8 Ways the Election Changes the Oscar Race
8 Ways the Election Changes the Oscar Race
How will Academy voters choose to speak to this moment? The films and studios best and worst positioned
The day after Election Day, after I’d taken the kids to school in a fog and stared into the middle distance for a while, I chanced sending a text to a fellow awards season reporter: “Are you ready for my post-election Oscar hot take?”
We’d all known for weeks that the outcome of the election would have a big impact on the vibes of the Oscar race, but I personally hadn’t accounted for what we’ve got from the Democrat-dominated Hollywood: a resounding, frozen defeat, coupled with a looming sense of dread and a total lack of guidance, for now at least, on what to do next.
I don’t expect that to last — by the time the Golden Globes happen in early January, just like last time, our greatest speechifiers will be ready. But in this moment of pause and reflection, we may as well try to see what’s coming next. So here are my questions about what the mood of the Oscar race may look like between now and March, and how nearly all of our major best picture contenders will fit into them.
I. How Are We Feeling About America These Days?
Here’s one prediction I’ll throw out: The upside-down image of the Statue of Liberty seen in the opening moments of The Brutalist and on its poster is going to be seen a lot in the coming months. Brady Corbet’s mid-century epic walks a fascinating line between celebrating American ambition and criticizing the ruthless capitalism that feeds off it, a message that already feels more potent as a band of tech-world elites prepares for major influence at the White House (more on them later).
A handful of other contenders get into some broader ideas about America’s purpose. RaMell Ross’s Nickel Boys, set at a Jim Crow-era reform school in Florida, captures the horrors of that period as well as the resilience of the Black kids who survived it; those concerned that a second Trump administration will set society back might see Nickel Boys as a potent reminder of what that might mean.
Jesse Eisenberg’s A Real Pain — the story of American cousins confronting their family’s past in Poland — is small-scale in every way that The Brutalist is grand, but both have sharp ideas about America’s impact across generations of families. Greg Kwedar’s similarly delicate Sing Sing, about a prison theater program, finds incredible depth of emotion in depicting the ways people can rise above the punitive systems our country has put in place.
Finally, there’s September 5, about the efforts of the ABC Sports team to cover the 1972 Olympics hostage situation, which makes heroes of underdog American journalists. It’s hard to say how much rallying around journalism we’re going to see in real life this go-round, but if that spirit catches, September 5 will be right there to represent it.
II. Where Are the Movies About Banding Together?
Let’s pause for a history lesson. Not every best picture winner speaks directly to the moment in which it was released, but some of them do. Moonlight, famously, was the emotional underdog story perfect for the 2017 Oscars, months into the first Trump era. The Hurt Locker (2009) captured the disillusion over the end of the Iraq War era. There is truly no better encapsulation of the Boomer-ascendant Clinton era than 1994’s Forrest Gump.
Right now, though, I’m thinking about Mrs. Miniver, 1942’s best picture winner, filmed while the United States was entering World War II and rushed into theaters on the literal command of President Roosevelt. The story of everyday British people enduring the horrors of the Blitz, Mrs. Miniver was the perfect war propaganda for Americans who were just getting used to the idea of joining the fight.
I’m not trying to pretend that Blitz, Steve McQueen’s new film set in the same period as Mrs. Miniver, is opening into the same kind of unified, patriotic environment — it’s pretty much the opposite, really. But McQueen’s commitment to depicting the real, multiracial Britain that existed at the time — and mixing the sentimentality around his young boy character with some sad-eyed realism about the toll of war — makes Blitz a World War II saga that’s very well-suited to our times. That’s a campaign message I can certainly imagine Apple crafting a little bit down the road.
There are two more movies out there explicitly about teamwork and overcoming adversity, and they’re already locked in a fascinating battle for what’s perceived as a single best picture slot. That would be The Wild Robot, DreamWorks Animation’s tale of a robot becoming one with the animals, and Pixar’s megahit Inside Out 2, about all the creatures in our brains trying very hard to regulate our emotions (especially this past week). For either to be perceived as more than just a big hit for children they would need to connect themselves to a broader, resonant message — and I suspect they’ve just found it.
III. Will We Want More Movies About Women?
Kamala Harris spent far less of her campaign talking about the potential of being the first woman president than Hillary Clinton did, but they both lost to a convicted felon anyway. It’s too early to tell if the outrage this time will match what happened in 2017, when there was a Women’s March in Sundance and the #MeToo movement transformed Hollywood.
But it’s not hard to imagine a movie about women having a bit of extra power right now. Wicked has begun to screen more widely for critics and is being pretty widely embraced, not only as a lavishly staged bit of escapism but as a moving story about two women sticking it to an unfair, male-led system. Sure, that’s probably a bit too much political import to apply to what’s only the first half of a Broadway adaptation. But emotions are running high right now, and Wicked may well be able to harness all of them.
I had thought that a Harris election might be a boost for Anora, the Palme d’Or winner that’s been our quiet best picture frontrunner for a few months now, particularly as it continues to soar at the box office. Mikey Madison’s electric lead performance as a fearless, foul-mouthed sex worker felt like female empowerment for a potential new era. But after an election that was apparently so determined by the high cost of living, Sean Baker’s film about strivers on the margins of society might have an extra bit of resonance. That’s probably a sign of a great movie — no matter the political climate, your message finds its target.
