s hottest shows. I’ll have tons of conversations on the podcast and in this newsletter with the people behind the biggest Emmy contenders, and you can certainly look out for more live events as well.
Emmy nomination voting doesn’t start until June 12, and there are a lot of major shows left to premiere between now and then, from returning champs like The Last of Us and Andor to intriguing newcomers like Seth Rogen’s Apple comedy The Studio and Netflix’s new take on Judy Blume’s Forever.
But if your friends were busy talking about new episodes of TV over the weekend, you could be forgiven for thinking the best drama series race might already be down to two shows. Between the Thursday night drops of new episodes of Severance, which airs its season finale this week, and the Sunday night appointment viewing for The White Lotus, it’s been a booming time for twisty dramas, sparking endless Reddit debates and some truly excellent memes. If you don’t spend part of each week shaking your fist at Mike White or Dan Erickson for toying with your emotions, are you even watching television?
Though Slow Horses is the only show from last year’s best drama lineup that is eligible again this year, there are a lot of potent contenders from earlier years back in the mix. In addition to Severance and The White Lotus, previous nominees Andor, The Boys, The Handmaid’s Tale, House of the Dragon, The Last of Us, Squid Game and Yellowjackets are all hoping to return to the category.
Eventually I’ll get to considering the drama landscape as a whole, but with Severance and The White Lotus currently top of everyone’s mind, let’s pretend it’s just a head-to-head match. What would the acting races look like if these two juggernauts were facing off at this year’s Emmys — and who might prevail?
Guest in Show
The surprise arrival of Sam Rockwell on last night’s episode of The White Lotus ought to tell you that, even though the guest actor categories are relegated to an entirely different night than the Emmys telecast, they can feature some of the worthiest winners.
Neither The White Lotus nor the Severance awards teams would confirm for me which actors will contend in which category, for spoiler reasons if nothing else. If Rockwell, for example, appears in all the remaining episodes of the season, he’ll cross the 50 percent threshold to be eligible in supporting; if not, he’ll be a guest. So I’ll be waiting eagerly with the rest of you to see how that shakes out.
There are two more actors who have yet to check in to the White Lotus and could qualify as guests. Scott Glenn, glimpsed thus far only in photographs, will likely eventually appear in person as the mysterious Jim Hollinger. And Nicholas Duvernay, who appears in the episode 1 flash-forward as the son of Natasha Rothwell’s Belinda, will make his entrance before too long. Either might be eligible for a nod to pad the show’s inevitably huge nomination count.
Despite the tight confines of the Lumon offices on Severance, there have been a lot of starry guest appearances this season. Gwendoline Christie made a big impact as a goat-herding Lumon employee in episode 3, likewise John Noble as the jealous husband of Christopher Walken’s Burt in episode 6. I was amazed by how big an impact James LeGros made in his scenes opposite Patricia Arquette in the eighth episode, which also included a stellar appearance from absolute legend Jane Alexander.
Leading Indicators
The good news for Severance is that the entire White Lotus cast has traditionally competed in the supporting categories, which means lead stars Adam Scott and Britt Lower would have a bit less competition. Scott was nominated for the show’s first season but Lower wasn’t; given the prominent role of her character, Helly, this season, though, that seems sure to change.
They’ll face plenty of competition from other shows, of course, from what’s looking like a Kathy Bates steamroller for the Matlock reboot to TV veterans like Noah Wyle, Jon Hamm and Sterling K. Brown in the actor category. We’ll dig into that sometime later, I promise.
Where the Rubber Hits the Road
Here, to be a little dramatic about it, is where the bloodbath begins. For its first season Severance scored nominations for John Turturro, Arquette and Walken, but this season has been an even bigger showcase for supporting players like Zach Cherry, Tramell Tillman and Dichen Lachman. I’d even make the case for 18-year-old newcomer Sarah Bock as the spooky child employee Ms. Huang, but I understand that there might be room for everyone.
That’s because The White Lotus will be coming in hot with, by my estimate, at least 12 actors who could reasonably score nominations across both categories. Among the actors you’ve got Jason Isaacs, Walton Goggins, Jon Gries returning as the shady Greg/Gary, and Sam Nivola and Patrick Schwarzenegger all with incredible arcs — not to mention a major watercooler moment from the latter two in last night’s episode with their jaw-dropping kiss. There’s also a breakout performance from Thai actor Tayme Thapthimthong as Gaitok.
As often happens on The White Lotus, the actresses give you even more to choose from. Parker Posey may be the closest this season has to a Jennifer Coolidge-level breakout, but how could you nominate her and not Sarah Catherine Hook as her skeptical daughter? What about the trio of friends played by Michelle Monaghan, Leslie Bibb and Carrie Coon — can you really just choose one? Aimee Lou Wood and Natasha Rothwell — the only one in the bunch who’s previously been nominated for The White Lotus — have been the heart and soul of the season thus far; how could anyone bear to leave one of them out?
The number of possible nominees in these categories shifts each year based on how many people are submitted (yes, Emmy rules are a real challenge sometimes), so we won’t know until June how many spots are available. But with all these standouts — not to mention the vast supporting cast of The Pitt or beloved TV veterans like Allison Janney (The Diplomat) and Jeffrey Wright (The Last of Us) — I can safely predict that it won’t feel like enough.