Best Actress: The Case For & Against 14 Contenders
Past winners and noms abound, but for me there’s one frontrunner — and everyone else
I had been planning for weeks to assess this year’s best actress lineup for today, but after Diane Keaton’s death last weekend, the task felt especially timely. Keaton won the best actress Oscar in 1978 for Annie Hall. As I argued in our Substack Live conversation celebrating her career earlier this week, it’s basically a perfect Oscar win. Not only did Keaton set the template for the kooky, brilliant female lead in scores of rom-coms that would follow, but the character is so clearly based on her, even sharing her name. Keaton was not the writer or director of Annie Hall, but she was the character’s actual creator all the same.
Many of this year’s best actress contenders also played huge roles in bringing their characters to life, whether through longstanding collaborations with their directors or pushing the project forward as producers. All of them, I imagine, owe a debt of some kind to Keaton’s trailblazing career. If you want more on Keaton and her remarkable gifts, next week Christopher Rosen and I are planning another Prestige Junkie After Party live watchalong. At 6 p.m. PT on Wednesday, Oct. 22, we’ll hit play on Nancy Meyers’ Something’s Gotta Give, which earned Keaton her fourth and final Oscar nomination. Subscribe to After Party to join us — it will be open to both paid and unpaid subscribers, but only paid subscribers can watch the replay afterward. It will be a bittersweet but good time, I promise.
Today, as I did for the best actor field a few weeks ago, I’m running down what I see as all the major contenders in the best actress race, in general order of how likely I think they are to be nominated. As you can tell, some of my picks line up with the expectations of the Prestige Junkie pundits, and some don’t. That’s how it usually goes at this point in the Oscar race — especially for a field like this, where, aside from one assured sure thing, it’s wide open.
Before I jump to the analysis, one programming note: I’m heading to Virginia for the Middleburg Film Festival this weekend (if you see me, come say hi!), while several Team Ankler members — including Chris, Sean McNulty and Richard Rushfield — will host conversations at the Montclair Film Festival in New Jersey. On next week’s podcast (subscribe here to listen), Chris and I will compare notes on our regional festival experiences and find out which of these titles are playing best with these smaller, more rarefied crowds. Stay tuned!
1. Jessie Buckley, Hamnet
Age: 35
Previous nominations: 1 (best supporting actress for The Lost Daughter, 2022)
Previous wins: 0
The case for her: The waves of praise for Hamnet at the Telluride and Toronto film festivals came for many different aspects of Chloé Zhao’s film, from its heartbreaking story of parental love and loss to its assured filmmaking. Still, just about everyone reserved their highest acclaim for Jessie Buckley’s lead performance as Agnes, the wife of William Shakespeare (Paul Mescal), who grieves the death of her son, Hamnet. Multiple people texted me as they exited the theater, “The best actress race is over.” It’s hard to come up with arguments in the other direction: Buckley gives the kind of full-bodied performance her fans have come to expect, but now in an emotionally riveting drama that’s bound to capture every single Academy voter’s attention and is a top contender to win best picture.
The case against her: As mentioned just above, it’s challenging to come up with a contrarian Buckley take, but let’s try it anyway. Hamnet is a little quiet right now as it wins over regional festival audiences, and it’s possible the movie won’t regain the level of hype that surrounded it back in early September. Not likely, but I suppose it’s possible.
2. Chase Infiniti, One Battle After Another
Age: 25
Previous nominations: 0
Previous wins: 0
The case for her: By now, many of us have memorized the astonishing basics of Chase Infiniti’s story: Named after characters from Batman Forever and Toy Story, she only booked her first TV role two years ago (in Apple TV’s Presumed Innocent). For her first movie, she found herself on set with director Paul Thomas Anderson and star Leonardo DiCaprio. Warner Bros.’ decision to campaign Infiniti as a lead actress, when many had assumed she’d go supporting, is a way of clearing a path for her co-stars Teyana Taylor and Regina Hall. Still, it’s also a vote of confidence in Infiniti’s performance as Willa, the daughter of former political revolutionaries who becomes embroiled in their past fights and has to forge ahead to make her own path. Even in a movie this big and sprawling, she truly dominates.
The case against her: Female ingenues tend to fare much better with Oscar than men (just ask Anora’s Mikey Madison), but it’s still possible some voters will have a “wait your turn” mentality about this newly minted star. Infiniti is also less of a lead than many of the actresses in this race, which could make it easier for even fans of One Battle After Another to overlook her.
3. Cynthia Erivo, Wicked: For Good
Age: 38
Previous nominations: 3 (best actress and best original song for Harriet, 2020; best actress for Wicked: Part One, 2025)
Previous wins: 0
The case for her: The first Wicked made Cynthia Erivo a bigger star than ever, and Wicked: For Good will be aiming to match the first film’s 10 Oscar nominations and maybe even notch a few more. There’s no “Defying Gravity” in the second part of the story, but Erivo’s Elphaba has multiple big moments, including a new original song.
