ELVIS facing mixed tracking, big challenges at the Box Office this weekend
UNI sets release plan for Spielberg pic / CAA-ICM deal finally closing / Murdoch divorcing for 4th time
Mornin! This is Sean McNulty and hereās the Hollywood + Media news to know on THURSDAY June 23, 2022.
Where here is the GOT prequel poster for your dorm room this Fall š©. (thatās still a thing right? Please donāt tell me Iām that oldā¦)
AND: āBack to the Futureā is coming to BROADWAY in 2023. Donāt know where, donāt know who, donāt know when - Where weāre goingā¦ we donāt need details. #couldntresist
PLUS: A judge ruled Paul Haggis is to remain under house arrest in ITALY while the investigation into the alleged sexual assault continues.
ALSO: A Rest In Peace goes out to former NFL player and TV personality Tony Siragusa, who died at 55 years old yesterday. Cause of death not immediately available.
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š½ THE SILVER SCREEN
JUST 2 THINGS
UNI / AMBLIN will drop Spielbergās āThe Fablemansā in NY / LA theaters on Nov 11, and go wide over Thanksgiving. /THR
LIONSGATEās āHunger Gamesā prequel adds āEuphoriaā actress Hunter Schafer as āTigris Snowā, cousin and confidante to āCoriolanus Snowā (Tom Blythe). Hunter plays āJoeyā on āEuphoriaā. /Variety
Reading the tea leaves on the eve of āBaz Luhrmannās Elvisā
Ok I guess itās not the āeveā since the film is out tonight in āpreviewsā š (yeah we gotta get a better name for this newly widespread scam tactic used to goose Box Office #s).
But I thought it was worthwhile to set the stage WB is facing since:
A) A lot will likely be made about the Box Office results on Monday in terms of āadults coming back to movie theatersā (first hint: theyāve already been coming for 3 weeks to see āTop Gunā)
B) Itās another quiet day in HOLLYWOOD this week and we have a little time (was there a Fred Segal sale or something?)
THE COMPETITIVE LANDSCAPE
The film is tracking around ā$20+ Millionā according to DEADLINE, and ā$30 Millionā if you read VARIETY soā¦ yeah. Kinda feels like even the polling doesnāt knows where the $85 Million-budgeted pic is gonna land.
Itās very wide in 3900 theatersā¦ but - it runs 2hr 40mins which is going to limit potential Box Office returns no matter how you cut it.
Plus this is a dogfight not even Iceman would think was a good idea to enter (sorry, I have OG āTop Gunā on in the background while I write this - and still not exactly sure who these guys are fighting in the final battle or how they got to the Indian Ocean so fast):
āTop Gunā is likely to do at least another $30-35 Mil.
āJurassic Worldā probably another $30 Mil-ish
AND: The other new movie this weekend āThe Black Phoneā will take a big part of the younger demo and is tracking at $15-20 Mil itself.
PLUS: While a vastly different demoā¦ āLightyearā should still do around $25 Mil worth of revenue.
IN TERMS OF COMPS:
Yeah this is also tough - Bazās studio Box Office track record:
āRomeo + Julietā (1996): $11 Mil opening, $147 Mil global
āMoulin Rougeā (2001): $14 Mil opening, $180 Mil global
āAustraliaā (2008): $15 Mil opening, $215 Mil global
āThe Great Gatsbyā (2013): $50 Mil opening, $353 Mil global
Andā¦ thatās it. His last project was the NETFLIX flop āThe Get Downā in 2016.
So. Your (very bad) comp is a DiCaprio movie from 9 years ago I guess.
In terms of films released in this decadeā¦ āHouse of Gucciā may be the best and most recent comp - it did $14 Mil in November with the same duration, but was rated R. And Covid was a far different situation.
Or perhaps āWest Side Storyā which also had the āolder IPā thing, music factor, and a 2hr 36min duration and had aā¦ $10 Mil opening. But in the true throws of Omicron.
So. still not a lotta great comps.
OK, OKā¦ how about a PRO / CON list?
This always works.
PRO: āElvisā is arguably the most famous music IP in the world.
CON: Not to anyone under 35 years-old. Ok fine 40. Err anyone born 1980 onward.
PRO: It has one of the biggest movie stars of all time.
CON: Heās not playing Elvis, but rather is in a pretty unrecognizable supporting role with an accent thatā¦ kinda creeps me out (I always change the station when I hear him say āheās a forbidden fruitā in the radio ads). Iām sure itās fine in the context of the movie butā¦ in the marketing itās been a bit jarring.
PRO: Music biopics are on a run - āRocketmanā, āBohemian Rhapsodyā, āStraight Outta Comptonā etc (even if āRespectā didnāt take off last summer).
CON: These movies have little to do stylistically with āElvisā.