IV. How About Trans People?
Republicans spent millions on ads demonizing trans people and were richly rewarded for their efforts, which makes now a particularly terrifying time for trans people and their loved ones. An awards campaign is a small thing compared to the very real threats out there . . . but the Oscars are still poised to nominate an openly trans actress for the first time ever: Emilia Pérez star Karla Sofía Gascón. That’s a symbolic first that may now be even more important, even if some bubbles of pushback are also beginning to emerge.
I Saw the TV Glow is one of the most acclaimed movies of the year, and director Jane Schoenbrun may already be one of the most influential trans filmmakers in the world. The film netted multiple Gotham Award nominations that I assumed might be the end of its awards run, but who knows. The bold A24 release is exactly the kind of film that could score a lone best original screenplay nomination, a perfect way to acknowledge Schoenbrun as a major emerging talent. Might that campaign now take on new resonance?
V. Does Anyone Want To See a Movie About an Election?
I told a few friends before the election that there was a very specific scenario that would lead to a best picture win for Conclave: a protracted vote-counting process that ended with Kamala Harris as the winner.
Conclave is, after all, the one Oscar contender this year that’s actually about an election, albeit the sequestered, all-male process of selecting a new pope. Following all the behind-the-scenes drama, coalition-building and petty grievances that go into the election, it’s a very clear metaphor for our much larger real-world elections, but a lot more fun to watch up close.
Now that our own real-world election has turned out in the way most of Hollywood dreaded, will there be the same appetite to watch this group of cardinals count their votes? Conclave does include its own brief female empowerment moment, thanks to Isabella Rossellini’s nun character and her well-timed curtsy. And its twist ending nods to the potential of a world — or in this case, a Catholic church — that’s less rigidly divided. Could that progressive message be the right balm for Hollywood’s disappointed voters?
VI. How About a Movie About Trump?
It was always going to be hard to gauge the post-election fate of The Apprentice, the biopic about a young Donald Trump starring Sebastian Stan and Jeremy Strong. Compelling and scary, and I think appropriately sympathetic to the young version of the re-elected president, The Apprentice has a lot to say about how a rich kid from Queens turned into the Trump of today.
But I’ll be honest: I have a hard time imagining anyone wanting to sit down with this movie, knowing that Trump will be the dominant cultural figure for yet another four years.
VII. Will Anyone Want to Root For the Tech Companies?
It may turn out that Silicon Valley’s upending of Hollywood norms was just a sneak preview for what’s in store at the White House, with Elon Musk at the new president’s right hand and Jeff Bezos, Mark Zuckerberg, Sundar Pichai and Tim Cook “quietly courting” Trump weeks before the election was even called.
Might this result in a moment of chickens coming home to roost in Hollywood? Oscar voters could support more traditional Hollywood studios like last year’s best picture champ Universal, which is backing Wicked and The Wild Robot. Paramount is in the mix with Gladiator II and is soon to be owned by Democratic donor David Ellison — but his dad and the source of his fortune Larry Ellison is a major Trump donor, so maybe that’s not the best rallying cry.
Of course, if best picture statues were only awarded based on the impeccable morals of the studio’s owners we’d never have the Oscars in the first place. What about major A24 funder Josh Kushner, who’s a big AI booster and whose brother is the President Elect’s son-in-law and advisor? What about the most classic studio of all, MGM, which has Nickel Boys and Challengers this season but is also now owned by famed op-ed writer Jeff Bezos? Cook may have made Apple, the studio behind Blitz, an easy target by publicly congratulating Trump on his win — but do we really think Netflix’s Ted Sarandos isn’t also trying to figure out ways for his business to succeed under the new regime?
As with any other Oscar season campaign, it may just depend on which narrative takes hold the strongest. If both tech giants and some studios seem to be cozying up to the new administration, perhaps none will make easy targets for protests.
VIII. What If Escapism Is What We Really Want?
Be honest: You’ve considered shutting out the news between now and Jan. 20. Hollywood is usually even better at providing escape from challenging times than actually addressing them, and best picture winners from 1929’s The Broadway Melody to 2017’s The Shape of Water have reaped the benefits.
Gladiator II might be the likeliest contender to provide this respite, even though its story of standing up against political corruption may feel pretty relevant as well. Same goes for Wicked as well as Dune Part II, which offers a literal escape to another world but also warnings about what happens when a leader buys too much into his own hype.
Then there’s The Substance, the gloriously gonzo body horror film that’s been cruising through the indie box office all fall, and offers gross-out thrills with just enough commentary about women and aging to feel like it has something to say. Watching Demi Moore claw at her own face in a mirror might not sound like the same kind of escapism as The Broadway Melody, but maybe that’s just 2024 for you.
Schoenbrun Isn’t remotely influential.
In the UK many readers of the Times and Telegraph are frothing over McQueen 's film claiming it is historically inaccurate with black faces. Of course they are idiots every port city had very small communities from East Asia, South Asia, Africa and the Caribbean. Mostly men with local white wives and their children. There is a wonderful documentary made in WW2 about two such sisters evacuated to a tiny village I believe in Northamptonshire and focuses on one girl chosen to be the May Queen. I believe at least one of the sisters would end up living in the US as adults.The movie used to be available to stream at the BFI website. It was of course meant as propaganda, originally not aimed primarily at the UK but for the African colonies. Still a lovely short film.