The case against her: If Erivo couldn’t win best actress for the part of Wicked that does include her showstopper song, how likely is it to happen for this one? There’s also the internal competition from co-star Ariana Grande, whose role is even bigger in the stage show’s second act (and thus in the movie sequel) and could prompt vote-splitting, even though she’s once again campaigning for supporting actress. (Just because actors campaign in one category doesn’t mean Academy members are obligated to vote for them in that category, as LaKeith Stanfield’s surprise best supporting actor nomination for Judas and the Black Messiah once proved.)
4. Amanda Seyfried, The Testament of Ann Lee
Age: 39
Previous nominations: 1 (best supporting actress for Mank, 2021)
Previous wins: 0
The case for her: The ambitious musical biopic from Mona Fastvold relies heavily on Amanda Seyfried’s central performance. She plays a woman driven by deep religious conviction, leading a small band of followers across the Atlantic to establish a community in upstate New York that would become known as the Shakers. Seyfried sings and dances in a way you’ve never seen in a musical before, and turns this historic figure into a living, breathing human being.
The case against her: The Testament of Ann Lee is bold, which means it won’t be for everyone, and getting picked up by Searchlight Pictures just a few weeks ago means it has some ground to make up in the fall awards race. It will need its fans — count me among them — to get the word out.
5. Renate Reinsve, Sentimental Value
Age: 37
Previous nominations: 0
Previous wins: 0
The case for her: After breaking out with American audiences in 2021’s The Worst Person in the World, Renate Reinsve reunites with writer-director Joachim Trier for the even more acclaimed Sentimental Value, a sprawling family drama in which Reinsve plays the actress daughter of a world-famous director (Stellan Skarsgård). Most of the film’s emotional, searing moments — quiet and restrained as they can be — rest on Reinsve’s extraordinarily expressive face.
The case against her: A hit at Cannes, where it finished second to Palme d’Or winner It Was Just an Accident, Sentimental Value remains a strong across-the-board contender. Still, its true ensemble nature might make it hard for voters to single Reinsve out from fellow actresses Elle Fanning and Inga Ibsdotter Lilleaas, both of whom are campaigning in the supporting category. (Skarsgård, unfair as it may be, has the advantage of being the only major male role in the film, and is also arguably the lead, but running in supporting.)
6. Rose Byrne, If I Had Legs I’d Kick You
Age: 46
Previous nominations: 0
Previous wins: 0
The case for her: A comedic MVP for years now (Bridesmaids, Spy, Neighbors), Rose Byrne was a revelation for many Sundance goers when If I Had Legs I’d Kick You, the searing and darkly funny motherhood drama from director Mary Bronstein, premiered there earlier this year. Byrne is making the fall festival rounds, too, hopefully winning over moviegoers who might be scared off by the film’s intense premise: about a frazzled mother whose life begins to fall apart as her daughter struggles with an undefined illness. Still, those on the fence ought to be lured in by Bronstein’s mastery of tone and Byrne’s unbelievably raw performance at the center. (See it in theaters now.)
The case against her: Even the film’s fans — again, count me among them — admit it’s a challenging watch, and with the ongoing trend toward acting nominees drawn almost entirely from best picture nominees, Byrne will have to work hard to keep her smaller film in the mix.
7. Emma Stone, Bugonia
Age: 36
Previous nominations: 5 (best supporting actress for Birdman, 2015; best actress for La La Land, 2017; best supporting actress for The Favourite, 2019; best actress and best picture as producer for Poor Things, 2024)
Previous wins: 2 (best actress, La La Land and Poor Things)
The case for her: A taut three-hander about two men (best actor contender Jesse Plemons and newcomer Aidan Delbis) who kidnap Emma Stone’s powerful pharmaceutical executive, Bugonia, won over Venice and Telluride audiences, proving it’s likely to play more broadly than director Yorgos Lanthimos’ last film, Kinds of Kindness. Stone, already a two-time best actress winner, should now be automatically considered a nominee unless proven otherwise.
The case against her: Bugonia does seem a bit more divisive than Lanthimos’ Oscar hits Poor Things and The Favourite; I’ll finally see it this weekend, so I’ll report back! Academy voters are clearly fond of Stone, but if the movie doesn’t connect, they may be inclined to move on to other contenders.
8. Sydney Sweeney, Christy
Age: 28
Previous nominations: 0
Previous wins: 0
The case for her: A massive star whose every move makes headlines, Sydney Sweeney could have rested on her celebrity laurels and her jeans ads — but instead she threw herself fully into Christy, the indie biopic of boxer Christy Martin. It’s a terrific performance in a sneakily moving drama, and puts Sweeney in an appealing and unusual position for a hot young star: the underdog.
The case against her: Black Bear Pictures, which produced the film, is moving into distribution for the first time to release Christy — and it’s unclear how strong their awards season strategy may be because it’s unproven. As with several of these other contenders, Sweeney will probably be in a challenging position trying to be her film’s likely sole nominee, unless costar Ben Foster can generate some awards heat as well.