BOTTOM LINE:
Look Iād love to see this movie do well, and it could be a movie with legs this Summer with great word of mouth etc. even if this weekend isnāt great, Ie. āThe Greatest Showmanā of 2022 if you will.
Doesnāt change the fact that this weekend is very toughā¦ and Iām just not sure how many people are excited about an āElvisā movie. Granted - that could be a NYC bias and this could play very well / strongly overindex in some parts of the country to help the cause.
But as much as pundits donāt like to acknowledge this - the 18-34 crowd still goes to the movies, and itās hard to see this movie being a ā4 quadrantā picā¦ especially when itās up against a strong Horror pic in āThe Black Phoneā (horror tends to heavily draw 18-34 year olds).
HOWEVER:
The important thing to NOT take away from the weekend - if āBaz Luhrmannās Elvisā opens in 3rd (or 4th) and/or under $20 Million itās not because āmovies for adultsā are over, or that adults are not coming back to the movie theater (again - see āTop Gunā, like everyone over 35 did. and under for that matter).
There are a lot of very legit, specific factors above working against āElvisā that are far more likely to effect its verdict, the most pressing being an overcrowded marketplace.
ONE FOR THE ROAD: WB just released one finalā¦ final trailer for it last night that I actually think is the best spot theyāve done so far, really touting both the pedigree, scope and heart of the story. Granted, may be a little late.
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šŗ THE TV SET
JUST 2 THINGS
PEACOCK renews Craig Robinson show āKilling Itā for a Season 2. /Variety
Taylor Sheridan will direct PAR+ David Oyelowo ā1883: Bass Reevesā limited series first 2 episodes. /Deadline
IN THE HOLLYWOOD BUSINESS AFFAIRS
Another TURNER Networks exec out: SVP of Original Programming Adrienne OāRiain is departing. /Deadline
The CAA-ICM Merger is done and set to be announced by end of week. About 10 months after the initial news. /The Ankler
Variety asks whatās up with ADELEās Vegas residency whose 24 sold-out datesā¦ still have not been rescheduled as āabsolutelyā promised now 6 months ago, just as sheās about to play some huge concerts at Londonās Hyde Park.
Ok not business affairs per se, butā¦ kinda: Rupert Murdoch is splitting from Jerry Hall and thus getting divorced for the 4th time. āNext on Fox&Friendsā¦ā. š¤ /NY Times
š IN OTHER WORDSā¦
ā(a buyout) is always a reality, so we have to be wide-eyed about that.ā
- TED SARANDOS when asked about a sale in his CANNES Lions fest talk with Kara Swisher, where he doubled down on the ad-supported launch by end of yearā¦ but no new specifics on that.
š» THE MEDIA BIZ
JUST 2 THINGS
Here are the latest few details on that new journalism / news outlet thing (?) called SEMAFOR that former NY TIMES / BUZZFEED exec Ben Smith and BLOOMBERG NEWS head Justin Smith are building. /NY Times
Will start this Fall after raising $25 Million withā¦ a website and newsletters - Huh now where have I heard that concept before (although doing so with far less investor money to have to recoup).
MASTERCLASS lays off 20% of staff, roughly 120 people. Yup, due to economic trends. The company raised $225 Mil about a year ago, at a $2.75 Billion valuation. /Variety
MINIONS X THE OFFICE
Ok this does technically fall under Media Marketing strategy so Iām just putting this here for big props on this killer synergy idea. š UNI + PEACOCK Marketing
š¦ STOCK NOTES
It was a relatively quiet Wednesday.
š©āš» NEW TO WATCH:
PARAMOUNT+ āBeavis and Butt-Head Do the Universeā - PAR+ and the google-able linksā¦ not so much.
Plus 200 original remastered B&B-H episodes with original music videosĀ
ABC & ESPN NBA Draft at 8p
HBOMAX āMenudo: Forever Youngā docu - STREAM HERE
HBOMAX āThe Gordita Chroniclesā - STREAM HERE
FX ON HULU āThe Bearā - all episodes - STREAM HERE
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š„ TRAILER HOUSE
APPLE TV+ āFive Days at Memorialā limited series teaser - About the 5 days after Hurricane Katrina at a NOLA hospital that became cut off fromā¦ well pretty much everything. Promising teaser. PREMIERES FRI AUG 12
NAT GEO FILMS āThe Territoryā trailer - Docu on whats really going on and the battles being fought inside the communities living in BRAZILās AMAZON. IN THEATERS IN AUGUST 19
š§ PLAYING ME OFF
Feels fitting to go out getting ready forāElvisā tomorrow tonight - EMINEM teamed up with CEE LO for a track, āThe King & Iā
If you need some new tunes:
Email me anytime at seanmcnultynyc@gmail.com or connect here on LINKED IN.
-SEAN MCNULTY
@theseanmac on TWITTER
@TheWakeupNews on INSTAGRAM
Nice new profile picš Whoās your photographer?