9. Laura Dern, Is This Thing On?
Age: 58
Previous nominations: 3 (best actress for Rambling Rose, 1992; best supporting actress for Wild, 2015; best supporting actress for Marriage Story, 2020)
Previous wins: 1 (best supporting actress, Marriage Story)
The case for her: Though Is This Thing On? may seem from the outside like more of a showcase for star Will Arnett and co-writer, director, co-star and camera operator (true) Bradley Cooper, those who saw it at the New York Film Festival — my colleague Chris included — say it’s much more of a two-hander, the story of a marriage in collapse in which Laura Dern has plenty of moments to shine. A member of the Academy’s Board of Governors and a reasonably recent winner, Dern is as much of an insider as you can be — when she does good work, the Academy is bound to notice.
The case against her: Is This Thing On? is getting a relatively late start in the season, and it’s still unclear how much this tragicomedy can hold its own alongside some of the more heavy-duty Oscar entries. Dern is also a supporting contender this year for Jay Kelly, and while that performance won’t necessarily split her votes here, it does divide her campaigning time.
10. Jennifer Lawrence, Die My Love
Age: 35
Previous nominations: 4 (best actress for Winter’s Bone, 2011; best actress for Silver Linings Playbook, 2013; best supporting actress for American Hustle, 2014; best actress for Joy, 2016)
Previous wins: 1 (best actress, Silver Linings Playbook)
The case for her: Allow me to repeat a lot of what I wrote above about Stone. Jennifer Lawrence is an Oscar winner and still a star, teaming up with a revered auteur (in this case, Lynne Ramsay) for a divisive drama — this one about a woman experiencing post-partum psychosis. Since Lawrence’s last Oscar nomination for Joy in 2016, Lawrence hasn’t taken on many roles this challenging and immersive, and it will be tempting to reward her for really going for it again.
The case against her: Scheduled for release from Mubi in early November, Die My Love has been oddly absent from the fall festival calendar, with rumors that Ramsay has re-edited the film since its Cannes premiere. A small, challenging movie like this generally needs fall festival attention to break through with audiences and voters; it’s unclear if Die My Love will be able to pull that off.
11. Tessa Thompson, Hedda
Age: 42
Previous nominations: 0
Previous wins: 0
The case for her: On the fringes of Oscar conversation for her previous work in the Creed films and Passing, Tessa Thompson is front and center in Nia DaCosta’s bold reinvention of Hedda Gabler, as the impetuous, vicious and endlessly fascinating Hedda —a woman trapped in a marriage she hates with secrets to burn. Thompson is the chaotic center of the visually gorgeous film.
The case against her: Costume dramas not directed by Yorgos Lanthimos aren’t as popular with the Oscars as they used to be, even costume dramas as unusual and inventive as Hedda. The film, which Amazon MGM is releasing this month, likely needs a bit more critical acclaim to help Thompson become a major contender.
12. Kate Hudson, Song Sung Blue
Age: 46
Previous nominations: 1 (best supporting actress for Almost Famous, 2001)
Previous wins: 0
The case for her: There are rhinestones or sequins in nearly every shot of the trailer for this Christmas release (watch it above), a kind of Neil Diamond jukebox musical about a scrappy cover band led by Kate Hudson and Hugh Jackman. It sounds like ideal holiday season counter-programming, and also a perfect vehicle for Hudson’s distinctive onscreen charm, which blazed onscreen with her first and only Oscar nomination for Almost Famous and doesn’t seem to have dimmed since.
The case against her: “Neil Diamond cover band” does not sound like Oscar bait even in this era of a newly expansive Academy, and though I’ve predicted a strong Golden Globes run for Hudson, an Oscar lineup will likely be harder to crack.
13. Julia Roberts, After the Hunt
Age: 57
Previous nominations: 4 (best supporting actress for Steel Magnolias, 1990; best actress for Pretty Woman, 1991; best actress for Erin Brockovich, 2001; best supporting actress for August: Osage County, 2014)
Previous wins: 1 (best actress, Erin Brockovich)
The case for her: Julia Roberts doesn’t often play roles that fully take advantage of her still-megawatt star persona. After the Hunt is not exactly Pretty Woman, but it’s rewarding to see Roberts work with an auteur like Luca Guadagnino, challenging her inherent likability as she plays a college professor whose life unravels in the modern cancel culture era.
The case against her: Reviews for After the Hunt have been awfully mixed, and it will need a strong fall box office performance to linger in the conversation (it’s out in wide release this week). The last time Roberts was in the Oscar mix with a smaller movie, for 2018’s Ben Is Back, her star power wasn’t quite enough to get it over the line, and that may happen again here.
14. June Squibb, Eleanor the Great
Age: 95
Previous nominations: 1 (best supporting actress for Nebraska, 2014)
Previous wins: 0
The case for her: Her scrappy Oscar campaign for Thelma last year didn’t result in a nomination, but it did help give us Squibb and her Eleanor the Great director, Scarlett Johansson, presenting together at the Oscars, a delightful preview of the warm comic tone of the film. In remarkable command of her gifts in her mid-90s, Squibb leads the small-scale, wistful comedy about a woman mourning the death of her best friend, who tells a simple lie that spins out of control.
The case against her: Eleanor the Great is a small movie, even compared to the other indies we’ve discussed here, and though distributor Sony Pictures Classics is very good at shepherding those through the season, it’s unclear if this one will have enough staying power to help Squibb make Oscar history as the oldest nominee ever.